Monthly Archives: June 2012

Institutional Trader Spy Week Of June 25 – 29 2012

Posted on by

Last week was the biggest week for institutional buying all year. The TICK detected institutional buying on Wednesday at market open, Thursday at market close, and Friday at market open and at market close.

Tracking financial press releases down to the 15 minute period in which institutional trader buying began, we can get inside the minds of institutional traders and see what matters most to them by filtering out all the other noise.

Most likely causes of institutional buying on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday were:

June 27th Wednesday – Durable goods report released that showed orders for durable goods climbed. Pending home sales report released an hour later than showed home sales surged in May to a 2 year high.


June 28th Thursday – Markets weak for the first half of day as Germany’s Angela Merkel was set for press conference announcing no deal reached. Right before the press conference, Merkel canceled and returned to negotiations. Institutions traders began buying in anticipation that Merkel canceling the press conference meant some type of deal had been reached.

June 29th Friday – European leaders strike deal and markets soar as massive institutional buying and short covering take place.

Song: The One That Got Away
Album: Wall Street – Working On the Edge
Artist: Lance Jepsen
Available on iTunes now at http://itunes.apple.com/us/album/wall-street-working-on-edge/id529290850

Weekend Stock Screener 6/30/12

Posted on by

Some big name companies appear on the weekend stock screener this week.

Comcast, Amazon, yeah, these are the companies that institutional traders buy and sell in because they are highly liquid stocks.

This stock screener scans the entire market and finds the best stocks the market has to offer. It scans all the major indices including pink sheets, OTCBB, and even ETFs.

The stock screener uses three moving averages and looks for bullish moving average crossovers: a.k.a. The Alligator Method because it resembles the jaws of an alligator opening up.

The top performing stock posted last Saturday is AMRN, up a whopping 11.49% followed by UPL up 9.86%


The top performing stocks originally posted on Saturday, June 9th 2012 are:

#1 = ARNA (+51%)
#2 = PCYC (+38%)

Here are the top stock screener picks for June 2012:

#1 = ARNA (+51%)
#2 = PCYC (+38%)
#3 = SPPI (+24%)
#4 = AMRN (+11%)
#5 = UPL (+9%)

The spreadsheet below updates in real-time and will keep track of the performance for about 1 month before they are removed. Below the live updating spreadsheet is a video slide show of each of these stocks so you can look at all the charts in just a couple of minutes.

Enjoy!

Disclosure: I do not hold any of these stocks in my own trading account.

Song: The One That Got Away
Album: Wall Street – Working On the Edge
Artist: Lance Jepsen
Available on iTunes now at http://itunes.apple.com/us/album/wall-street-working-on-edge/id529290850

Avoid Taking Losses on Stocks

Posted on by

Taking losses on stocks is nothing new. In fact, somewhere along the line you will lose money in your own stock trading. This is bound to happen – whether you are new to trading or been trading for a long time. This doesn’t necessarily mean that losses are easy to deal with. However, by learning about the errors involved that causes trading loss, you can avoid them.

Avoiding The Errors and Lower Your Chances of Taking Losses on Stocks

The Ego Problem – In most cases, traders with a good deal of money and luck will start overestimating their own stock trading abilities. The trader will then, due to all his profitable success, start seeing an unrealistic picture of potential market achievements – until things suddenly change. When this happens, the trader will, without thinking, jump into any market that seems profitable. The truth, however, is that the problem will only stop once the trader runs out of money. In order to prevent a big stock trading loss from happening to you, make sure you never allow your ego to take control of your trading.


Loss Due To Strategy – In some cases, taking losses on stocks are also caused by strategies used in trading. The fact is, you are going to face a loss somewhere in your own trading. The deal is – you have to approach these losses in a professional and sensible manner without your emotions getting in the way. Put short, accept the inevitability of your losses, understand your own trading mentality, and toggle strategies to find a balance of what could limit them. In such cases, don’t ever make the mistake of reacting to the situation in a frantic manner.

Taking Risks – There are certain times when losses should not happen. Generally, in such cases, traders fail to adhere to risk profiles and they end up managing their funds poorly. Moreover, when a loss strikes, the trader counters by taking up more risk with the hopes of winning back the losses. In other cases, the trader takes on minimal risk which poses no money making opportunities. The best way to avoid losses, however, is to avoid bad investments, period. Discipline is key!


While the aforementioned advice does not guarantee you will not be taking losses on stocks (as losses in trading are inevitable), it surely guarantees that you will limit your losses – provided that your investments and funds are well managed, and you don’t make the same mistakes as outlined above.

Using Moving Averages Trading Strategy – Simplified

Posted on by

The moving averages trading strategy – like most other technical indicators are primarily used by traders in determining the trend in any given financial asset. However, with hundreds of technical indicators available in the market today, choosing one that works for you might not be an easy task, especially if you are new to trading. This said, while some indicators remain popular, very few have actually proved to be as reliable as moving averages.

The Moving Averages Trading Strategy Defined

The core functions of the moving average are to help the trader identify a trend and reversal in a financial asset, measuring the strength in the momentum of the given asset, and determining potential support and resistance levels in the asset. Put short, it helps you not only define the trend, but also recognize changes in the trend.

Using The Moving Averages Trading Strategy


While there are several moving averages available in trading, most traders will generally give preference to Simple Moving Average (SMA), and Exponential Moving Average (EMA), as a technical indicator.

Simple Moving Average Use and Settings – The Simple Moving Average is created when the closing price of an asset over a set period of time is averaged. In this case, whatever you have set your simple moving average to – your charting package will reflect the equivalent thereof, however, in the opposite direction. Here, the closing price is averaged and the trader is presented with the first initial dot. Thereafter, the formula will keep dropping an old period of data and add a new period of data which will give you a continuous line.

Preferred settings in Simple Moving Average: 200 periods

When the price reaches the 200 period moving average mark, you will come to find that the price will either bounce for a while. Hereafter, the price will either bounce away completely or break through.

Exponential Moving Average Use and Settings – The Exponential Moving Average trading strategy is without a doubt said to be the most popular of all moving averages. Unlike the Simple Moving Average, where preference is given to the presented data, Exponential Moving Average gives preference to recent price movement.


Preferred settings in Exponential Moving Average: 12, 26, and 200 EMA

The 12 and 26 moving average is generally used in creating the convergence divergence. The 200 moving average simply gives the trader an indication (usually via candlestick), when to sell. However, the price has to exceed the 200 moving average mark.

In which ever moving average trading strategy you choose to engage, the principle remains the same as with most other technical indicators. Since moving averages are used to determine buy and sell signals, make sure you:

- buy when the price closes above the moving average
- sell when the price closes below the moving average

If you are just getting started on trading and you are considering the use of the moving averages trading strategy, it is in your benefit to choose according to which market you find yourself to be in.

Weekend Stock Screener 6/23/12

Posted on by

The Saturday weekend stock screener scans all markets including both large cap and small cap stocks for the best looking setups the market has to offer using the Alligator method.

This week’s stock screener shows a broad mix of stocks and no unifying theme like we had a couple of weeks ago with short ETFs.

Here are the top performing stocks from the weekend stock screener scan since 5/12/12:

ARNA = 49%
REED = +33%
SCO = 27%
PCYC = +21%
DNO = +19%
BZQ = +15%

I do not accept payment to list any stocks on GuerillaStockTrading.com and I do not hold any of the stocks listed in my personal trading account.

Enjoy!

Song: Stock Phoenix
Album: Wall Street – Working On the Edge
Artist: Lance Jepsen
Available on iTunes now at http://itunes.apple.com/us/album/wall-street-working-on-edge/id529290850

Institutional Trader Spying Week Of June 18 – 22 2012

Posted on by

Last week was an uneventful week in terms of institutional trader activity being detected.

Monday, June 18th 2012, shortly after 11:00 AM ET was the only institutional buying of the week. But even so, the buying was very lite. It was so lite that we are unable to detect what sector that institutional trading firm moved money into.

The institutional trader activity was detected minutes after news broke on Spain’s bonds soaring past 7%. Logic dictates then that if the news did indeed cause some small institutional trader activity, it was most likely a move out of Spain’s markets and into U.S. markets. Again, the buying was so lite that we are unable to detect which U.S. sector most of the money moved into.


Interestingly, we did not have institutional activity following the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. That tells us that there was no surprise there as institutional traders already priced in the extension of The Twist by the Federal Reserve.

Song: Risking It All
Album: Wall Street: Working On The Edge
Artist: Lance Jepsen
Available on iTunes Now At http://itunes.apple.com/us/album/wall-street-working-on-edge/id529290850

OMG! Stop Trading and Move To Cash

Posted on by

The S&P 500 has gone from an uptrend to a sidelines rating in one day! Folks, if you haven’t already, you need to get out of the market and move to the sidelines and the safety of cash.

Don’t get crazy and go short yet. We want to wait for a strong downtrend rating before we go short. But you should go to cash. Cash is awesome. Cash is safe. Cash is king. You want to be hunkered down in your sniper nest watching the other fools below battle it out. Let the bodies pile up on the battlefield. Then once a dominant group emerges, place your bets with that group.

Today’s reversal on the S&P 500 was significant today because it occurred right at the Fibonacci Retracement level of 61.8%. In otherwords, this may be the end of the bounce and the resumption of the larger downtrend.

From a seasonal perspective, especially when looking at what the S&P 500 did last year, everything makes sense. In 2011, the S&P 500 sold off in May at the start of the worst 6 months of the year. In June, a counter-trend took place that lasted about 3 weeks. In July, the downtrend resumed as the market ultimately fell to its year low at the end of July. This year, the exact same set up appears to be taking place.

For those of you who have signed up for JB’s Swing Trading service through me, have you noticed that JB isn’t texting you new picks right now? Again, this is another value of JB’s service because it means that the massive JB network of semi-professional traders who trade at home for a living, are not buying stocks right now but instead are sitting in cash and waiting for a pullback before taking any new positions. Knowing this is extremely valuable because it tells you that you shouldn’t be going long anything right now either.

In the video below, I’m going to show you the chart of the S&P 500 and why I think you need to close out your positions and move to the sidelines and the safety of cash if you haven’t already.

Kick Your Trading Up To The Next Level With JB! He’s Killing It Right Now! Click Here To Learn More

Kick Your Trading Up To The Next Level With JB! He’s Killing It Right Now! Click Here To Learn More

TVIX Swing Trade Setup

Posted on by

I’m taking another run at TVIX.

Notice how we’ve had 4 up days in a row on the S&P 500. That doesn’t happen very often folks. In fact, it’s the only time we’ve had 4 up days in a row in all of 2012!

These abnormalities make excellent money making opportunities but they don’t come along very often.

I’m betting that the market is going to go down in a day or two from now and when it does, I’ll make a quick 10% in TVIX and then I’ll go back into the safety of cash.


TVIX is near its 52 week low, a level that it has bounced off of twice now. The 52 week low in TVIX is $5.84. I bought TVIX today at $6.07. After the market closed, I’m happy with my perfect entry right off the day’s low. How luck is that. Perhaps TVIX will fall back to $5.84 but even if it does, I’m happy with my $6.07 entry.

As far as the news goes, I’d like the Fed to do nothing and have the market sell off as Bulls will be disappointed. What I don’t want is some Fed announcement that pushes markets a lot higher.

Remember, this is not a Fed play. The profit thesis is that the market seldom is up 4 days in a row and so this is a straight up count of up days versus down days.

I’m not getting married to TVIX. I’m just going on a quick date. As such, any spike up and I’ll take profits quickly and move back to the safety of cash.