The Dow continues to have a strong uptrend rating. The big news is that the S&P 500 has now joined the Dow. Both the Dow and the S&P 500 have a strong uptrend rating. The Nasdaq has an uptrend rating. Even bigger news is that the Russell 2000 now has an uptrend rating.
The Russell 2000 is starting to show some upside leadership. For the last 2 days, small caps have been leading large caps higher. Two days does not a market make and so we need confirmation of this leadership role over the coming days and weeks.
The S&P 500 has just had a Resurrection Cross with the 50 day moving average crossing above the 200 day moving average.
All the major indices are in uptrends which means the Bulls have strengthened their advantage over the Bears. The Bulls are on top at mid-week. Let's look at the market internals and see if they support this Bulls on top thesis.
The percentage of stocks on the NYSE that are trading above their 50 day moving average has risen to 78%. That's bullish folks. The percent of stocks trading above their 200 day moving average has risen to 49%. That's close enough to a neutral rating.
On the Nasdaq Advance Decline Volume chart, clearly the Bulls have the advantage when you compare up and down volume to total volume as evidenced by the high reading above the 0 line on the NYUD to NYTV ratio chart.
The VIX continues to be in a downtrend and has just had a Burial Cross. The VIX was the lone wolf several weeks ago being the only chart that pointed to a bull run. In fact, the VIX continues to favor the Bulls with its ongoing downtrend rating. Even better, the VIX has just had a Burial Cross with the 50 day moving average crossing below the 200 day moving average.
Market internals support the Bulls on top thesis for trading the remainder of this week.
Illumina (ILMN), the stock I was stopped out of for a loss and then had to buy back today, has had huge news. They've created a machine that can sequence someone's entire genome in 24 hours. Currently, it takes about 2 to 3 weeks. It will be sold as an upgrade to existing customers of HiSeq 2000 machines for $50,000. The cost to sequence a genome with this machine is estimated to be between $1,000 and $3,000. This machine will start selling in the second half of 2012. The stock exploded on the news with huge buy side volume. My long term profit thesis on this stock is still intact.
In the video below, I'll introduce you to another hot looking stock that I have not bought yet for my own personal trading account and I'll answer several subscriber questions.
Disclosure: Long Illumina (ILMN)
The Dow continues to have a strong uptrend rating. The big news is that the S&P 500 has now joined the Dow. Both the Dow and the S&P 500 have a strong uptrend rating. The Nasdaq has an uptrend rating. Even bigger news is that the Russell 2000 now has an uptrend rating.
The Russell 2000 is starting to show some upside leadership. For the last 2 days, small caps have been leading large caps higher. Two days does not a market make and so we need confirmation of this leadership role over the coming days and weeks.
The S&P 500 has just had a Resurrection Cross with the 50 day moving average crossing above the 200 day moving average.
All the major indices are in uptrends which means the Bulls have strengthened their advantage over the Bears. The Bulls are on top at mid-week. Let's look at the market internals and see if they support this Bulls on top thesis.
The percentage of stocks on the NYSE that are trading above their 50 day moving average has risen to 78%. That's bullish folks. The percent of stocks trading above their 200 day moving average has risen to 49%. That's close enough to a neutral rating.
On the Nasdaq Advance Decline Volume chart, clearly the Bulls have the advantage when you compare up and down volume to total volume as evidenced by the high reading above the 0 line on the NYUD to NYTV ratio chart.
The VIX continues to be in a downtrend and has just had a Burial Cross. The VIX was the lone wolf several weeks ago being the only chart that pointed to a bull run. In fact, the VIX continues to favor the Bulls with its ongoing downtrend rating. Even better, the VIX has just had a Burial Cross with the 50 day moving average crossing below the 200 day moving average.
Market internals support the Bulls on top thesis for trading the remainder of this week.
Illumina (ILMN), the stock I was stopped out of for a loss and then had to buy back today, has had huge news. They've created a machine that can sequence someone's entire genome in 24 hours. Currently, it takes about 2 to 3 weeks. It will be sold as an upgrade to existing customers of HiSeq 2000 machines for $50,000. The cost to sequence a genome with this machine is estimated to be between $1,000 and $3,000. This machine will start selling in the second half of 2012. The stock exploded on the news with huge buy side volume. My long term profit thesis on this stock is still intact.
In the video below, I'll introduce you to another hot looking stock that I have not bought yet for my own personal trading account and I'll answer several subscriber questions.
Disclosure: Long Illumina (ILMN)
The Dow continues to have a strong uptrend rating. The big news is that the S&P 500 has now joined the Dow. Both the Dow and the S&P 500 have a strong uptrend rating. The Nasdaq has an uptrend rating. Even bigger news is that the Russell 2000 now has an uptrend rating.
The Russell 2000 is starting to show some upside leadership. For the last 2 days, small caps have been leading large caps higher. Two days does not a market make and so we need confirmation of this leadership role over the coming days and weeks.
The S&P 500 has just had a Resurrection Cross with the 50 day moving average crossing above the 200 day moving average.
All the major indices are in uptrends which means the Bulls have strengthened their advantage over the Bears. The Bulls are on top at mid-week. Let's look at the market internals and see if they support this Bulls on top thesis.
The percentage of stocks on the NYSE that are trading above their 50 day moving average has risen to 78%. That's bullish folks. The percent of stocks trading above their 200 day moving average has risen to 49%. That's close enough to a neutral rating.
On the Nasdaq Advance Decline Volume chart, clearly the Bulls have the advantage when you compare up and down volume to total volume as evidenced by the high reading above the 0 line on the NYUD to NYTV ratio chart.
The VIX continues to be in a downtrend and has just had a Burial Cross. The VIX was the lone wolf several weeks ago being the only chart that pointed to a bull run. In fact, the VIX continues to favor the Bulls with its ongoing downtrend rating. Even better, the VIX has just had a Burial Cross with the 50 day moving average crossing below the 200 day moving average.
Market internals support the Bulls on top thesis for trading the remainder of this week.
Illumina (ILMN), the stock I was stopped out of for a loss and then had to buy back today, has had huge news. They've created a machine that can sequence someone's entire genome in 24 hours. Currently, it takes about 2 to 3 weeks. It will be sold as an upgrade to existing customers of HiSeq 2000 machines for $50,000. The cost to sequence a genome with this machine is estimated to be between $1,000 and $3,000. This machine will start selling in the second half of 2012. The stock exploded on the news with huge buy side volume. My long term profit thesis on this stock is still intact.
In the video below, I'll introduce you to another hot looking stock that I have not bought yet for my own personal trading account and I'll answer several subscriber questions.
Disclosure: Long Illumina (ILMN)
The first five trading days in January have closed up! Chalk one up for the Bulls. Here are the actual gains for the first five trading days in January:
Dow = +1.43%
S&P 500 = +1.84%
Nasdaq = +2.74%
Russell 2000 = +1.7%
The Nasdaq is leading so far for the month of January. This is bullish folks. We like to see tech leading the market higher. The reason we like to see tech leading is that in sector rotation theory, the Nasdaq leads the market out of a recession. The reason tech leads the market out of a recession is that companies utilize technology to increase worker productivity and to lower costs.
We also want to see small caps leading the market higher and that's something we don't have right now. December and January should have small-caps leading large-caps higher. This small-cap leadership is missing right now. So while the Nasdaq leading the market up is good, we need to see leadership coming from small-caps.
The January Barometer is comprised of two parts: The First Five Trading Days, and The Entire Month Of January. The Bulls have won the first five trading days. Now we'll see if the month of January closes up. Over 80% of the time, if the month of January closes up, so does the market for the entire year.
A subscriber writes in to ask what stocks within the strong uptrending Dow look the best. Here are the top strong uptrending stocks on the Dow with the best looking charts: General Electric (GE), Chevron (CVX), Home Depot (HD), Boeing (BA), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Travelers (TRV), Cisco (CSCO), McDonalds (MCD), Intel (INTC), Walt Disney (DIS), and Merck (MRK).
Another subscriber writes in to ask about the trend of Oil. Folks, Oil is in a strong uptrend but there's more to Oil than technicals. External news events are always impacting the price of Oil. The possibility of a war with Iran pushes Oil up for a couple of days, then Saudi Arabia comes out and says they will increase production to make up for any short fall caused by a war with Iran and Oil falls back down. Oil is so politicized and so impacted by external news events that you can't just look at the chart to trade it. But I figure that this subscriber already knows that so, just looking at the chart, it's in a strong uptrend. DIG is in an uptrend.
The first five trading days in January have closed up! Chalk one up for the Bulls. Here are the actual gains for the first five trading days in January:
Dow = +1.43%
S&P 500 = +1.84%
Nasdaq = +2.74%
Russell 2000 = +1.7%
The Nasdaq is leading so far for the month of January. This is bullish folks. We like to see tech leading the market higher. The reason we like to see tech leading is that in sector rotation theory, the Nasdaq leads the market out of a recession. The reason tech leads the market out of a recession is that companies utilize technology to increase worker productivity and to lower costs.
We also want to see small caps leading the market higher and that's something we don't have right now. December and January should have small-caps leading large-caps higher. This small-cap leadership is missing right now. So while the Nasdaq leading the market up is good, we need to see leadership coming from small-caps.
The January Barometer is comprised of two parts: The First Five Trading Days, and The Entire Month Of January. The Bulls have won the first five trading days. Now we'll see if the month of January closes up. Over 80% of the time, if the month of January closes up, so does the market for the entire year.
A subscriber writes in to ask what stocks within the strong uptrending Dow look the best. Here are the top strong uptrending stocks on the Dow with the best looking charts: General Electric (GE), Chevron (CVX), Home Depot (HD), Boeing (BA), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Travelers (TRV), Cisco (CSCO), McDonalds (MCD), Intel (INTC), Walt Disney (DIS), and Merck (MRK).
Another subscriber writes in to ask about the trend of Oil. Folks, Oil is in a strong uptrend but there's more to Oil than technicals. External news events are always impacting the price of Oil. The possibility of a war with Iran pushes Oil up for a couple of days, then Saudi Arabia comes out and says they will increase production to make up for any short fall caused by a war with Iran and Oil falls back down. Oil is so politicized and so impacted by external news events that you can't just look at the chart to trade it. But I figure that this subscriber already knows that so, just looking at the chart, it's in a strong uptrend. DIG is in an uptrend.
The first five trading days in January have closed up! Chalk one up for the Bulls. Here are the actual gains for the first five trading days in January:
Dow = +1.43%
S&P 500 = +1.84%
Nasdaq = +2.74%
Russell 2000 = +1.7%
The Nasdaq is leading so far for the month of January. This is bullish folks. We like to see tech leading the market higher. The reason we like to see tech leading is that in sector rotation theory, the Nasdaq leads the market out of a recession. The reason tech leads the market out of a recession is that companies utilize technology to increase worker productivity and to lower costs.
We also want to see small caps leading the market higher and that's something we don't have right now. December and January should have small-caps leading large-caps higher. This small-cap leadership is missing right now. So while the Nasdaq leading the market up is good, we need to see leadership coming from small-caps.
The January Barometer is comprised of two parts: The First Five Trading Days, and The Entire Month Of January. The Bulls have won the first five trading days. Now we'll see if the month of January closes up. Over 80% of the time, if the month of January closes up, so does the market for the entire year.
A subscriber writes in to ask what stocks within the strong uptrending Dow look the best. Here are the top strong uptrending stocks on the Dow with the best looking charts: General Electric (GE), Chevron (CVX), Home Depot (HD), Boeing (BA), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Travelers (TRV), Cisco (CSCO), McDonalds (MCD), Intel (INTC), Walt Disney (DIS), and Merck (MRK).
Another subscriber writes in to ask about the trend of Oil. Folks, Oil is in a strong uptrend but there's more to Oil than technicals. External news events are always impacting the price of Oil. The possibility of a war with Iran pushes Oil up for a couple of days, then Saudi Arabia comes out and says they will increase production to make up for any short fall caused by a war with Iran and Oil falls back down. Oil is so politicized and so impacted by external news events that you can't just look at the chart to trade it. But I figure that this subscriber already knows that so, just looking at the chart, it's in a strong uptrend. DIG is in an uptrend.
The Dow continues to be in a strong uptrend. This signals large, blue chip, defensive stocks are dominant right now. The Russell 2000 has a sidelines rating. We don't have small caps leading mid cap and large cap stocks higher. This is a huge warning signal about the power of the current swing move up. Now, if the major indices go into a strong uptrend rating, the Russell 2000 will establish itself in its rightful leadership role as it leads stocks higher. This is a great buy signal to use folks. Stay on the sidelines and the safety of cash until you see the Russell 2000 going into a strong uptrend and lead the rest of the major indices higher. The S&P 500 has an uptrend rating and so does the Nasdaq.
Bulls strengthened their position over Bears; however, all eyes are on the first five trading days in January which ends next Monday. If the first five trading days close up, over 80% of the time the market closes up for the entire year.
The U.S. dollar continues to have a strong uptrend rating which is putting a downward pressure on gold. Speaking of gold, I have yet to get an apology from any gold bugs who trolled the Stock Trading Master channel and predicted $2,000 gold by the end of 2011. In fact, in September of 2011 when gold crossed about $1,900, many of the most popular gold bug newsletters raised their forecast on gold to $2,500 by the end of 2011. It never happened folks. This should teach you a valuable lesson. Don't bring ideology into your stock trading. Don't bring Glenn Beck and Fox News into your trading. Don't bring Republicanism into your trading. Ideologues should never try and make money in the stock market because ultimately, they'll lose it all. The reason you don't bring your ideology and politics into trading is that you then become emotionally attached to your trades. Don't become married to your stocks or your opinion on a stock or market. As human beings, we assign emotions and human qualities to objects. It's called personification. Leave personification in your English class. Don't bring it into your stock trading.
So go 10 year Treasury yields, so goes the market. 10 year Treasury yields have formed a Symmetrical Triangle pattern. Which way they break out will dictate which way the market goes. If 10 year yields go up (10 year bond prices go down), the market will go up. If you're long anything in this market, you want 10 year yields to go up. Put another way, you want to see investors selling out of 10 year bonds and moving their money into stocks. We can also speculate that the smart money is watching the bond market right now. If institutional traders begin selling out of 10 year bonds because of the pathetically low yield and because the prospect for future economic growth increases, you'll see the smart money buying up stocks.
The Dow continues to be in a strong uptrend. This signals large, blue chip, defensive stocks are dominant right now. The Russell 2000 has a sidelines rating. We don't have small caps leading mid cap and large cap stocks higher. This is a huge warning signal about the power of the current swing move up. Now, if the major indices go into a strong uptrend rating, the Russell 2000 will establish itself in its rightful leadership role as it leads stocks higher. This is a great buy signal to use folks. Stay on the sidelines and the safety of cash until you see the Russell 2000 going into a strong uptrend and lead the rest of the major indices higher. The S&P 500 has an uptrend rating and so does the Nasdaq.
Bulls strengthened their position over Bears; however, all eyes are on the first five trading days in January which ends next Monday. If the first five trading days close up, over 80% of the time the market closes up for the entire year.
The U.S. dollar continues to have a strong uptrend rating which is putting a downward pressure on gold. Speaking of gold, I have yet to get an apology from any gold bugs who trolled the Stock Trading Master channel and predicted $2,000 gold by the end of 2011. In fact, in September of 2011 when gold crossed about $1,900, many of the most popular gold bug newsletters raised their forecast on gold to $2,500 by the end of 2011. It never happened folks. This should teach you a valuable lesson. Don't bring ideology into your stock trading. Don't bring Glenn Beck and Fox News into your trading. Don't bring Republicanism into your trading. Ideologues should never try and make money in the stock market because ultimately, they'll lose it all. The reason you don't bring your ideology and politics into trading is that you then become emotionally attached to your trades. Don't become married to your stocks or your opinion on a stock or market. As human beings, we assign emotions and human qualities to objects. It's called personification. Leave personification in your English class. Don't bring it into your stock trading.
So go 10 year Treasury yields, so goes the market. 10 year Treasury yields have formed a Symmetrical Triangle pattern. Which way they break out will dictate which way the market goes. If 10 year yields go up (10 year bond prices go down), the market will go up. If you're long anything in this market, you want 10 year yields to go up. Put another way, you want to see investors selling out of 10 year bonds and moving their money into stocks. We can also speculate that the smart money is watching the bond market right now. If institutional traders begin selling out of 10 year bonds because of the pathetically low yield and because the prospect for future economic growth increases, you'll see the smart money buying up stocks.
The Dow continues to be in a strong uptrend. This signals large, blue chip, defensive stocks are dominant right now. The Russell 2000 has a sidelines rating. We don't have small caps leading mid cap and large cap stocks higher. This is a huge warning signal about the power of the current swing move up. Now, if the major indices go into a strong uptrend rating, the Russell 2000 will establish itself in its rightful leadership role as it leads stocks higher. This is a great buy signal to use folks. Stay on the sidelines and the safety of cash until you see the Russell 2000 going into a strong uptrend and lead the rest of the major indices higher. The S&P 500 has an uptrend rating and so does the Nasdaq.
Bulls strengthened their position over Bears; however, all eyes are on the first five trading days in January which ends next Monday. If the first five trading days close up, over 80% of the time the market closes up for the entire year.
The U.S. dollar continues to have a strong uptrend rating which is putting a downward pressure on gold. Speaking of gold, I have yet to get an apology from any gold bugs who trolled the Stock Trading Master channel and predicted $2,000 gold by the end of 2011. In fact, in September of 2011 when gold crossed about $1,900, many of the most popular gold bug newsletters raised their forecast on gold to $2,500 by the end of 2011. It never happened folks. This should teach you a valuable lesson. Don't bring ideology into your stock trading. Don't bring Glenn Beck and Fox News into your trading. Don't bring Republicanism into your trading. Ideologues should never try and make money in the stock market because ultimately, they'll lose it all. The reason you don't bring your ideology and politics into trading is that you then become emotionally attached to your trades. Don't become married to your stocks or your opinion on a stock or market. As human beings, we assign emotions and human qualities to objects. It's called personification. Leave personification in your English class. Don't bring it into your stock trading.
So go 10 year Treasury yields, so goes the market. 10 year Treasury yields have formed a Symmetrical Triangle pattern. Which way they break out will dictate which way the market goes. If 10 year yields go up (10 year bond prices go down), the market will go up. If you're long anything in this market, you want 10 year yields to go up. Put another way, you want to see investors selling out of 10 year bonds and moving their money into stocks. We can also speculate that the smart money is watching the bond market right now. If institutional traders begin selling out of 10 year bonds because of the pathetically low yield and because the prospect for future economic growth increases, you'll see the smart money buying up stocks.
The Dow is the only major index in an uptrend. The Dow leadership speaks to the defensive nature of most traders right now.
I'm crazy. I am betting on a swing move down in the markets. I'm playing this swing move down profit thesis via TVIX which I purchased today in my own trading account.
If something bad happens within the next day regarding Iran or something happens in Europe, fine. That will help fuel the swing move down. But really, this is not a fundamental play so I don't really care about the news or anything. This is a technical play only on a natural swing move down that I'm willing to bet is coming.
From a fundamental analysis point of view regarding seasonality, it could be really, really, stupid. I mean think about it. I'm betting on a swing move down during traditionally one of the strongest weeks of the year: the last trading week in December or the Santa Claus rally week.
The Nasdaq has a downtrend rating and it's leading the market lower. It has broken below its 200 day moving average.
The S&P 500 has a very weak uptrend rating. The previous resistance zone from 1267 to 1300 has been tested four times since October and each time the market has bounced down off this level.
The Russell 2000 has a downtrend rating. Did you notice that it lead the market lower today? That's something we haven't seen on the last two previous swing move downs. When small caps lead large caps lower, it suggests we could see a good swing move lower.
Gold has a downtrend rating. I was sad today folks because I found out that a gold bug I talk to has continued to buy gold on the way down. He bought gold at 1700 when I told him to book profits and move to the sidelines. He bought more gold today at 1550 even though I warned him about the danger of a dead cat bounce and roll over below the 200 day moving average line. His original plan was to ride gold up during its seasonal strong time of year which is October to December, then sell in January which begins its seasonally weak time of year. His logic was that since gold did not run up in the 4th quarter, the run up will probably come a little later this year. That's stupid and kind of sad. To a gold bug, gold is always a good buy. But you, a stock trading master, know that nothing is always a good buy. So now, this gold bug is throwing good money after bad and doubling down in order to lower his cost basis. He should have just listened to me and sold when I told him at 1700. He would be sitting on the sidelines with good profits and waiting for gold to go back into a strong uptrend to buy it again.
The U.S. dollar is in an uptrend which is putting gold into a downtrend. Europe appears to be headed into a recession. This is pushing the Euro into a strong downtrend. As the Euro goes down, the U.S. dollar goes up.
The Dow is the only major index in an uptrend. The Dow leadership speaks to the defensive nature of most traders right now.
I'm crazy. I am betting on a swing move down in the markets. I'm playing this swing move down profit thesis via TVIX which I purchased today in my own trading account.
If something bad happens within the next day regarding Iran or something happens in Europe, fine. That will help fuel the swing move down. But really, this is not a fundamental play so I don't really care about the news or anything. This is a technical play only on a natural swing move down that I'm willing to bet is coming.
From a fundamental analysis point of view regarding seasonality, it could be really, really, stupid. I mean think about it. I'm betting on a swing move down during traditionally one of the strongest weeks of the year: the last trading week in December or the Santa Claus rally week.
The Nasdaq has a downtrend rating and it's leading the market lower. It has broken below its 200 day moving average.
The S&P 500 has a very weak uptrend rating. The previous resistance zone from 1267 to 1300 has been tested four times since October and each time the market has bounced down off this level.
The Russell 2000 has a downtrend rating. Did you notice that it lead the market lower today? That's something we haven't seen on the last two previous swing move downs. When small caps lead large caps lower, it suggests we could see a good swing move lower.
Gold has a downtrend rating. I was sad today folks because I found out that a gold bug I talk to has continued to buy gold on the way down. He bought gold at 1700 when I told him to book profits and move to the sidelines. He bought more gold today at 1550 even though I warned him about the danger of a dead cat bounce and roll over below the 200 day moving average line. His original plan was to ride gold up during its seasonal strong time of year which is October to December, then sell in January which begins its seasonally weak time of year. His logic was that since gold did not run up in the 4th quarter, the run up will probably come a little later this year. That's stupid and kind of sad. To a gold bug, gold is always a good buy. But you, a stock trading master, know that nothing is always a good buy. So now, this gold bug is throwing good money after bad and doubling down in order to lower his cost basis. He should have just listened to me and sold when I told him at 1700. He would be sitting on the sidelines with good profits and waiting for gold to go back into a strong uptrend to buy it again.
The U.S. dollar is in an uptrend which is putting gold into a downtrend. Europe appears to be headed into a recession. This is pushing the Euro into a strong downtrend. As the Euro goes down, the U.S. dollar goes up.
The Dow is the only major index in an uptrend. The Dow leadership speaks to the defensive nature of most traders right now.
I'm crazy. I am betting on a swing move down in the markets. I'm playing this swing move down profit thesis via TVIX which I purchased today in my own trading account.
If something bad happens within the next day regarding Iran or something happens in Europe, fine. That will help fuel the swing move down. But really, this is not a fundamental play so I don't really care about the news or anything. This is a technical play only on a natural swing move down that I'm willing to bet is coming.
From a fundamental analysis point of view regarding seasonality, it could be really, really, stupid. I mean think about it. I'm betting on a swing move down during traditionally one of the strongest weeks of the year: the last trading week in December or the Santa Claus rally week.
The Nasdaq has a downtrend rating and it's leading the market lower. It has broken below its 200 day moving average.
The S&P 500 has a very weak uptrend rating. The previous resistance zone from 1267 to 1300 has been tested four times since October and each time the market has bounced down off this level.
The Russell 2000 has a downtrend rating. Did you notice that it lead the market lower today? That's something we haven't seen on the last two previous swing move downs. When small caps lead large caps lower, it suggests we could see a good swing move lower.
Gold has a downtrend rating. I was sad today folks because I found out that a gold bug I talk to has continued to buy gold on the way down. He bought gold at 1700 when I told him to book profits and move to the sidelines. He bought more gold today at 1550 even though I warned him about the danger of a dead cat bounce and roll over below the 200 day moving average line. His original plan was to ride gold up during its seasonal strong time of year which is October to December, then sell in January which begins its seasonally weak time of year. His logic was that since gold did not run up in the 4th quarter, the run up will probably come a little later this year. That's stupid and kind of sad. To a gold bug, gold is always a good buy. But you, a stock trading master, know that nothing is always a good buy. So now, this gold bug is throwing good money after bad and doubling down in order to lower his cost basis. He should have just listened to me and sold when I told him at 1700. He would be sitting on the sidelines with good profits and waiting for gold to go back into a strong uptrend to buy it again.
The U.S. dollar is in an uptrend which is putting gold into a downtrend. Europe appears to be headed into a recession. This is pushing the Euro into a strong downtrend. As the Euro goes down, the U.S. dollar goes up.
We are at the last trading week in December. The question on every trader's mind is will we have the traditional Santa Claus Rally that begins in the last trading week in December?
Folks, last year I was able to predict the Santa Claus rally around December 9th. You can watch last year's video that's still up on my channel. I made 90% last December by calling the Santa Claus rally and jumping early. This December though, I'm going to lose big on the month. I was able to predict the Santa Claus rally in 2010 because of the major indices going into strong uptrends early in the month. This December I still have not seen that. The Dow has just gone into a strong uptrend but the other major indices have not. This means that the Dow is leading the other major indices on the swing move up. That's not good. We want the Nasdaq or even the Russell 2000 to be leading the other major indices higher. When the Dow is leading, it speaks to the defensive nature, so far, of this swing move up.
The Nasdaq has a sidelines rating. As I talked about last week, the Nasdaq is lagging behind the other major indices. That's not what we'd like to see in a swing move up that we can trade and make money on.
The S&P 500 has an uptrend rating. It is just a hair weaker than the Dow. It's approaching that all important 1300 resistance. The volume falling over the last 3 days into the swing move up doesn't give us a whole lot of confidence, at this time, that the S&P 500 is going have the energy to break through the 1300 resistance level. Nevertheless, the S&P 500 has a normal uptrend rating as it approaches the upper wall of the trading range.
The Russell 2000 has a very weak uptrend rally. Again folks, we want to see smallcaps leading on a swing move up. In fact, during this time of year, smallcaps should be leading the market. We just don't see smallcap leadership yet and that really casts a huge warning signal over this recent swing move up.
So according to the trends of the major indices, the Bulls have a small advantage over the Bears going into trading next week. Let's look at some market internal indicators and see if they confirm this small Bulls advantage over Bears going into trading next week.
The percent of stocks on the NYSE that are trading above their 50 day moving average has climbed to 61%. Folks, that's a bullish bias. The percent of stocks trading above their 200 day moving average is at 38%, a bearish bias. Also, over the last 3 months, each time the percent of stocks trading above their 200 day MA has risen to close to 40%, the market has turned down. Therefore, keep your eyes on the important psychological level of 40%.
On the Advance Decline Volume on the Nasdaq, the Bulls have retaken the 0 line. This shows a bullish bias on the Nasdaq folks, which is conflicting with the sidelines trend rating. This is a temporary divergence. Either we will have the Bulls lose the 0 line, or the Nasdaq will move into an uptrend very quickly next week. Either way, something will give next week.
The TICK closed at 817 meaning that we had institutional traders buying last week. Now that options expiration has passed and tax selling is mostly done, it appears institutional traders are buying. What were institutional traders buying last week? Here are the top 5 performing sectors for the week:
1 = Energy (+5.23%)
2 = Financials (+4.86%)
3 = Industrials (+4.35%)
4 = Materials (+4.24%)
5 = Healthcare (+4.16%)
The VIX has a downtrend rating which is bullish. Just be careful here though. I got caught in a volatility squeeze last week when I tried to play TVIX. Volatility normally drops of going into the Christmas weekend. Nevertheless, the current downtrend rating on the VIX favors the Bulls.
So all the market internal indicators we track do favor the profit thesis that the Bulls have a small advantage over the Bears going into trading next week.
The U.S. dollar continues to be in an uptrend. This is keeping gold in a downtrend. It's not only putting a downward pressure on gold, it's pushing down the entire market. Don't think that a rising U.S. dollar is good for the stock market. Right now, it's not. This relationship will eventually change, but for now, the stock market is doing the inverse of the U.S. dollar, just like gold. The reason is because of the problems in Europe. Europe will pull down the world if countries default on their debt and can't raise enough money in bond auctions to pay their bills. So as the Euro goes down as the European crisis continues, it's pulling down the U.S. stock market as well. Thus, if you're long anything in this market, you want the U.S. dollar to go down and the Euro to strengthen.
Gold continues to have a downtrend rating. It's having trouble re-taking the 200 day moving average and it looks dangerously close to rolling over right here and taking the next leg down.
Fundamental analysis reports that moved markets last week were: Tuesday's Housing Starts, Thursday's GDP, and Friday's Durable Goods Orders and Personal Income and Outlays reports.
The Housing Starts report showed that new housing construction is showing signs of life in November-although the pulse is still weak. Housing starts in November rebounded 9.3 percent after slipping 2.9 percent in October. The November annualized pace of 0.685 million came in higher than market expectations for 0.636 million units and is up 24.3 percent on a year-ago basis.
The GDP report showed that economic growth for the third quarter was more sluggish than previously believed and the change in the component mix will have economists rethinking their forecasts for the fourth quarter. The Commerce Department for its third estimate for third quarter GDP growth nudged its number down to 1.8 percent annualized growth from the prior estimate of 2.0 percent annualized. Market expectations were for overall GDP growth to be unrevised.
The Durable Goods Orders report showed new orders for civilian aircraft led to a huge spike in durables orders. Otherwise, durables orders were modestly positive. New factory orders for durables surged 3.8 percent, following a no change the prior month (prior revised estimate, down 0.5 percent). The November boost was much higher than the consensus forecast for a 1.9 percent jump.
The Personal Income and Outlays report showed personal income and spending posted modest gains in November. Meanwhile, PCE price inflation was soft. Personal income in November grew 0.1 percent, following a 0.4 percent increase the month before. November's gain fell short of analysts' forecast for a 0.2 percent rise. However, the wages & salaries component slipped 0.1 percent after a 0.6 percent increase in October. The rise in personal income was led by gains in rental income and dividends combined with a decline in contributions for government social insurance.
There are no major fundamental analysis reports being released next week which should move the markets.
Monday, December 26 2011, the stock market will be closed for Christmas.
We are at the last trading week in December. The question on every trader's mind is will we have the traditional Santa Claus Rally that begins in the last trading week in December?
Folks, last year I was able to predict the Santa Claus rally around December 9th. You can watch last year's video that's still up on my channel. I made 90% last December by calling the Santa Claus rally and jumping early. This December though, I'm going to lose big on the month. I was able to predict the Santa Claus rally in 2010 because of the major indices going into strong uptrends early in the month. This December I still have not seen that. The Dow has just gone into a strong uptrend but the other major indices have not. This means that the Dow is leading the other major indices on the swing move up. That's not good. We want the Nasdaq or even the Russell 2000 to be leading the other major indices higher. When the Dow is leading, it speaks to the defensive nature, so far, of this swing move up.
The Nasdaq has a sidelines rating. As I talked about last week, the Nasdaq is lagging behind the other major indices. That's not what we'd like to see in a swing move up that we can trade and make money on.
The S&P 500 has an uptrend rating. It is just a hair weaker than the Dow. It's approaching that all important 1300 resistance. The volume falling over the last 3 days into the swing move up doesn't give us a whole lot of confidence, at this time, that the S&P 500 is going have the energy to break through the 1300 resistance level. Nevertheless, the S&P 500 has a normal uptrend rating as it approaches the upper wall of the trading range.
The Russell 2000 has a very weak uptrend rally. Again folks, we want to see smallcaps leading on a swing move up. In fact, during this time of year, smallcaps should be leading the market. We just don't see smallcap leadership yet and that really casts a huge warning signal over this recent swing move up.
So according to the trends of the major indices, the Bulls have a small advantage over the Bears going into trading next week. Let's look at some market internal indicators and see if they confirm this small Bulls advantage over Bears going into trading next week.
The percent of stocks on the NYSE that are trading above their 50 day moving average has climbed to 61%. Folks, that's a bullish bias. The percent of stocks trading above their 200 day moving average is at 38%, a bearish bias. Also, over the last 3 months, each time the percent of stocks trading above their 200 day MA has risen to close to 40%, the market has turned down. Therefore, keep your eyes on the important psychological level of 40%.
On the Advance Decline Volume on the Nasdaq, the Bulls have retaken the 0 line. This shows a bullish bias on the Nasdaq folks, which is conflicting with the sidelines trend rating. This is a temporary divergence. Either we will have the Bulls lose the 0 line, or the Nasdaq will move into an uptrend very quickly next week. Either way, something will give next week.
The TICK closed at 817 meaning that we had institutional traders buying last week. Now that options expiration has passed and tax selling is mostly done, it appears institutional traders are buying. What were institutional traders buying last week? Here are the top 5 performing sectors for the week:
1 = Energy (+5.23%)
2 = Financials (+4.86%)
3 = Industrials (+4.35%)
4 = Materials (+4.24%)
5 = Healthcare (+4.16%)
The VIX has a downtrend rating which is bullish. Just be careful here though. I got caught in a volatility squeeze last week when I tried to play TVIX. Volatility normally drops of going into the Christmas weekend. Nevertheless, the current downtrend rating on the VIX favors the Bulls.
So all the market internal indicators we track do favor the profit thesis that the Bulls have a small advantage over the Bears going into trading next week.
The U.S. dollar continues to be in an uptrend. This is keeping gold in a downtrend. It's not only putting a downward pressure on gold, it's pushing down the entire market. Don't think that a rising U.S. dollar is good for the stock market. Right now, it's not. This relationship will eventually change, but for now, the stock market is doing the inverse of the U.S. dollar, just like gold. The reason is because of the problems in Europe. Europe will pull down the world if countries default on their debt and can't raise enough money in bond auctions to pay their bills. So as the Euro goes down as the European crisis continues, it's pulling down the U.S. stock market as well. Thus, if you're long anything in this market, you want the U.S. dollar to go down and the Euro to strengthen.
Gold continues to have a downtrend rating. It's having trouble re-taking the 200 day moving average and it looks dangerously close to rolling over right here and taking the next leg down.
Fundamental analysis reports that moved markets last week were: Tuesday's Housing Starts, Thursday's GDP, and Friday's Durable Goods Orders and Personal Income and Outlays reports.
The Housing Starts report showed that new housing construction is showing signs of life in November-although the pulse is still weak. Housing starts in November rebounded 9.3 percent after slipping 2.9 percent in October. The November annualized pace of 0.685 million came in higher than market expectations for 0.636 million units and is up 24.3 percent on a year-ago basis.
The GDP report showed that economic growth for the third quarter was more sluggish than previously believed and the change in the component mix will have economists rethinking their forecasts for the fourth quarter. The Commerce Department for its third estimate for third quarter GDP growth nudged its number down to 1.8 percent annualized growth from the prior estimate of 2.0 percent annualized. Market expectations were for overall GDP growth to be unrevised.
The Durable Goods Orders report showed new orders for civilian aircraft led to a huge spike in durables orders. Otherwise, durables orders were modestly positive. New factory orders for durables surged 3.8 percent, following a no change the prior month (prior revised estimate, down 0.5 percent). The November boost was much higher than the consensus forecast for a 1.9 percent jump.
The Personal Income and Outlays report showed personal income and spending posted modest gains in November. Meanwhile, PCE price inflation was soft. Personal income in November grew 0.1 percent, following a 0.4 percent increase the month before. November's gain fell short of analysts' forecast for a 0.2 percent rise. However, the wages & salaries component slipped 0.1 percent after a 0.6 percent increase in October. The rise in personal income was led by gains in rental income and dividends combined with a decline in contributions for government social insurance.
There are no major fundamental analysis reports being released next week which should move the markets.
Monday, December 26 2011, the stock market will be closed for Christmas.
We are at the last trading week in December. The question on every trader's mind is will we have the traditional Santa Claus Rally that begins in the last trading week in December?
Folks, last year I was able to predict the Santa Claus rally around December 9th. You can watch last year's video that's still up on my channel. I made 90% last December by calling the Santa Claus rally and jumping early. This December though, I'm going to lose big on the month. I was able to predict the Santa Claus rally in 2010 because of the major indices going into strong uptrends early in the month. This December I still have not seen that. The Dow has just gone into a strong uptrend but the other major indices have not. This means that the Dow is leading the other major indices on the swing move up. That's not good. We want the Nasdaq or even the Russell 2000 to be leading the other major indices higher. When the Dow is leading, it speaks to the defensive nature, so far, of this swing move up.
The Nasdaq has a sidelines rating. As I talked about last week, the Nasdaq is lagging behind the other major indices. That's not what we'd like to see in a swing move up that we can trade and make money on.
The S&P 500 has an uptrend rating. It is just a hair weaker than the Dow. It's approaching that all important 1300 resistance. The volume falling over the last 3 days into the swing move up doesn't give us a whole lot of confidence, at this time, that the S&P 500 is going have the energy to break through the 1300 resistance level. Nevertheless, the S&P 500 has a normal uptrend rating as it approaches the upper wall of the trading range.
The Russell 2000 has a very weak uptrend rally. Again folks, we want to see smallcaps leading on a swing move up. In fact, during this time of year, smallcaps should be leading the market. We just don't see smallcap leadership yet and that really casts a huge warning signal over this recent swing move up.
So according to the trends of the major indices, the Bulls have a small advantage over the Bears going into trading next week. Let's look at some market internal indicators and see if they confirm this small Bulls advantage over Bears going into trading next week.
The percent of stocks on the NYSE that are trading above their 50 day moving average has climbed to 61%. Folks, that's a bullish bias. The percent of stocks trading above their 200 day moving average is at 38%, a bearish bias. Also, over the last 3 months, each time the percent of stocks trading above their 200 day MA has risen to close to 40%, the market has turned down. Therefore, keep your eyes on the important psychological level of 40%.
On the Advance Decline Volume on the Nasdaq, the Bulls have retaken the 0 line. This shows a bullish bias on the Nasdaq folks, which is conflicting with the sidelines trend rating. This is a temporary divergence. Either we will have the Bulls lose the 0 line, or the Nasdaq will move into an uptrend very quickly next week. Either way, something will give next week.
The TICK closed at 817 meaning that we had institutional traders buying last week. Now that options expiration has passed and tax selling is mostly done, it appears institutional traders are buying. What were institutional traders buying last week? Here are the top 5 performing sectors for the week:
1 = Energy (+5.23%)
2 = Financials (+4.86%)
3 = Industrials (+4.35%)
4 = Materials (+4.24%)
5 = Healthcare (+4.16%)
The VIX has a downtrend rating which is bullish. Just be careful here though. I got caught in a volatility squeeze last week when I tried to play TVIX. Volatility normally drops of going into the Christmas weekend. Nevertheless, the current downtrend rating on the VIX favors the Bulls.
So all the market internal indicators we track do favor the profit thesis that the Bulls have a small advantage over the Bears going into trading next week.
The U.S. dollar continues to be in an uptrend. This is keeping gold in a downtrend. It's not only putting a downward pressure on gold, it's pushing down the entire market. Don't think that a rising U.S. dollar is good for the stock market. Right now, it's not. This relationship will eventually change, but for now, the stock market is doing the inverse of the U.S. dollar, just like gold. The reason is because of the problems in Europe. Europe will pull down the world if countries default on their debt and can't raise enough money in bond auctions to pay their bills. So as the Euro goes down as the European crisis continues, it's pulling down the U.S. stock market as well. Thus, if you're long anything in this market, you want the U.S. dollar to go down and the Euro to strengthen.
Gold continues to have a downtrend rating. It's having trouble re-taking the 200 day moving average and it looks dangerously close to rolling over right here and taking the next leg down.
Fundamental analysis reports that moved markets last week were: Tuesday's Housing Starts, Thursday's GDP, and Friday's Durable Goods Orders and Personal Income and Outlays reports.
The Housing Starts report showed that new housing construction is showing signs of life in November-although the pulse is still weak. Housing starts in November rebounded 9.3 percent after slipping 2.9 percent in October. The November annualized pace of 0.685 million came in higher than market expectations for 0.636 million units and is up 24.3 percent on a year-ago basis.
The GDP report showed that economic growth for the third quarter was more sluggish than previously believed and the change in the component mix will have economists rethinking their forecasts for the fourth quarter. The Commerce Department for its third estimate for third quarter GDP growth nudged its number down to 1.8 percent annualized growth from the prior estimate of 2.0 percent annualized. Market expectations were for overall GDP growth to be unrevised.
The Durable Goods Orders report showed new orders for civilian aircraft led to a huge spike in durables orders. Otherwise, durables orders were modestly positive. New factory orders for durables surged 3.8 percent, following a no change the prior month (prior revised estimate, down 0.5 percent). The November boost was much higher than the consensus forecast for a 1.9 percent jump.
The Personal Income and Outlays report showed personal income and spending posted modest gains in November. Meanwhile, PCE price inflation was soft. Personal income in November grew 0.1 percent, following a 0.4 percent increase the month before. November's gain fell short of analysts' forecast for a 0.2 percent rise. However, the wages & salaries component slipped 0.1 percent after a 0.6 percent increase in October. The rise in personal income was led by gains in rental income and dividends combined with a decline in contributions for government social insurance.
There are no major fundamental analysis reports being released next week which should move the markets.
Monday, December 26 2011, the stock market will be closed for Christmas.
We are not in a trending market, but rather a news driven trading market. This means that trend based trading systems are not going to be as useful in this market.
The Dow has a sidelines rating. It's smack in the middle of its last swing move low of 11231, and swing move high of 12257. You should not be in this market until either the bulls or the bears establishes a dominant position over the other.
The Nasdaq has a downtrend rating. It is leading the other major indices lower.
The S&P 500 has a sidelines rating and looks a lot like the Dow.
The Russell 2000 has a sidelines rating. We are not getting any market leadership, either up or down, from small caps.
According to the trends of the major indices, you should be on the sidelines and the safety of cash right now.
Market internals are split as well which reinforces the sidelines ratings. The percent of stocks on the NYSE that are trading above their 50 day moving average is 43%: that's a bearish bias. The percent of stocks trading above their 200 day moving average is 29%: a bearish bias. The VIX has a very weak downtrend rating: this is a bullish signal for the markets. The Nasdaq Advance-Decline Volume has a bearish bias. The amount of stocks making new highs relative to those making new lows on the NYSE has a slight bullish bias with the new lows to the total ratio falling below the important 0.02 line. The TICK closed the week at 207 which is the normal range for retail trading and it does not reflect any institutional bias whatsoever.
This market is all about the oil and energy. Oil is leading the S&P 500 between 1 to 3 weeks. If oil goes down, the S&P 500 goes down. If oil goes up, the S&P 500 goes up. The reason for this temporary relationship is that the smart money is using oil as a barometer for global economic growth. Here's the logic. If oil is going down, that means that demand for oil is going down. If demand for oil is going down, that means that economic activity is going down. Every trader right now needs to have oil on his watch list.
Gold is in a strong downtrend. Silver continues its strong downtrend.
Fundamental analysis reports that moved markets last week were Tuesday's Retail Sales and FOMC Meeting Minutes, Thursday's PPI and Industrial Production, and Friday's CPI report.
The Retail Sales report in November advanced but not as strongly as expected. However, October and September were revised up and weakness in November was largely in components that had surged earlier. Overall retail sales in November grew 0.2 percent, following a 0.6 percent boost in October (originally up 0.5 percent) and a 1.3 percent spike in September (previously up 1.1 percent). November's number fell short of market expectations for a 0.5 percent increase.
The FOMC Meeting Minutes showed the Fed retained the current policy rate range of 0.0 to 0.25 percent and kept language saying the policy rate will remain exceptionally low likely through mid-2013. However, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans dissented leaving the vote 9 to 1. The statement said Evans "supported additional policy accommodation at this time." The Fed noted that, "the economy has been expanding moderately, notwithstanding some apparent slowing in global growth." However, the Fed justified its continued very loose policy by stating that the unemployment rate remains elevated despite some improvement in labor markets. Economic growth is too slow, downside risks remain from Europe, and inflation is expected to settle at acceptable rates.
The PPI report showed that producer price inflation picked up in November but it was due to food, not energy. Producer prices rebounded 0.3 percent after falling 0.3 percent in October. Analysts had expected a 0.2 percent rise in November.
The Industrial Production report showed that industrial production weakened in November-largely on a decline in auto assemblies although manufacturing was down in general. Industrial production declined 0.2 percent after surging 0.7 percent in October. November's figure was significantly below consensus expectations for a 0.2 percent increase. By major components, manufacturing dropped 0.4 percent after gaining 0.5 percent the prior month. For November, utilities output advanced 0.2 percent while mining edged up 0.1 percent. Manufacturing was pulled down largely by a 3.4 percent drop in output for motor vehicles and parts, following a 3.4 percent jump in October. Excluding autos, manufacturing still slipped 0.2 percent, following a 0.3 percent rise the prior month.
The CPI report shows that the Fed is getting its wish for easing inflation with lower energy costs coming into play. The consumer price index in November was unchanged after declining 0.1 percent in October. November's number posted below market expectations for a 0.1 percent rise. Excluding food and energy, the CPI increased 0.2 percent after a 0.1 percent advance in October. Analysts projected a 0.1 percent rise. By major components, energy fell 1.6 percent after declining 2.0 percent in October. Gasoline fell 2.4 percent, following a 3.1 percent drop in October. Food price inflation increased 0.1 percent after rising 0.1 percent the prior month.
Fundamental analysis reports with the greatest probability of moving markets next week are:
Tuesday, Dec 20, 2011 = Housing Starts
Thursday, Dec 22, 2011 = GDP
Friday, Dec 23, 2011 = Durable Goods Orders, Personal Income and Outlays
We are not in a trending market, but rather a news driven trading market. This means that trend based trading systems are not going to be as useful in this market.
The Dow has a sidelines rating. It's smack in the middle of its last swing move low of 11231, and swing move high of 12257. You should not be in this market until either the bulls or the bears establishes a dominant position over the other.
The Nasdaq has a downtrend rating. It is leading the other major indices lower.
The S&P 500 has a sidelines rating and looks a lot like the Dow.
The Russell 2000 has a sidelines rating. We are not getting any market leadership, either up or down, from small caps.
According to the trends of the major indices, you should be on the sidelines and the safety of cash right now.
Market internals are split as well which reinforces the sidelines ratings. The percent of stocks on the NYSE that are trading above their 50 day moving average is 43%: that's a bearish bias. The percent of stocks trading above their 200 day moving average is 29%: a bearish bias. The VIX has a very weak downtrend rating: this is a bullish signal for the markets. The Nasdaq Advance-Decline Volume has a bearish bias. The amount of stocks making new highs relative to those making new lows on the NYSE has a slight bullish bias with the new lows to the total ratio falling below the important 0.02 line. The TICK closed the week at 207 which is the normal range for retail trading and it does not reflect any institutional bias whatsoever.
This market is all about the oil and energy. Oil is leading the S&P 500 between 1 to 3 weeks. If oil goes down, the S&P 500 goes down. If oil goes up, the S&P 500 goes up. The reason for this temporary relationship is that the smart money is using oil as a barometer for global economic growth. Here's the logic. If oil is going down, that means that demand for oil is going down. If demand for oil is going down, that means that economic activity is going down. Every trader right now needs to have oil on his watch list.
Gold is in a strong downtrend. Silver continues its strong downtrend.
Fundamental analysis reports that moved markets last week were Tuesday's Retail Sales and FOMC Meeting Minutes, Thursday's PPI and Industrial Production, and Friday's CPI report.
The Retail Sales report in November advanced but not as strongly as expected. However, October and September were revised up and weakness in November was largely in components that had surged earlier. Overall retail sales in November grew 0.2 percent, following a 0.6 percent boost in October (originally up 0.5 percent) and a 1.3 percent spike in September (previously up 1.1 percent). November's number fell short of market expectations for a 0.5 percent increase.
The FOMC Meeting Minutes showed the Fed retained the current policy rate range of 0.0 to 0.25 percent and kept language saying the policy rate will remain exceptionally low likely through mid-2013. However, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans dissented leaving the vote 9 to 1. The statement said Evans "supported additional policy accommodation at this time." The Fed noted that, "the economy has been expanding moderately, notwithstanding some apparent slowing in global growth." However, the Fed justified its continued very loose policy by stating that the unemployment rate remains elevated despite some improvement in labor markets. Economic growth is too slow, downside risks remain from Europe, and inflation is expected to settle at acceptable rates.
The PPI report showed that producer price inflation picked up in November but it was due to food, not energy. Producer prices rebounded 0.3 percent after falling 0.3 percent in October. Analysts had expected a 0.2 percent rise in November.
The Industrial Production report showed that industrial production weakened in November-largely on a decline in auto assemblies although manufacturing was down in general. Industrial production declined 0.2 percent after surging 0.7 percent in October. November's figure was significantly below consensus expectations for a 0.2 percent increase. By major components, manufacturing dropped 0.4 percent after gaining 0.5 percent the prior month. For November, utilities output advanced 0.2 percent while mining edged up 0.1 percent. Manufacturing was pulled down largely by a 3.4 percent drop in output for motor vehicles and parts, following a 3.4 percent jump in October. Excluding autos, manufacturing still slipped 0.2 percent, following a 0.3 percent rise the prior month.
The CPI report shows that the Fed is getting its wish for easing inflation with lower energy costs coming into play. The consumer price index in November was unchanged after declining 0.1 percent in October. November's number posted below market expectations for a 0.1 percent rise. Excluding food and energy, the CPI increased 0.2 percent after a 0.1 percent advance in October. Analysts projected a 0.1 percent rise. By major components, energy fell 1.6 percent after declining 2.0 percent in October. Gasoline fell 2.4 percent, following a 3.1 percent drop in October. Food price inflation increased 0.1 percent after rising 0.1 percent the prior month.
Fundamental analysis reports with the greatest probability of moving markets next week are:
Tuesday, Dec 20, 2011 = Housing Starts
Thursday, Dec 22, 2011 = GDP
Friday, Dec 23, 2011 = Durable Goods Orders, Personal Income and Outlays
We are not in a trending market, but rather a news driven trading market. This means that trend based trading systems are not going to be as useful in this market.
The Dow has a sidelines rating. It's smack in the middle of its last swing move low of 11231, and swing move high of 12257. You should not be in this market until either the bulls or the bears establishes a dominant position over the other.
The Nasdaq has a downtrend rating. It is leading the other major indices lower.
The S&P 500 has a sidelines rating and looks a lot like the Dow.
The Russell 2000 has a sidelines rating. We are not getting any market leadership, either up or down, from small caps.
According to the trends of the major indices, you should be on the sidelines and the safety of cash right now.
Market internals are split as well which reinforces the sidelines ratings. The percent of stocks on the NYSE that are trading above their 50 day moving average is 43%: that's a bearish bias. The percent of stocks trading above their 200 day moving average is 29%: a bearish bias. The VIX has a very weak downtrend rating: this is a bullish signal for the markets. The Nasdaq Advance-Decline Volume has a bearish bias. The amount of stocks making new highs relative to those making new lows on the NYSE has a slight bullish bias with the new lows to the total ratio falling below the important 0.02 line. The TICK closed the week at 207 which is the normal range for retail trading and it does not reflect any institutional bias whatsoever.
This market is all about the oil and energy. Oil is leading the S&P 500 between 1 to 3 weeks. If oil goes down, the S&P 500 goes down. If oil goes up, the S&P 500 goes up. The reason for this temporary relationship is that the smart money is using oil as a barometer for global economic growth. Here's the logic. If oil is going down, that means that demand for oil is going down. If demand for oil is going down, that means that economic activity is going down. Every trader right now needs to have oil on his watch list.
Gold is in a strong downtrend. Silver continues its strong downtrend.
Fundamental analysis reports that moved markets last week were Tuesday's Retail Sales and FOMC Meeting Minutes, Thursday's PPI and Industrial Production, and Friday's CPI report.
The Retail Sales report in November advanced but not as strongly as expected. However, October and September were revised up and weakness in November was largely in components that had surged earlier. Overall retail sales in November grew 0.2 percent, following a 0.6 percent boost in October (originally up 0.5 percent) and a 1.3 percent spike in September (previously up 1.1 percent). November's number fell short of market expectations for a 0.5 percent increase.
The FOMC Meeting Minutes showed the Fed retained the current policy rate range of 0.0 to 0.25 percent and kept language saying the policy rate will remain exceptionally low likely through mid-2013. However, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans dissented leaving the vote 9 to 1. The statement said Evans "supported additional policy accommodation at this time." The Fed noted that, "the economy has been expanding moderately, notwithstanding some apparent slowing in global growth." However, the Fed justified its continued very loose policy by stating that the unemployment rate remains elevated despite some improvement in labor markets. Economic growth is too slow, downside risks remain from Europe, and inflation is expected to settle at acceptable rates.
The PPI report showed that producer price inflation picked up in November but it was due to food, not energy. Producer prices rebounded 0.3 percent after falling 0.3 percent in October. Analysts had expected a 0.2 percent rise in November.
The Industrial Production report showed that industrial production weakened in November-largely on a decline in auto assemblies although manufacturing was down in general. Industrial production declined 0.2 percent after surging 0.7 percent in October. November's figure was significantly below consensus expectations for a 0.2 percent increase. By major components, manufacturing dropped 0.4 percent after gaining 0.5 percent the prior month. For November, utilities output advanced 0.2 percent while mining edged up 0.1 percent. Manufacturing was pulled down largely by a 3.4 percent drop in output for motor vehicles and parts, following a 3.4 percent jump in October. Excluding autos, manufacturing still slipped 0.2 percent, following a 0.3 percent rise the prior month.
The CPI report shows that the Fed is getting its wish for easing inflation with lower energy costs coming into play. The consumer price index in November was unchanged after declining 0.1 percent in October. November's number posted below market expectations for a 0.1 percent rise. Excluding food and energy, the CPI increased 0.2 percent after a 0.1 percent advance in October. Analysts projected a 0.1 percent rise. By major components, energy fell 1.6 percent after declining 2.0 percent in October. Gasoline fell 2.4 percent, following a 3.1 percent drop in October. Food price inflation increased 0.1 percent after rising 0.1 percent the prior month.
Fundamental analysis reports with the greatest probability of moving markets next week are:
Tuesday, Dec 20, 2011 = Housing Starts
Thursday, Dec 22, 2011 = GDP
Friday, Dec 23, 2011 = Durable Goods Orders, Personal Income and Outlays
The Dow has a downtrend rating. The Nasdaq has a strong downtrend rating and it is leading the other major indices lower. The S&P 500 has a downtrend rating. The Russell 2000 has a downtrend rating.
So according to the major indices, the Bears have the advantage over the Bulls going into trading the second half of this week.
Market internals also support the Bears on top thesis for the second half of trading this week. The percent of stocks on the NYSE that are trading above the 50 day moving average has fallen to 36% which is Bearish. The percent of stocks trading above their 200 day moving average has fallen to 25%, again, a Bearish bias.
Looking at the Nasdaq Advance Decline volume, the 0 line has been broke giving the Bears the advantage over the Bulls.
Even the TICK shows we are in a swing move down and while it doesn't support either the Bulls or the Bears, the week is not over yet and it's clearly falling.
Gold is in a strong downtrend. I hope you followed my advice to sell and take profits back at 1700 when the 50 day moving average was broke. The key support level to keep your eyes on is the 61.8% retracement level at 1550.
The U.S. dollar is in a strong uptrend. The dollar has just done a breakout above 80 resistance but it's prudent to demand at least a couple of days confirmation of the break.
In the video below, I go more into depth about the advantage Bears have over the Bulls and why I'm playing this swing move down in TVIX.
The Dow has a downtrend rating. The Nasdaq has a strong downtrend rating and it is leading the other major indices lower. The S&P 500 has a downtrend rating. The Russell 2000 has a downtrend rating.
So according to the major indices, the Bears have the advantage over the Bulls going into trading the second half of this week.
Market internals also support the Bears on top thesis for the second half of trading this week. The percent of stocks on the NYSE that are trading above the 50 day moving average has fallen to 36% which is Bearish. The percent of stocks trading above their 200 day moving average has fallen to 25%, again, a Bearish bias.
Looking at the Nasdaq Advance Decline volume, the 0 line has been broke giving the Bears the advantage over the Bulls.
Even the TICK shows we are in a swing move down and while it doesn't support either the Bulls or the Bears, the week is not over yet and it's clearly falling.
Gold is in a strong downtrend. I hope you followed my advice to sell and take profits back at 1700 when the 50 day moving average was broke. The key support level to keep your eyes on is the 61.8% retracement level at 1550.
The U.S. dollar is in a strong uptrend. The dollar has just done a breakout above 80 resistance but it's prudent to demand at least a couple of days confirmation of the break.
In the video below, I go more into depth about the advantage Bears have over the Bulls and why I'm playing this swing move down in TVIX.
The Dow has a downtrend rating. The Nasdaq has a strong downtrend rating and it is leading the other major indices lower. The S&P 500 has a downtrend rating. The Russell 2000 has a downtrend rating.
So according to the major indices, the Bears have the advantage over the Bulls going into trading the second half of this week.
Market internals also support the Bears on top thesis for the second half of trading this week. The percent of stocks on the NYSE that are trading above the 50 day moving average has fallen to 36% which is Bearish. The percent of stocks trading above their 200 day moving average has fallen to 25%, again, a Bearish bias.
Looking at the Nasdaq Advance Decline volume, the 0 line has been broke giving the Bears the advantage over the Bulls.
Even the TICK shows we are in a swing move down and while it doesn't support either the Bulls or the Bears, the week is not over yet and it's clearly falling.
Gold is in a strong downtrend. I hope you followed my advice to sell and take profits back at 1700 when the 50 day moving average was broke. The key support level to keep your eyes on is the 61.8% retracement level at 1550.
The U.S. dollar is in a strong uptrend. The dollar has just done a breakout above 80 resistance but it's prudent to demand at least a couple of days confirmation of the break.
In the video below, I go more into depth about the advantage Bears have over the Bulls and why I'm playing this swing move down in TVIX.
The Dow, Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Russell 2000, all have sidelines ratings.
Neither the bulls nor the bears have a dominant position over the other and neither control the trend. Therefore, you should be on the sidelines and the safety of cash.
All the major indices have not yet cleared their October and November highs but they are right there testing it. You want to take a wait and see attitude. Until we have a breakout if these previous highs, it's better to stay on the sidelines and the safety of cash.
Now let's look under the hood and see what the market internal indicators show us and if they confirm the trends of the major indices.
On the NYSE, 70% of stocks are trading above their 50 day moving average. That's bullish. On the NYSE, 34% of stocks are trading above their 200 day moving average. That's bearish.
There is a bullish bias on the Nasdaq Advance Decline Volume chart.
The TICK is within the range of normal retail trading and so it doesn't give us either a bullish or bearish bias coming from institutional traders.
The VIX is within a very weak downtrend and it just broke the 200 day moving average. This gives the bulls a very weak advantage over the bears as put buying is down trending for now.
So the market internal indicators give a very slight advantage to the bulls. The advantage is not strong enough though for us to place our bets on that group but it's an advantage nevertheless.
Further, according to seasonality patterns, the bulls usually have an advantage over the bears this time of year going into the Santa Claus rally.
Gold has a weak downtrend rating. Gold traders are very frustrated right now because September thru December are suppose to be the best months of the year for gold. In September, gold hit 1923.70, today, gold trades at 1714. Now back in September, you had Peter Schiff, Doug Casey, Pete Degraff, and the Aden Sisters all saying that 2000 gold by year end was guaranteed and probably 2350 to 2500 would be a more likely target. How stupid was that prediction? This is why you don't try and predict where a market is going to be at in the future, that's a fools game. You don't have to do that to make money stock trading. All you need to do is to establish the trend and then trade the trend.
Silver continues to have a downtrend rating.
The U.S. dollar has an uptrend rating. This has pushed gold down. Now you understand first hand why gold bugs like the National Inflation Association and Peter Schiff have to lie and bash the U.S. dollar. A strong U.S. dollar is bad for their open long gold positions. Remember when Peter Schiff said the U.S. dollar was going to 50 in a best case scenario and in a worst case scenario 0? He said this back in 2009 and that it would happen by the end of the year. Over two years later, the U.S. dollar never even got down to 67, and today it's at 78, and is in an uptrend. What an idiot prediction that turned out to be.
Folks, never let yourself be manipulated again. Just add the U.S. dollar chart to your watch list. It's that simple. Don't let some gold hustler lie to you and tell you the dollar is going to go worthless and yet in reality, the U.S. dollar is in an uptrend! How stupid are you if you do that. Just look at the chart of the U.S. dollar yourself.
Fundamental analysis reports that moved markets last week were Friday's International Trade report.
The U.S. trade deficit shrank in October as a drop in imports outpaced a dip in exports. The trade gap narrowed to $43.5 billion from $44.2 billion in September (originally $43.1 billion). The October deficit was in line with the consensus forecast for $43.4 billion. Exports slipped 0.8 percent after jumping 1.4 percent in September. Imports declined 1.0 percent in October, following a 0.6 percent gain the month before.
Fundamental analysis reports with the greatest probability of moving markets next week are:
Tuesday - Dec 13, 2011 = Retail Sales, FOMC Meeting Announcement
Thursday - Dec 15, 2011 = Producer Price Index, Industrial Production
Friday - Dec 16, 2011 = Consumer Price Index
The Dow, Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Russell 2000, all have sidelines ratings.
Neither the bulls nor the bears have a dominant position over the other and neither control the trend. Therefore, you should be on the sidelines and the safety of cash.
All the major indices have not yet cleared their October and November highs but they are right there testing it. You want to take a wait and see attitude. Until we have a breakout if these previous highs, it's better to stay on the sidelines and the safety of cash.
Now let's look under the hood and see what the market internal indicators show us and if they confirm the trends of the major indices.
On the NYSE, 70% of stocks are trading above their 50 day moving average. That's bullish. On the NYSE, 34% of stocks are trading above their 200 day moving average. That's bearish.
There is a bullish bias on the Nasdaq Advance Decline Volume chart.
The TICK is within the range of normal retail trading and so it doesn't give us either a bullish or bearish bias coming from institutional traders.
The VIX is within a very weak downtrend and it just broke the 200 day moving average. This gives the bulls a very weak advantage over the bears as put buying is down trending for now.
So the market internal indicators give a very slight advantage to the bulls. The advantage is not strong enough though for us to place our bets on that group but it's an advantage nevertheless.
Further, according to seasonality patterns, the bulls usually have an advantage over the bears this time of year going into the Santa Claus rally.
Gold has a weak downtrend rating. Gold traders are very frustrated right now because September thru December are suppose to be the best months of the year for gold. In September, gold hit 1923.70, today, gold trades at 1714. Now back in September, you had Peter Schiff, Doug Casey, Pete Degraff, and the Aden Sisters all saying that 2000 gold by year end was guaranteed and probably 2350 to 2500 would be a more likely target. How stupid was that prediction? This is why you don't try and predict where a market is going to be at in the future, that's a fools game. You don't have to do that to make money stock trading. All you need to do is to establish the trend and then trade the trend.
Silver continues to have a downtrend rating.
The U.S. dollar has an uptrend rating. This has pushed gold down. Now you understand first hand why gold bugs like the National Inflation Association and Peter Schiff have to lie and bash the U.S. dollar. A strong U.S. dollar is bad for their open long gold positions. Remember when Peter Schiff said the U.S. dollar was going to 50 in a best case scenario and in a worst case scenario 0? He said this back in 2009 and that it would happen by the end of the year. Over two years later, the U.S. dollar never even got down to 67, and today it's at 78, and is in an uptrend. What an idiot prediction that turned out to be.
Folks, never let yourself be manipulated again. Just add the U.S. dollar chart to your watch list. It's that simple. Don't let some gold hustler lie to you and tell you the dollar is going to go worthless and yet in reality, the U.S. dollar is in an uptrend! How stupid are you if you do that. Just look at the chart of the U.S. dollar yourself.
Fundamental analysis reports that moved markets last week were Friday's International Trade report.
The U.S. trade deficit shrank in October as a drop in imports outpaced a dip in exports. The trade gap narrowed to $43.5 billion from $44.2 billion in September (originally $43.1 billion). The October deficit was in line with the consensus forecast for $43.4 billion. Exports slipped 0.8 percent after jumping 1.4 percent in September. Imports declined 1.0 percent in October, following a 0.6 percent gain the month before.
Fundamental analysis reports with the greatest probability of moving markets next week are:
Tuesday - Dec 13, 2011 = Retail Sales, FOMC Meeting Announcement
Thursday - Dec 15, 2011 = Producer Price Index, Industrial Production
Friday - Dec 16, 2011 = Consumer Price Index
The Dow, Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Russell 2000, all have sidelines ratings.
Neither the bulls nor the bears have a dominant position over the other and neither control the trend. Therefore, you should be on the sidelines and the safety of cash.
All the major indices have not yet cleared their October and November highs but they are right there testing it. You want to take a wait and see attitude. Until we have a breakout if these previous highs, it's better to stay on the sidelines and the safety of cash.
Now let's look under the hood and see what the market internal indicators show us and if they confirm the trends of the major indices.
On the NYSE, 70% of stocks are trading above their 50 day moving average. That's bullish. On the NYSE, 34% of stocks are trading above their 200 day moving average. That's bearish.
There is a bullish bias on the Nasdaq Advance Decline Volume chart.
The TICK is within the range of normal retail trading and so it doesn't give us either a bullish or bearish bias coming from institutional traders.
The VIX is within a very weak downtrend and it just broke the 200 day moving average. This gives the bulls a very weak advantage over the bears as put buying is down trending for now.
So the market internal indicators give a very slight advantage to the bulls. The advantage is not strong enough though for us to place our bets on that group but it's an advantage nevertheless.
Further, according to seasonality patterns, the bulls usually have an advantage over the bears this time of year going into the Santa Claus rally.
Gold has a weak downtrend rating. Gold traders are very frustrated right now because September thru December are suppose to be the best months of the year for gold. In September, gold hit 1923.70, today, gold trades at 1714. Now back in September, you had Peter Schiff, Doug Casey, Pete Degraff, and the Aden Sisters all saying that 2000 gold by year end was guaranteed and probably 2350 to 2500 would be a more likely target. How stupid was that prediction? This is why you don't try and predict where a market is going to be at in the future, that's a fools game. You don't have to do that to make money stock trading. All you need to do is to establish the trend and then trade the trend.
Silver continues to have a downtrend rating.
The U.S. dollar has an uptrend rating. This has pushed gold down. Now you understand first hand why gold bugs like the National Inflation Association and Peter Schiff have to lie and bash the U.S. dollar. A strong U.S. dollar is bad for their open long gold positions. Remember when Peter Schiff said the U.S. dollar was going to 50 in a best case scenario and in a worst case scenario 0? He said this back in 2009 and that it would happen by the end of the year. Over two years later, the U.S. dollar never even got down to 67, and today it's at 78, and is in an uptrend. What an idiot prediction that turned out to be.
Folks, never let yourself be manipulated again. Just add the U.S. dollar chart to your watch list. It's that simple. Don't let some gold hustler lie to you and tell you the dollar is going to go worthless and yet in reality, the U.S. dollar is in an uptrend! How stupid are you if you do that. Just look at the chart of the U.S. dollar yourself.
Fundamental analysis reports that moved markets last week were Friday's International Trade report.
The U.S. trade deficit shrank in October as a drop in imports outpaced a dip in exports. The trade gap narrowed to $43.5 billion from $44.2 billion in September (originally $43.1 billion). The October deficit was in line with the consensus forecast for $43.4 billion. Exports slipped 0.8 percent after jumping 1.4 percent in September. Imports declined 1.0 percent in October, following a 0.6 percent gain the month before.
Fundamental analysis reports with the greatest probability of moving markets next week are:
Tuesday - Dec 13, 2011 = Retail Sales, FOMC Meeting Announcement
Thursday - Dec 15, 2011 = Producer Price Index, Industrial Production
Friday - Dec 16, 2011 = Consumer Price Index
Stocks Above I Currently Hold In My Own Trading Account: Long LIFE
Guerilla Trader Quote
“In October 2000, the Institutions were publishing positive fundamental data and analysis about Cisco's future. Just a few months later, Cisco announced it would lay off 17 percent of its workforce. Cisco stock fell from $45 to $11. Industry analysts, newsletter writers, politicians, and others often have connections to the stocks they recommend. Don’t be fooled by a clever mixture of the facts they wish you to hear and the opinions they want you to believe. Make your own decisions!”
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The Dow continues to have a strong uptrend rating. The big news is that the S&P 500 has now joined the Dow. Both the Dow and the S&P 500 have a strong uptrend rating. The Nasdaq has an uptrend rating. Even bigger news is that the Russell 2000 now has an uptrend rating.
The first five trading days in January have closed up! Chalk one up for the Bulls. Here are the actual gains for the first five trading days in January:
The Dow continues to be in a strong uptrend. This signals large, blue chip, defensive stocks are dominant right now. The Russell 2000 has a sidelines rating. We don't have small caps leading mid cap and large cap stocks higher. This is a huge warning signal about the power of the current swing move up. Now, if the major indices go into a strong uptrend rating, the Russell 2000 will establish itself in its rightful leadership role as it leads stocks higher. This is a great buy signal to use folks. Stay on the sidelines and the safety of cash until you see the Russell 2000 going into a strong uptrend and lead the rest of the major indices higher. The S&P 500 has an uptrend rating and so does the Nasdaq.
The Dow is the only major index in an uptrend. The Dow leadership speaks to the defensive nature of most traders right now.
We are at the last trading week in December. The question on every trader's mind is will we have the traditional Santa Claus Rally that begins in the last trading week in December?
We are not in a trending market, but rather a news driven trading market. This means that trend based trading systems are not going to be as useful in this market.
The Dow has a downtrend rating. The Nasdaq has a strong downtrend rating and it is leading the other major indices lower. The S&P 500 has a downtrend rating. The Russell 2000 has a downtrend rating.
The Dow, Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Russell 2000, all have sidelines ratings.
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