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Horror In Venezuela: Stock Market Crashes

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A terrifying political battle is unfolding in Venezuela where Maduro is attempting to dissolve Congress (by influencing the courts). Maduro is trying to dissolve Congress because they are trying to recall him. The Digital Journal writes…

Maduro’s side has started discussions to request a consultation with the constitutional chamber of the Supreme Court with a view to achieving “the abolition of this National Assembly” ruling coalition spokesman Didalco Bolivar told a news conference.

The IBC Index, which tracks the 15 largest companies traded on the Caracas Stock Exchange (Venezuela), has crashed as the political drama unfolds.

The Washington Post reports that Venezuelans are storming supermarkets and attacking trucks as food supplies dwindle.

The Oil Bubble Pop Is To Blame

The problem in Venezuela is that the price of oil collapsed thanks to Saudi Arabia targeting the US shale industry. The Venezuela bolívar is a Petro-currency and so its value crashed along with oil. The falling value of the bolívar pushed inflation through the roof. Consumer prices are up more than 700%.

Rating agencies reports and credit default swaps estimate a high probability of default on Venezuela’s debt. In 2015, the implied probability of default during the (Read More….)

PrivateBancorp Takeover Big +24% Win

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February 28, 2016: PrivateBancorp to be promoted to S&P400 index after the close of trading on February 29, 2016. S&P SmallCap 600 constituent PrivateBancorp Inc. (PVTB) will replace Sirona Dental Systems Inc. (SIRO) in the S&P MidCap 400 after the close of trading on Monday, February 29, 2016. (Read More….)

Media Manipulation: 2nd Half Stronger Than First

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The mainstream financial media is repeating the yearly claim that analysts say the second half of 2016 will be better than the first.

The media is reporting that analysts believe earnings growth will come in for Q3 2016 at +1.1%, and +7.4% for Q4 2016.

This prediction for stronger earnings in the 2nd half of 2016 occurs every year, at this time of year, in the mainstream media.

Listen to Alison Deans on CNBC predicting that the 2nd half of 2016 is going to be better.

What is the reasoning for these fantastic projections of earnings growth? What is the catalyst that’s going to make magical customers appear out of thin air with money to spend? Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.

In 2015, I Was A Sucker

In 2015, I fell for it. It seemed reasonable that the second half of 2015 was going to get stronger. I don’t know why it seemed reasonable, it just did. Maybe the idea of oil falling seemed like it would have boosted consumer spending. I just bought what the media was shoveling and didn’t question it. The prediction by these so called “analysts” was (Read More….)

ISIS Terror In Middle East: Plans Attack Against San Francisco

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ISIS attacks are on the rise in the Middle East and around the world. Three coordinated Islamic State bombing attacks on Yemeni government forces killed 38 people in the southern port city of Mukalla on Monday.

ISIS recruitment thrives in underdeveloped countries. Yemen is the Arab Peninsula’s poorest nation. In March of 2016, the Yemeni Rial crashed from $0.00465 to the US dollar, down to $0.004.

A Saudi-led coalition began a military campaign in Yemen a year ago with the aim of preventing Iran-allied Houthi rebels and forces loyal to Yemen’s ex-president Ali Abdullah Saleh from taking control of the country.

The interactive chart below highlights the attack in Mukalla amongst other major ISIS attacks in the Middle East and North Africa.

New ISIS Threat Against San Francisco and Las Vegas

A new Islamic State video was released on Sunday as people in San Francisco were celebrating LGBT pride over the weekend. The video called for mass shooting attacks in San Francisco and Las Vegas. The video is the second from ISIS praising the Florida massacre.

ISIS said that an attack against Florida was coming just three days before the Orlando massacre. The Gateway Pundit outlined the timeline here.

(Read More….)

Why I’m Shorting Small Caps On Huge Up Day

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I’m scaling into a short small caps TZA position this morning. There is not real buy-side conviction volume which suggests the huge upward move at market open today is nothing but short covering.

The other tell that something is not right about this huge upward move at market open is how the bond market is responding. The 3 year Treasury bond price chart shows that bond traders are not buying the upward move.

This is a high-risk speculative trade so better that you don’t follow me on this move unless you know what you are doing.

UPDATE 12:40PM PST US: Broken even on the trade. Istanbul airport explosions pushed market down just enough to break-even. Yikes, almost lost a good chunk of money shorting the market. Will set back in cash and look for another bear trade setup in the coming days.

Nigel Farage Warns European Parliament That The Euro Is Failing

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Nigel Farage was jeered and booed as he spoke at the European Parliament after the Brexit vote. You have to hear how Mr. Farage responded.

Here is the text of Nigel Farage’s speech:

Isn’t it funny? When I came here 17 years ago and I said that I wanted to lead a campaign go get Britain out of the European Union, you all laughed at me. Well, I have to say, you’re not laughing now, are you?

And the reason you’re so upset, the reason you’re so angry, has been perfectly clear from all the angry exchanges this morning. You, as a political project, are in denial. You are in denial that your currency is failing.

Just look at the Mediterranean. As a policy to impose poverty and the rest of the Mediterranean, you’ve done very well. And you are in denial over Mrs Merkel’s call last year for as many people as possible to cross the Mediterranean into the European Union. It has led to massive divisions within countries and between countries.

But the biggest problem you’ve got, and the main reason the United Kingdom voted the way that it did, is that you (Read More….)