Happy New Year 2013!

happy-new-year-2013

Thank you everyone for making 2012 the first profitable year for GuerillaStockTrading.com

When I first began this blog back in 2009, it was hard. For the first two years, I lost money. Many stock trading blogs were shut down and the websites sold off. Today, you can still find a graveyard of stock market websites that haven’t been updated in years.

In this episode I have a special Happy New Year message for you. I follow up with a slide show of funny moments from 2012 captured in my cartoon and meme artwork. The slide show is set to background music of the three best selling songs off my album Wall Street: Working On the Edge.

I wish you and your family a rocking Happy New Year!

Four Tips On Creating An Investment Plan

Every one who self directs their investments has to make fundamental decisions that affect their household budget. But, when all is said and done, whether you chose to buy a stock or a mutual fund, the only things that are important are the prices you buy at and what price you sell at. Easy as that, right? Just follow performance and all will be good. Except, the current market is fickle and has more sell-offs than a Rocky Mountain goat trail. Holding on to your focal point can be rough.

Buy now, sell now, sell later, hold, buy later – stomach grumbling from thinking about this? You are not alone. The moment of truth for all investors happens when they click on the “buy” or “sell” button. However, etch this into your brain:

We all are capable of staying on top of our trading success with greater focus by choosing correct actions that come from a thought out game plan rather than an almost “lottery-like” dream. Gaining confidence by following your mental plan and you will reach a comfort level and confidence level that makes hitting those buttons a natural and stress free event. Of course, developing a plan that uses a lot of common sense from the start is a huge undertaking. Creating and following an action plan is, in all likelihood, the most effective way an amateur can learn to become a flourishing investor.

So what are these common sense ideas that our individual brains are able to process while creating an action plan?

1. The old Buffet Rule (not the new Buffet Rule about billionaires paying their fair share in taxes): Choose a stock that you know and like. Buffett invests only in companies that he has a sound understanding of.


2. Selecting stocks tasks is an intellectual judgment, not an emotional lottery pick. If you trade believing that you are going to get rich quick, you will most likely end-up desperate and broke. Do not even start trading with that kind of attitude because you will likely lose whatever you have.

3. Make a plan for selling and buying. Be smart – not greedy. Active investors must first determine initial buys and when to add to holdings. Your plan must include when you sell – balance risk with profit, gain or loss. If, as an investor you are in for the long-haul, commonly known as a buy and hold investor, it makes sense to have a fall back sell position or stop-loss.

4. Stay focused. Know what is happening in the markets in general and with your investments in particular. Never lose sight of your plan. While


this sounds easy, many investors will tell you it’s not. The key is to let your mind and decision-making process be the variable that you control to make sure your plan is followed. Suppose you plan on selling a particular stock when it hits $10. When you decide this, the stock is at $9.75. (You bought at $5). The next day the stock is at $9. Wait for it to come back? But the following week it skips down to $8 and is now at $7.75 – still waiting? A person who has mastered the psychology of the market would have sold at $9. This investor knows that “faith” is not an investment strategy and it will only serve you poorly. Make a plan and stick to it.

The Most Ominous Doomsayers You Won’t Believe

Last year, Republicans Chris Christie and Meredith Whitney predicted that the world was going to end in 2011 with municipal defaults.

Whitney told investors to expect 100 and probably more municipal defaults in 2011, a domino fall that would bring the $2.9 trillion muni-bond market down with “hundreds of millions” in losses.

She said towns and cities across the U.S. were going to fire government workers en mass and that garbage was going to pile up on lawns, and entire city blocks would burn because fire stations would sit empty.

This dooms day prediction sent the market that finances local government into a downtrend. About $50 billion has been cashed out of municipal-bond funds since last year. Investors haven’t finished selling, with $3.69 billion being pulled out from municipal bonds in April of 2011.

Republicans are engaged in cutting off the purse strings of Congress for this President in the name of blocking any policies he attempts to pass in his less than 2 years left in office.

Obviously it’s hypocritical that the Republicans, who took a budget surplus left to them by Clinton and the Democrats, and turned it into a multi-trillion dollar deficit, are now suppose to be champions of cutting spending. When they were in office they were the biggest spenders ever. But minus the glaring hypocrisy, look at how disingenuous these doomsayers are.

Chris Christie used tax dollars to take a free helicopter ride to his son’s baseball game. Obviously the whole we need to cut spending is a bunch of baloney and is nothing more than a play from the Republican’s play book to block any Obama policies for the next 2 years in the name of ‘saving money’ while secretly, they take helicopter rides for personal enjoyment at tax payers expense.

And what about Meredith Whitney and her dire predictions of 100 municipal defaults in 2011? A report issued this week by Deutsche Bank says that defaults by local governments are actually declining. The firm figures a total of 39 defaults for all of 2011. As of last month there have been 14 defaults totaling $605 million. Furthermore, the report argues that 2011 is shaping up to have the lowest number of defaults since the recession began three years ago. Deutsche also says that to reach even $200 billion in defaults — out of the “hundreds of billions” that Whitney predicted — more than $800 million in defaults will need to occur “every single day (including weekends) from May until the end of the year.”

Whitney has been hitting Fox news and MSNBC hard lately, arguing that her prediction of billions of defaults this year was really, well, more of an estimate. Focusing on the timing of the defaults “misses the point,” she says; rest assured, a flood of defaults will happen.

The one who focused on the timing of the defaults was Whitney who said in 2010, that within 12 months, 100 municipal defaults would occur.

JA Solar Holdings (JASO) Rockn Video

My latest pick is JA Solar (JASO). This is a rock’n research video I put together about why I like this stock. I bought 97 shares of this stock on 11/9/10 at $9.60

I see this as a longer term play.

Sound track used with permission: “You Can’t Tell Me How It Is” by Slowride.

Enjoy and rock on!

U.S. Beats Estimates – Adds 151,000 Jobs In October 2010

The U.S. economy added jobs in October for the first time in five months as private-sector hiring picked up.


The economy added 151,000 non-farm jobs in October which beat estimates of 60,000. But the unemployment rate remained at 9.6% as many people began to look for work again.

Energy Stocks Continue In Strong Uptrend

Earnings releases continue this week with Microsoft (MSFT), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Procter & Gamble (PG), Texas Instruments (TXN), Sprint (S), DuPont (DD) and Chevron (CVX) on the list.

Daily Chart of Microsoft (MSFT)

MSFT Stock Chart

Daily Chart of Exxon Mobil (XOM)

XOM Stock Chart

Daily Chart of Procter & Gamble (PG)

PG Stock Chart

Daily Chart of Texas Instruments (TXN)

TXN Stock Chart


Daily Chart of Sprint (S)


Sprint Technical Analysis


Daily Chart of DuPont (DD)


Dupont Stock Chart


Daily Chart of Chevron (CVX)


Chevron Stock Chart Microsoft and Sprint are the two lagging charts shown above. That means that the market is not expecting really great things from either company.


Energy is another matter with all the energy stocks shown above in strong uptrends.


  

China Stocks Continue To Soar

There’s certain days when the mainstream media falls down on the job of reporting activities in the stock market.

Today was one of those days.

China stocks continued their strong uptrend today which mostly went un-reported by mainstream media.

I wrote back in September that China stocks looked hot. I have since not been disappointed with my prophetic outlook.

Daily Chart of iShares China 25 (FXI)

I rate this chart as being in a strong uptrend.

What’s most impressive is the Accum/Dist indicator that shows heavy accumulation in China stocks on pullbacks.

Notice also the breakaway gap up that took place on Wednesday, October 13, 2010. It looks very much like the gap up that occurred on September 13.

The three china stocks that I really like are LDK, TSTC, and XIN.

Daily Chart of LDK Solar (LDK)

I’m currently long in this stock. I’ve made a lot of money trading in and out of this stock. In fact, it’s been my top money making stock pick for 2010.

The bullish Resurrection Cross back around $10 was big.

This stock is currently in a strong uptrend.

In the video below, I look at the stock charts of TSTC and XIN, two more hot china stocks in strong uptrends.

The best way to play strong uptrending China stocks is to buy on Fibonacci Retracements.

Week Ahead Short Sellers Target Foreclosure Mess

U.S. banks will be the focus next week as some big banks report earnings and investors fear that the forced halt in foreclosure proceedings could hit the financial sector hard.


Bank shares dropped sharply on Friday on high volume, continuing a drop from the previous day.


Bank of America shares hit their lowest in more than a year. The nation’s largest mortgage lender, fell 9 percent during the week. Nearly 600 million shares traded on Friday, the most since April 2009.


Daily Chart Of Bank of America (BAC)


BAC Stock ChartShort sellers piled into BAC over the last couple of days as bulls capitulated and went crying home to mama.


This stock is in a strong downtrend and you had plenty of warning from the Accum/Dist indicator weeks ago when it formed a negative divergence to the price.


Hedge funds are shorting BAC because they figure many banks did not follow proper due diligence when foreclosing on homes whose owners were not making mortgage payments. These cutt-throat traders figure that this will result in costly litigation, fines and additional mortgage repurchases.


The buzz on the street among even more aggressive short sellers is that this situation could expand to the housing market if this uncertainty about foreclosures prevents buyers from buying properties under foreclosure.


Banks Reporting Next Week


Banks reporting results include Wells Fargo (WFC), Bank of America (BAC), and Citigroup Inc (C), three of the largest mortgage lenders in the nation.


In the past week we saw analysts lower forward earnings estimates for Goldman Sachs (GS), PNC Financial (PNC), and Citigroup (C).


Daily Chart of Financials Sector (XLF)


XLF ChartLast week tested the all important $15 resistance and upper rectangle wall with a swing move down. XLF has been a swing traders dream.


With that said, the life-cycle of the sideways Rectangle channel has been exceeded. The next swing down test of the lower channel wall at $13.26 should prove interesting.