The Dow is in a strong uptrend. This reveals a defensive component to this current move up. The Russell 2000, which is a great way to measure the aggressiveness of Bulls, has a sidelines rating which supports the view that this is a defensive swing move up. What we'd like to see is the Russell 2000 having a strong uptrend and leading the other major indices higher. We don't have that yet so you need to be careful with jumping in with both feet on the long side right now. It's going to continue to be difficult to make money on the long side with the Dow leading this market higher.
All eyes are going to be on Monday, which ends the First Five January Barometer. Unless Monday is some kind of huge sell off, it looks like the markets are going to be closing 2012 up. After next Monday, we will track the entire month of January to see if that closes up as well. If we get a close up on both, we will have an 80% chance of markets closing up for the entire year. Cool stuff folks.
The Nasdaq has a very weak uptrend rating. It is the major index that has improved the most over the last week. This gives the Bulls a slight advantage over Bears but until we break the October highs and go into a strong uptrend, the advantage that the Bulls have over the Bears is not enough that we can place our money on that group yet.
The S&P 500 has a very weak uptrend rating and as I mentioned above, the Russell 2000 has a sidelines rating.
So in summary, the Dow has a strong uptrend, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 both have very weak uptrends, and the Russell 2000 has a sidelines rating. Make no mistake, the Bulls have strengthened their advantage over the Bears, over the last four trading days, but it's not enough that we can get excited about and jump in with both feet on the long side. This means that it's going to be tough making money long anything right now. My opinion is that you should still be on the sidelines and in the safety of cash. When should you go long? Wait for the Russell 2000 to go into a strong uptrend and lead the other major indices higher. Wait for all the major indices to go into strong uptrend ratings.
Here's the biggest secret that nobody is talking about right now so you'll get it from me first. The VIX with both short term and mid term futures are in downtrends! I contributed some of the downward movement in the VIX to Christmas and New Years but after both, the downtrend has continued! This is incredibly bullish folks. It means that PUT buying and hedging continue to drop! Even better, the VIX looks like it will have a Burial Cross next week! The markets are in a sideways trading range and yet the VIX is in a downtrend. This can't continue much longer folks. Either the VIX will spike up and the market will roll over, or the market will go into a major strong uptrend and snap in line with the VIX. Something has to give. This is a temporary divergence between the major indices and the VIX.
Gold is upgraded from a downtrend to a sidelines rating. Gold sits right on top of its 200 day moving average. This is critical folks because only two things can happen off this important psychological level of the 200 day moving average. Either gold will break above the 200 day moving average which will be great for gold bulls, or gold will roll over and be rejected off the 200 day moving average twice and we could see a huge panic sell off. For now, we just don't know which way the market is going to move so we give it a sidelines rating and stay back in the safety of cash. There will be plenty of time to buy gold when/if it goes into a strong uptrend rating.
The U.S. dollar continues to have a strong uptrend rating which is putting downward pressure on gold. I was talking with a gold bug who said that gold has de-coupled from the U.S. dollar so it no longer matters what the U.S. dollar does. It's funny how gold bugs see what they want to see. Gold and the U.S. dollar have NOT de-coupled from each other yet. Only two days last week did both the U.S. dollar and gold rise at the same time. Two days does not a market make. In the video below, I'll show you a chart of the U.S. dollar and Gold so that you can see for yourself the two have not de-coupled.
The percentage of stocks on the NYSE which are trading above the 50 day moving average has climbed to 67%. That's bullish. The percent of stocks trading above the 200 day moving average is at 42%. That's an improvement from last week, but it's bearish. But keep in mind, that 42% is above the 200 day moving average for the first time in over 6 months.
The Nasdaq Advance Decline volume shows that volume exploded last week and has easily put the volume in Bulls territory.
The TICK closed in the range of normal retail trading. But what the TICK does reveal is that we don't have institutional traders buying up stocks across entire sectors like we did at the start of the 4th quarter in October. This seems to suggest that institutional traders are not coming in with large amounts of new money to reposition and invest for 2012. It supports the thesis that they are taking a defensive approach to this market by sitting mostly back in cash and watching the bond markets for clues.
Both large cap and small cap gold mining stocks continue to have downtrend ratings. This is not the time to be in gold mining stocks folks.
The Elder System applied to the S&P 500 shows the daily chart having an indecision signal, while the weekly chart has a buy signal. This split on the Elder System reinforces the thesis for trading next week that while Bulls have a small advantage over Bears, it's not enough for us to place our bets on the long side yet.
Fundamental analysis reports that moved markets last week were: Tuesday's ISM Mfg Index, and Friday's Employment Situation.
The ISM Mfg Index report showed acceleration in the manufacturing sector as the latest good news on the economy. New orders in the ISM's manufacturing report for December rose nearly one point to 57.6 to signal acceleration from what was already a solid rate of growth in November. Other readings on orders include a slowing draw for backlog orders and acceleration for new export orders, the latter perhaps a surprise given trouble in Europe and dislocations tied to Thailand. Strength in orders points ahead to strength in general business activity including employment which is already gathering steam, at 55.1 for a nearly 3-1/2 point gain.
The Employment report showed significant improvement overall. The unemployment rate dipped to 8.5 percent. Payroll jobs in December jumped a relatively healthy 200,000 after rising a revised 100,000 in November (originally 120,000) and increased a revised 112,000 in October (previously 100,000). The median market forecast called for a 150,000 increase in overall payrolls. Revisions for October and November were down net 8,000.
Fundamental analysis reports that have the greatest probability of moving markets next week are:
Thu - Jan 12, 2012 = Retail Sales
Fri - Jan 13, 2012 = International Trade
The Dow is in a strong uptrend. This reveals a defensive component to this current move up. The Russell 2000, which is a great way to measure the aggressiveness of Bulls, has a sidelines rating which supports the view that this is a defensive swing move up. What we'd like to see is the Russell 2000 having a strong uptrend and leading the other major indices higher. We don't have that yet so you need to be careful with jumping in with both feet on the long side right now. It's going to continue to be difficult to make money on the long side with the Dow leading this market higher.
All eyes are going to be on Monday, which ends the First Five January Barometer. Unless Monday is some kind of huge sell off, it looks like the markets are going to be closing 2012 up. After next Monday, we will track the entire month of January to see if that closes up as well. If we get a close up on both, we will have an 80% chance of markets closing up for the entire year. Cool stuff folks.
The Nasdaq has a very weak uptrend rating. It is the major index that has improved the most over the last week. This gives the Bulls a slight advantage over Bears but until we break the October highs and go into a strong uptrend, the advantage that the Bulls have over the Bears is not enough that we can place our money on that group yet.
The S&P 500 has a very weak uptrend rating and as I mentioned above, the Russell 2000 has a sidelines rating.
So in summary, the Dow has a strong uptrend, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 both have very weak uptrends, and the Russell 2000 has a sidelines rating. Make no mistake, the Bulls have strengthened their advantage over the Bears, over the last four trading days, but it's not enough that we can get excited about and jump in with both feet on the long side. This means that it's going to be tough making money long anything right now. My opinion is that you should still be on the sidelines and in the safety of cash. When should you go long? Wait for the Russell 2000 to go into a strong uptrend and lead the other major indices higher. Wait for all the major indices to go into strong uptrend ratings.
Here's the biggest secret that nobody is talking about right now so you'll get it from me first. The VIX with both short term and mid term futures are in downtrends! I contributed some of the downward movement in the VIX to Christmas and New Years but after both, the downtrend has continued! This is incredibly bullish folks. It means that PUT buying and hedging continue to drop! Even better, the VIX looks like it will have a Burial Cross next week! The markets are in a sideways trading range and yet the VIX is in a downtrend. This can't continue much longer folks. Either the VIX will spike up and the market will roll over, or the market will go into a major strong uptrend and snap in line with the VIX. Something has to give. This is a temporary divergence between the major indices and the VIX.
Gold is upgraded from a downtrend to a sidelines rating. Gold sits right on top of its 200 day moving average. This is critical folks because only two things can happen off this important psychological level of the 200 day moving average. Either gold will break above the 200 day moving average which will be great for gold bulls, or gold will roll over and be rejected off the 200 day moving average twice and we could see a huge panic sell off. For now, we just don't know which way the market is going to move so we give it a sidelines rating and stay back in the safety of cash. There will be plenty of time to buy gold when/if it goes into a strong uptrend rating.
The U.S. dollar continues to have a strong uptrend rating which is putting downward pressure on gold. I was talking with a gold bug who said that gold has de-coupled from the U.S. dollar so it no longer matters what the U.S. dollar does. It's funny how gold bugs see what they want to see. Gold and the U.S. dollar have NOT de-coupled from each other yet. Only two days last week did both the U.S. dollar and gold rise at the same time. Two days does not a market make. In the video below, I'll show you a chart of the U.S. dollar and Gold so that you can see for yourself the two have not de-coupled.
The percentage of stocks on the NYSE which are trading above the 50 day moving average has climbed to 67%. That's bullish. The percent of stocks trading above the 200 day moving average is at 42%. That's an improvement from last week, but it's bearish. But keep in mind, that 42% is above the 200 day moving average for the first time in over 6 months.
The Nasdaq Advance Decline volume shows that volume exploded last week and has easily put the volume in Bulls territory.
The TICK closed in the range of normal retail trading. But what the TICK does reveal is that we don't have institutional traders buying up stocks across entire sectors like we did at the start of the 4th quarter in October. This seems to suggest that institutional traders are not coming in with large amounts of new money to reposition and invest for 2012. It supports the thesis that they are taking a defensive approach to this market by sitting mostly back in cash and watching the bond markets for clues.
Both large cap and small cap gold mining stocks continue to have downtrend ratings. This is not the time to be in gold mining stocks folks.
The Elder System applied to the S&P 500 shows the daily chart having an indecision signal, while the weekly chart has a buy signal. This split on the Elder System reinforces the thesis for trading next week that while Bulls have a small advantage over Bears, it's not enough for us to place our bets on the long side yet.
Fundamental analysis reports that moved markets last week were: Tuesday's ISM Mfg Index, and Friday's Employment Situation.
The ISM Mfg Index report showed acceleration in the manufacturing sector as the latest good news on the economy. New orders in the ISM's manufacturing report for December rose nearly one point to 57.6 to signal acceleration from what was already a solid rate of growth in November. Other readings on orders include a slowing draw for backlog orders and acceleration for new export orders, the latter perhaps a surprise given trouble in Europe and dislocations tied to Thailand. Strength in orders points ahead to strength in general business activity including employment which is already gathering steam, at 55.1 for a nearly 3-1/2 point gain.
The Employment report showed significant improvement overall. The unemployment rate dipped to 8.5 percent. Payroll jobs in December jumped a relatively healthy 200,000 after rising a revised 100,000 in November (originally 120,000) and increased a revised 112,000 in October (previously 100,000). The median market forecast called for a 150,000 increase in overall payrolls. Revisions for October and November were down net 8,000.
Fundamental analysis reports that have the greatest probability of moving markets next week are:
Thu - Jan 12, 2012 = Retail Sales
Fri - Jan 13, 2012 = International Trade
The Dow is in a strong uptrend. This reveals a defensive component to this current move up. The Russell 2000, which is a great way to measure the aggressiveness of Bulls, has a sidelines rating which supports the view that this is a defensive swing move up. What we'd like to see is the Russell 2000 having a strong uptrend and leading the other major indices higher. We don't have that yet so you need to be careful with jumping in with both feet on the long side right now. It's going to continue to be difficult to make money on the long side with the Dow leading this market higher.
All eyes are going to be on Monday, which ends the First Five January Barometer. Unless Monday is some kind of huge sell off, it looks like the markets are going to be closing 2012 up. After next Monday, we will track the entire month of January to see if that closes up as well. If we get a close up on both, we will have an 80% chance of markets closing up for the entire year. Cool stuff folks.
The Nasdaq has a very weak uptrend rating. It is the major index that has improved the most over the last week. This gives the Bulls a slight advantage over Bears but until we break the October highs and go into a strong uptrend, the advantage that the Bulls have over the Bears is not enough that we can place our money on that group yet.
The S&P 500 has a very weak uptrend rating and as I mentioned above, the Russell 2000 has a sidelines rating.
So in summary, the Dow has a strong uptrend, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 both have very weak uptrends, and the Russell 2000 has a sidelines rating. Make no mistake, the Bulls have strengthened their advantage over the Bears, over the last four trading days, but it's not enough that we can get excited about and jump in with both feet on the long side. This means that it's going to be tough making money long anything right now. My opinion is that you should still be on the sidelines and in the safety of cash. When should you go long? Wait for the Russell 2000 to go into a strong uptrend and lead the other major indices higher. Wait for all the major indices to go into strong uptrend ratings.
Here's the biggest secret that nobody is talking about right now so you'll get it from me first. The VIX with both short term and mid term futures are in downtrends! I contributed some of the downward movement in the VIX to Christmas and New Years but after both, the downtrend has continued! This is incredibly bullish folks. It means that PUT buying and hedging continue to drop! Even better, the VIX looks like it will have a Burial Cross next week! The markets are in a sideways trading range and yet the VIX is in a downtrend. This can't continue much longer folks. Either the VIX will spike up and the market will roll over, or the market will go into a major strong uptrend and snap in line with the VIX. Something has to give. This is a temporary divergence between the major indices and the VIX.
Gold is upgraded from a downtrend to a sidelines rating. Gold sits right on top of its 200 day moving average. This is critical folks because only two things can happen off this important psychological level of the 200 day moving average. Either gold will break above the 200 day moving average which will be great for gold bulls, or gold will roll over and be rejected off the 200 day moving average twice and we could see a huge panic sell off. For now, we just don't know which way the market is going to move so we give it a sidelines rating and stay back in the safety of cash. There will be plenty of time to buy gold when/if it goes into a strong uptrend rating.
The U.S. dollar continues to have a strong uptrend rating which is putting downward pressure on gold. I was talking with a gold bug who said that gold has de-coupled from the U.S. dollar so it no longer matters what the U.S. dollar does. It's funny how gold bugs see what they want to see. Gold and the U.S. dollar have NOT de-coupled from each other yet. Only two days last week did both the U.S. dollar and gold rise at the same time. Two days does not a market make. In the video below, I'll show you a chart of the U.S. dollar and Gold so that you can see for yourself the two have not de-coupled.
The percentage of stocks on the NYSE which are trading above the 50 day moving average has climbed to 67%. That's bullish. The percent of stocks trading above the 200 day moving average is at 42%. That's an improvement from last week, but it's bearish. But keep in mind, that 42% is above the 200 day moving average for the first time in over 6 months.
The Nasdaq Advance Decline volume shows that volume exploded last week and has easily put the volume in Bulls territory.
The TICK closed in the range of normal retail trading. But what the TICK does reveal is that we don't have institutional traders buying up stocks across entire sectors like we did at the start of the 4th quarter in October. This seems to suggest that institutional traders are not coming in with large amounts of new money to reposition and invest for 2012. It supports the thesis that they are taking a defensive approach to this market by sitting mostly back in cash and watching the bond markets for clues.
Both large cap and small cap gold mining stocks continue to have downtrend ratings. This is not the time to be in gold mining stocks folks.
The Elder System applied to the S&P 500 shows the daily chart having an indecision signal, while the weekly chart has a buy signal. This split on the Elder System reinforces the thesis for trading next week that while Bulls have a small advantage over Bears, it's not enough for us to place our bets on the long side yet.
Fundamental analysis reports that moved markets last week were: Tuesday's ISM Mfg Index, and Friday's Employment Situation.
The ISM Mfg Index report showed acceleration in the manufacturing sector as the latest good news on the economy. New orders in the ISM's manufacturing report for December rose nearly one point to 57.6 to signal acceleration from what was already a solid rate of growth in November. Other readings on orders include a slowing draw for backlog orders and acceleration for new export orders, the latter perhaps a surprise given trouble in Europe and dislocations tied to Thailand. Strength in orders points ahead to strength in general business activity including employment which is already gathering steam, at 55.1 for a nearly 3-1/2 point gain.
The Employment report showed significant improvement overall. The unemployment rate dipped to 8.5 percent. Payroll jobs in December jumped a relatively healthy 200,000 after rising a revised 100,000 in November (originally 120,000) and increased a revised 112,000 in October (previously 100,000). The median market forecast called for a 150,000 increase in overall payrolls. Revisions for October and November were down net 8,000.
Fundamental analysis reports that have the greatest probability of moving markets next week are:
Thu - Jan 12, 2012 = Retail Sales
Fri - Jan 13, 2012 = International Trade
Talk about more of the same! We closed today almost at the exact same level we did Friday of last week.
The Dow has a strong uptrend rating. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 all have sidelines ratings. The strong uptrend rating on the Dow is all about the defensive nature of this swing move up with utilities and healthcare being the strongest sectors.
The stock market will be closed for New Year's Day on January 2nd 2012. Next week is going to be a critical week for the markets folks. We are at the upper end of the sideways trading range. Either the markets will break through upper resistance and take a new leg up, or they will bounce down off resistance and the sideways trading range will continue.
You can't place your bet on the bull or bear camp with any degree of certainty right now. Therefore, it's better for you to preserve your capital and stay on the sidelines and in the safety of cash.
For the month of December, I ended the month down about -4%. Where I really blew it was two trades in TVIX that lost me about -20%. I'm mad at myself because I failed to appreciate just how big an impact the seasonal drop off in activity and volatility would have on TVIX. This is the first year I've traded TVIX in December. It has been a hard and painful lesson to learn that I won't soon forget. Next year I'll know not to trade TVIX in December.
We've got tax time coming soon and so make sure that when you report your trades to the IRS, that you also use that time to review your trades for the year and where you went wrong, and what you did right.
Happy New Year!
Fundamental analysis reports with the greatest probability of moving markets next week are:
Tue - Jan 03, 2012 = ISM Mfg Index
Fri - Jan 06, 2012 = Employment Situation
Talk about more of the same! We closed today almost at the exact same level we did Friday of last week.
The Dow has a strong uptrend rating. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 all have sidelines ratings. The strong uptrend rating on the Dow is all about the defensive nature of this swing move up with utilities and healthcare being the strongest sectors.
The stock market will be closed for New Year's Day on January 2nd 2012. Next week is going to be a critical week for the markets folks. We are at the upper end of the sideways trading range. Either the markets will break through upper resistance and take a new leg up, or they will bounce down off resistance and the sideways trading range will continue.
You can't place your bet on the bull or bear camp with any degree of certainty right now. Therefore, it's better for you to preserve your capital and stay on the sidelines and in the safety of cash.
For the month of December, I ended the month down about -4%. Where I really blew it was two trades in TVIX that lost me about -20%. I'm mad at myself because I failed to appreciate just how big an impact the seasonal drop off in activity and volatility would have on TVIX. This is the first year I've traded TVIX in December. It has been a hard and painful lesson to learn that I won't soon forget. Next year I'll know not to trade TVIX in December.
We've got tax time coming soon and so make sure that when you report your trades to the IRS, that you also use that time to review your trades for the year and where you went wrong, and what you did right.
Happy New Year!
Fundamental analysis reports with the greatest probability of moving markets next week are:
Tue - Jan 03, 2012 = ISM Mfg Index
Fri - Jan 06, 2012 = Employment Situation
Talk about more of the same! We closed today almost at the exact same level we did Friday of last week.
The Dow has a strong uptrend rating. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 all have sidelines ratings. The strong uptrend rating on the Dow is all about the defensive nature of this swing move up with utilities and healthcare being the strongest sectors.
The stock market will be closed for New Year's Day on January 2nd 2012. Next week is going to be a critical week for the markets folks. We are at the upper end of the sideways trading range. Either the markets will break through upper resistance and take a new leg up, or they will bounce down off resistance and the sideways trading range will continue.
You can't place your bet on the bull or bear camp with any degree of certainty right now. Therefore, it's better for you to preserve your capital and stay on the sidelines and in the safety of cash.
For the month of December, I ended the month down about -4%. Where I really blew it was two trades in TVIX that lost me about -20%. I'm mad at myself because I failed to appreciate just how big an impact the seasonal drop off in activity and volatility would have on TVIX. This is the first year I've traded TVIX in December. It has been a hard and painful lesson to learn that I won't soon forget. Next year I'll know not to trade TVIX in December.
We've got tax time coming soon and so make sure that when you report your trades to the IRS, that you also use that time to review your trades for the year and where you went wrong, and what you did right.
Happy New Year!
Fundamental analysis reports with the greatest probability of moving markets next week are:
Tue - Jan 03, 2012 = ISM Mfg Index
Fri - Jan 06, 2012 = Employment Situation
If you follow me on Twitter then you already know that I bought Fushi Copperweld, Inc. (FSIN) today in my own personal trading account.
This is not our typical play.
This is a take the company private at $9.50 per share or better play.
Fushi Copperweld (FSIN) announced today that its Chairman and fund holder Abax Global Capital, want to take the company private. They are offering to buy all the outstanding shares of common stock at $9.50 per share: a whopping 26% higher valuation that the closing price today of $7.55 per share.
Fushi Copperweld has formed a Special Committee to study the offer. And yes, they are very serious about the offer as evidenced by their bringing BofA Merrill Lynch on-board, who is serving as the financial advisor to the Special Committee, and Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher LLP, who is serving as legal counsel.
This is not our typical technical chart play. This is a fundamental analysis play that the Special Committee will accept the $9.50 per share offer or even force the offer up higher. This is a longer term profit thesis and I don't anticipate us being out of the trade in just a couple of days like most of our trades. However, anything is possible. If the stock spikes up too quickly, we'll have to sell and take profits.
Even if the offer doesn't go through, the P/E ratio is 12 meaning the present valuation on the stock is good.
I also like the high-demand products this company makes.
If you follow me on Twitter then you already know that I bought Fushi Copperweld, Inc. (FSIN) today in my own personal trading account.
This is not our typical play.
This is a take the company private at $9.50 per share or better play.
Fushi Copperweld (FSIN) announced today that its Chairman and fund holder Abax Global Capital, want to take the company private. They are offering to buy all the outstanding shares of common stock at $9.50 per share: a whopping 26% higher valuation that the closing price today of $7.55 per share.
Fushi Copperweld has formed a Special Committee to study the offer. And yes, they are very serious about the offer as evidenced by their bringing BofA Merrill Lynch on-board, who is serving as the financial advisor to the Special Committee, and Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher LLP, who is serving as legal counsel.
This is not our typical technical chart play. This is a fundamental analysis play that the Special Committee will accept the $9.50 per share offer or even force the offer up higher. This is a longer term profit thesis and I don't anticipate us being out of the trade in just a couple of days like most of our trades. However, anything is possible. If the stock spikes up too quickly, we'll have to sell and take profits.
Even if the offer doesn't go through, the P/E ratio is 12 meaning the present valuation on the stock is good.
I also like the high-demand products this company makes.
For a FREE DAILY EMAIL ALERT on the trend of Fushi Copperweld (FSIN) click here! Just leave NASDAQ_FSIN in for the symbol and enter your name and email address!For a FREE DAILY EMAIL ALERT on the trend of Fushi Copperweld (FSIN) click here! Just leave NASDAQ_FSIN in for the symbol and enter your name and email address!
If you follow me on Twitter then you already know that I bought Fushi Copperweld, Inc. (FSIN) today in my own personal trading account.
This is not our typical play.
This is a take the company private at $9.50 per share or better play.
Fushi Copperweld (FSIN) announced today that its Chairman and fund holder Abax Global Capital, want to take the company private. They are offering to buy all the outstanding shares of common stock at $9.50 per share: a whopping 26% higher valuation that the closing price today of $7.55 per share.
Fushi Copperweld has formed a Special Committee to study the offer. And yes, they are very serious about the offer as evidenced by their bringing BofA Merrill Lynch on-board, who is serving as the financial advisor to the Special Committee, and Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher LLP, who is serving as legal counsel.
This is not our typical technical chart play. This is a fundamental analysis play that the Special Committee will accept the $9.50 per share offer or even force the offer up higher. This is a longer term profit thesis and I don't anticipate us being out of the trade in just a couple of days like most of our trades. However, anything is possible. If the stock spikes up too quickly, we'll have to sell and take profits.
Even if the offer doesn't go through, the P/E ratio is 12 meaning the present valuation on the stock is good.
I also like the high-demand products this company makes.
For a FREE DAILY EMAIL ALERT on the trend of Fushi Copperweld (FSIN) click here! Just leave NASDAQ_FSIN in for the symbol and enter your name and email address!For a FREE DAILY EMAIL ALERT on the trend of Fushi Copperweld (FSIN) click here! Just leave NASDAQ_FSIN in for the symbol and enter your name and email address!
The Dow is in an uptrend. The Nasdaq has a sidelines rating and it is lagging behind the other major indices. The bad news today from Oracle didn't do the tech heavy Nasdaq any favors. The S&P 500 has an uptrend rating. The Russell 2000 has an uptrend rating. So according to the trends of the major indices, the bulls have a slight advantage over the bears. My thought is that the advantage is not strong enough to go long much of anything. You need to be on the sidelines and the safety of cash.
Gold continues to have a downtrend rating.
The U.S. dollar continues to have an uptrend rating.
The percentage of stocks on the NYSE that are trading above their 50 day moving average has climbed to about 54%. That shows an ever so slight advantage for the bulls. The percent of stocks trading above their 200 day moving average is at 34%. This shows a bearish bias.
The VIX is in a downtrend. Some of this can be contributed to lower volatility due to the coming Christmas holiday and EOY, but not all. The VIX being in a downtrend is bullish for the market.
Looking at the volume on the Nasdaq, neither the bulls or the bears have the advantage over the other. This supports the sidelines rating on the Nasdaq.
The TICK is at a level that is normal for retail trading. It does not give us any insight into what institutional traders are doing.
The Dow is in an uptrend. The Nasdaq has a sidelines rating and it is lagging behind the other major indices. The bad news today from Oracle didn't do the tech heavy Nasdaq any favors. The S&P 500 has an uptrend rating. The Russell 2000 has an uptrend rating. So according to the trends of the major indices, the bulls have a slight advantage over the bears. My thought is that the advantage is not strong enough to go long much of anything. You need to be on the sidelines and the safety of cash.
Gold continues to have a downtrend rating.
The U.S. dollar continues to have an uptrend rating.
The percentage of stocks on the NYSE that are trading above their 50 day moving average has climbed to about 54%. That shows an ever so slight advantage for the bulls. The percent of stocks trading above their 200 day moving average is at 34%. This shows a bearish bias.
The VIX is in a downtrend. Some of this can be contributed to lower volatility due to the coming Christmas holiday and EOY, but not all. The VIX being in a downtrend is bullish for the market.
Looking at the volume on the Nasdaq, neither the bulls or the bears have the advantage over the other. This supports the sidelines rating on the Nasdaq.
The TICK is at a level that is normal for retail trading. It does not give us any insight into what institutional traders are doing.
The Dow is in an uptrend. The Nasdaq has a sidelines rating and it is lagging behind the other major indices. The bad news today from Oracle didn't do the tech heavy Nasdaq any favors. The S&P 500 has an uptrend rating. The Russell 2000 has an uptrend rating. So according to the trends of the major indices, the bulls have a slight advantage over the bears. My thought is that the advantage is not strong enough to go long much of anything. You need to be on the sidelines and the safety of cash.
Gold continues to have a downtrend rating.
The U.S. dollar continues to have an uptrend rating.
The percentage of stocks on the NYSE that are trading above their 50 day moving average has climbed to about 54%. That shows an ever so slight advantage for the bulls. The percent of stocks trading above their 200 day moving average is at 34%. This shows a bearish bias.
The VIX is in a downtrend. Some of this can be contributed to lower volatility due to the coming Christmas holiday and EOY, but not all. The VIX being in a downtrend is bullish for the market.
Looking at the volume on the Nasdaq, neither the bulls or the bears have the advantage over the other. This supports the sidelines rating on the Nasdaq.
The TICK is at a level that is normal for retail trading. It does not give us any insight into what institutional traders are doing.
Yes folks, once again we have destroyed the major indices. The S&P 500 ended down -0.5% for the month while we are up 40% for the month.
Total domination of other traders.
So how did I do it?
If you examine my trades last month, you'll see that I managed to keep my losing trades under 4% on average, while I kept my winning trades above 6% on average. In other words, I cut my losers short, and let my winners ride.
That's probably one of the biggest mistakes newbies make is that they set a stop loss at 20%, while going for a 10% gain. Think about that for a minute. You are risking 20% to make 10%. That means that you have to have TWICE the number of winners as you do losers just to break even. Tilt the math in your favor. Don't risk more than you are trying to gain. If you are going for a 10% gain, then your stop loss should be no greater than 10%.
The other pattern that you'll notice in my trades is that I went long small caps and energy, while going short the S&P 500. Of course I didn't take both positions at the same time. I correctly timed the up and down swings. In other words, I swing traded the gyrations in the market.
The reason that I chose to go long the market in small caps and energy stocks is because of seasonality trends. December and January are the best months for small caps and energy. In October, I confirmed that institutional traders were buying in the energy sector in anticipation of the run up in Oil that comes between February and April each year. The idea is to trade in the direction of the institutional traders, not against.
If you follow me on Twitter then you'll know that I bought TNA today. We are already up 3%+ by the close of trading today. I'd like to get one more big 10%+ up day and then I'll sell and move to the safety of cash. I'm willing to hold until Tuesday of next week but I don't want to. I'd like to take profits and be out of the trade by Friday. Holding over the weekend news cycle is dangerous in this news driven trading market we are currently in.
Who's your daddy?
Yes folks, once again we have destroyed the major indices. The S&P 500 ended down -0.5% for the month while we are up 40% for the month.
Total domination of other traders.
So how did I do it?
If you examine my trades last month, you'll see that I managed to keep my losing trades under 4% on average, while I kept my winning trades above 6% on average. In other words, I cut my losers short, and let my winners ride.
That's probably one of the biggest mistakes newbies make is that they set a stop loss at 20%, while going for a 10% gain. Think about that for a minute. You are risking 20% to make 10%. That means that you have to have TWICE the number of winners as you do losers just to break even. Tilt the math in your favor. Don't risk more than you are trying to gain. If you are going for a 10% gain, then your stop loss should be no greater than 10%.
The other pattern that you'll notice in my trades is that I went long small caps and energy, while going short the S&P 500. Of course I didn't take both positions at the same time. I correctly timed the up and down swings. In other words, I swing traded the gyrations in the market.
The reason that I chose to go long the market in small caps and energy stocks is because of seasonality trends. December and January are the best months for small caps and energy. In October, I confirmed that institutional traders were buying in the energy sector in anticipation of the run up in Oil that comes between February and April each year. The idea is to trade in the direction of the institutional traders, not against.
If you follow me on Twitter then you'll know that I bought TNA today. We are already up 3%+ by the close of trading today. I'd like to get one more big 10%+ up day and then I'll sell and move to the safety of cash. I'm willing to hold until Tuesday of next week but I don't want to. I'd like to take profits and be out of the trade by Friday. Holding over the weekend news cycle is dangerous in this news driven trading market we are currently in.
Who's your daddy?
Yes folks, once again we have destroyed the major indices. The S&P 500 ended down -0.5% for the month while we are up 40% for the month.
Total domination of other traders.
So how did I do it?
If you examine my trades last month, you'll see that I managed to keep my losing trades under 4% on average, while I kept my winning trades above 6% on average. In other words, I cut my losers short, and let my winners ride.
That's probably one of the biggest mistakes newbies make is that they set a stop loss at 20%, while going for a 10% gain. Think about that for a minute. You are risking 20% to make 10%. That means that you have to have TWICE the number of winners as you do losers just to break even. Tilt the math in your favor. Don't risk more than you are trying to gain. If you are going for a 10% gain, then your stop loss should be no greater than 10%.
The other pattern that you'll notice in my trades is that I went long small caps and energy, while going short the S&P 500. Of course I didn't take both positions at the same time. I correctly timed the up and down swings. In other words, I swing traded the gyrations in the market.
The reason that I chose to go long the market in small caps and energy stocks is because of seasonality trends. December and January are the best months for small caps and energy. In October, I confirmed that institutional traders were buying in the energy sector in anticipation of the run up in Oil that comes between February and April each year. The idea is to trade in the direction of the institutional traders, not against.
If you follow me on Twitter then you'll know that I bought TNA today. We are already up 3%+ by the close of trading today. I'd like to get one more big 10%+ up day and then I'll sell and move to the safety of cash. I'm willing to hold until Tuesday of next week but I don't want to. I'd like to take profits and be out of the trade by Friday. Holding over the weekend news cycle is dangerous in this news driven trading market we are currently in.
See How A Shockingly Simple Swing Trading Strategy Can Make You Rich
"Years of chasing the elusive stock trading profits that could slay my day job, finally brings about a life changing discovery: a stock trading system so simple it will shock you..."
You may not think that an automated stock trading system could possibly pump real, spendable cash directly into a bank account day in, and day out. That's good, I want you to be skeptical.
Being skeptical means you're smart. And working smart instead of working hard is one of the key secrets to killing it at stock trading.
And in order to profit big at stock trading without lifting a finger or spending even one minute on research, you've got to know another truth....
Here it is:
Everyone and everything else you've encountered makes stock trading seem WAY harder than it really is, and admittedly, it can be very hard, if you're making a go at it all by yourself.... And remember, we're about working smart and we're definitely NOT about working hard.
Remember, the simplest solution is the most correct. Why should it be any different with stock trading?
It isn't any different. But those who pad their wallets with your hard earned investment money have to convince you that it is just too hard for you to do. They have to mystify you. That's what keeps them in business.
If some investor-banker-hot-shot in a suit and tie told you that you could make a million bucks a year while vacationing and enjoying your life, all on your own, with a simple piece of software, well, you wouldn't hire him to handle your investments! Instead, you'd
Grab that software, snatch it up, run the thing, and start collecting cash!
But I consulted with friends who helped me remember the situation I had been in years prior, one of 8-5 hard work with little money left after the rent and groceries.
I didn't want that to be the reason for you to miss out on a true life-changer, so, I decided I'm going to show you the exact stock trading system FREE. Further, I'm going to hook you up with a 30 day trial offer for only $8.95-- Yup. Try it out for 30 days and if you don't triple that initial $8.95 investment, just cancel and you won't be charged again.
But you don't NEED the tool I show you in this video to benefit from this trading system! If you are good at establishing the trend on your own, you don't need anything more than the trend trading tutorial below.
So let's begin!
Trend Following is an investment strategy that tries to take advantage of wave like moves that occur in every market.
Traders who employ a trend following strategy do not aim to forecast or predict specific price levels; they simply jump on the trend and ride it.
Every trader needs a trend to make money. If you think about it, no matter what the technique, if there is not a trend after you buy, then you will not be able to sell at higher prices.
The idea is not to try and buy a bottom or sell a top but rather to make money off that sweet middle area.
Keep in mind these time frames:
1 Minute = Scalpers
5 Minute = Day Traders
60 Minute = Position Traders
Daily = Investors
Weekly = Mutual Fund Managers
All trends will start out in the 1 minute and progress upward to the next time frame. Think of time frames as another class of trader that's being sucked in to a stock.
The best trends to trade are ones that start out with scalpers jumping in. So many scalpers jump in that after about 10 minutes, day traders begin jumping in. Over the next hour, more and more day traders begins jumping in which then pulls in the position traders. All through the day, more and more position traders pile in. After the market close, the end of day charts show a buy signal and so the next day, investors that use daily charts begin to jump in. Over the next week, the strong uptrend continues, and mutual fund managers begin buying on pullbacks for a long term hold.
See How A Shockingly Simple Swing Trading Strategy Can Make You Rich"Years of chasing the elusive stock trading profits that could slay my day job, finally brings about a life changing discovery: a stock trading system so simple it will shock you..."
You may not think that an automated stock trading system could possibly pump real, spendable cash directly into a bank account day in, and day out. That's good, I want you to be skeptical.
Being skeptical means you're smart. And working smart instead of working hard is one of the key secrets to killing it at stock trading.
And in order to profit big at stock trading without lifting a finger or spending even one minute on research, you've got to know another truth....
Here it is:
Everyone and everything else you've encountered makes stock trading seem WAY harder than it really is, and admittedly, it can be very hard, if you're making a go at it all by yourself.... And remember, we're about working smart and we're definitely NOT about working hard.
Remember, the simplest solution is the most correct. Why should it be any different with stock trading?
It isn't any different. But those who pad their wallets with your hard earned investment money have to convince you that it is just too hard for you to do. They have to mystify you. That's what keeps them in business.
If some investor-banker-hot-shot in a suit and tie told you that you could make a million bucks a year while vacationing and enjoying your life, all on your own, with a simple piece of software, well, you wouldn't hire him to handle your investments! Instead, you'd
Grab that software, snatch it up, run the thing, and start collecting cash!
But I consulted with friends who helped me remember the situation I had been in years prior, one of 8-5 hard work with little money left after the rent and groceries.
I didn't want that to be the reason for you to miss out on a true life-changer, so, I decided I'm going to show you the exact stock trading system FREE. Further, I'm going to hook you up with a 30 day trial offer for only $8.95-- Yup. Try it out for 30 days and if you don't triple that initial $8.95 investment, just cancel and you won't be charged again.
But you don't NEED the tool I show you in this video to benefit from this trading system! If you are good at establishing the trend on your own, you don't need anything more than the trend trading tutorial below.
So let's begin!Trend Following is an investment strategy that tries to take advantage of wave like moves that occur in every market.
Traders who employ a trend following strategy do not aim to forecast or predict specific price levels; they simply jump on the trend and ride it.
Every trader needs a trend to make money. If you think about it, no matter what the technique, if there is not a trend after you buy, then you will not be able to sell at higher prices.
The idea is not to try and buy a bottom or sell a top but rather to make money off that sweet middle area.
Keep in mind these time frames:
1 Minute = Scalpers
5 Minute = Day Traders
60 Minute = Position Traders
Daily = Investors
Weekly = Mutual Fund Managers
All trends will start out in the 1 minute and progress upward to the next time frame. Think of time frames as another class of trader that's being sucked in to a stock.
The best trends to trade are ones that start out with scalpers jumping in. So many scalpers jump in that after about 10 minutes, day traders begin jumping in. Over the next hour, more and more day traders begins jumping in which then pulls in the position traders. All through the day, more and more position traders pile in. After the market close, the end of day charts show a buy signal and so the next day, investors that use daily charts begin to jump in. Over the next week, the strong uptrend continues, and mutual fund managers begin buying on pullbacks for a long term hold.
CLICK HERE FOR A SPECIAL TRIAL OFFER OF THE TREND TRADING TOOL SEEN IN THE STOCK TRADING TUTORIAL BELOWCLICK HERE FOR A SPECIAL TRIAL OFFER OF THE TREND TRADING TOOL SEEN IN THIS STOCK TRADING TUTORIAL
See How A Shockingly Simple Swing Trading Strategy Can Make You Rich"Years of chasing the elusive stock trading profits that could slay my day job, finally brings about a life changing discovery: a stock trading system so simple it will shock you..."
You may not think that an automated stock trading system could possibly pump real, spendable cash directly into a bank account day in, and day out. That's good, I want you to be skeptical.
Being skeptical means you're smart. And working smart instead of working hard is one of the key secrets to killing it at stock trading.
And in order to profit big at stock trading without lifting a finger or spending even one minute on research, you've got to know another truth....
Here it is:
Everyone and everything else you've encountered makes stock trading seem WAY harder than it really is, and admittedly, it can be very hard, if you're making a go at it all by yourself.... And remember, we're about working smart and we're definitely NOT about working hard.
Remember, the simplest solution is the most correct. Why should it be any different with stock trading?
It isn't any different. But those who pad their wallets with your hard earned investment money have to convince you that it is just too hard for you to do. They have to mystify you. That's what keeps them in business.
If some investor-banker-hot-shot in a suit and tie told you that you could make a million bucks a year while vacationing and enjoying your life, all on your own, with a simple piece of software, well, you wouldn't hire him to handle your investments! Instead, you'd
Grab that software, snatch it up, run the thing, and start collecting cash!
But I consulted with friends who helped me remember the situation I had been in years prior, one of 8-5 hard work with little money left after the rent and groceries.
I didn't want that to be the reason for you to miss out on a true life-changer, so, I decided I'm going to show you the exact stock trading system FREE. Further, I'm going to hook you up with a 30 day trial offer for only $8.95-- Yup. Try it out for 30 days and if you don't triple that initial $8.95 investment, just cancel and you won't be charged again.
But you don't NEED the tool I show you in this video to benefit from this trading system! If you are good at establishing the trend on your own, you don't need anything more than the trend trading tutorial below.
So let's begin!Trend Following is an investment strategy that tries to take advantage of wave like moves that occur in every market.
Traders who employ a trend following strategy do not aim to forecast or predict specific price levels; they simply jump on the trend and ride it.
Every trader needs a trend to make money. If you think about it, no matter what the technique, if there is not a trend after you buy, then you will not be able to sell at higher prices.
The idea is not to try and buy a bottom or sell a top but rather to make money off that sweet middle area.
Keep in mind these time frames:
1 Minute = Scalpers
5 Minute = Day Traders
60 Minute = Position Traders
Daily = Investors
Weekly = Mutual Fund Managers
All trends will start out in the 1 minute and progress upward to the next time frame. Think of time frames as another class of trader that's being sucked in to a stock.
The best trends to trade are ones that start out with scalpers jumping in. So many scalpers jump in that after about 10 minutes, day traders begin jumping in. Over the next hour, more and more day traders begins jumping in which then pulls in the position traders. All through the day, more and more position traders pile in. After the market close, the end of day charts show a buy signal and so the next day, investors that use daily charts begin to jump in. Over the next week, the strong uptrend continues, and mutual fund managers begin buying on pullbacks for a long term hold.
CLICK HERE FOR A SPECIAL TRIAL OFFER OF THE TREND TRADING TOOL SEEN IN THE STOCK TRADING TUTORIAL BELOWCLICK HERE FOR A SPECIAL TRIAL OFFER OF THE TREND TRADING TOOL SEEN IN THIS STOCK TRADING TUTORIAL
All the major indices, the Dow, Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Russell 2000, have strong downtrend ratings.
The price action has fallen back into the previous trading range. Sometimes that happens folks. What you need to get yourself mentally prepared for is a reversal at previous supports.
Price remembers. Past battles between bulls and bears leave their mark long after the fight ends. As stocks pass through old price levels, they must continually navigate the trading debris generated by these prior events.
Use trend mirrors (TMs) to interpret these volatile chart zones. Look horizontally at past action to predict where price bars should bounce or fail. Current movement will often mimic the angle and extent of past patterns. TMs locate support and resistance hotspots just as clear air targets bar expansion. When price action swings repeatedly off either side of a mirror, odds increase that price will act the same way during the next pass. These chart memory levels can act as classic support and resistance or mark a swing axis for price to shift back and forth.
The way I'm playing a market bounce is by buying ERX. ERX is an Energy Bull 3x leverage play.
However you play it, just remember the lower end of the trading range on the S&P 500 which is a support zone from 1150 to 1074.77. This support zone represents the best probability for going long to capture the next swing move up.
The trends on the major indices support the thesis that the bears have an advantage over the bulls going into trading next week. Let's see if the market internal indicators confirm.
The TICK has a -1023 reading. Wow! This suggests institutional selling. However, keep in mind that while it labels bearish sentiment for institutional traders, it also is the level at which the TICK swings up over the next week.
Looking under the hood on the Nasdaq, the advance decline volume chart has fallen back below the 0 line and so it favors the bears.
Only 20% of stocks on the NYSE are trading above their 50 day moving average. This is bearish. Only 17% of stocks are trading above their 200 day moving average. Again, a bearish bias.
The VIX has a strong uptrend rating. This means that PUT buying or hedging is on the rise which is bearish for the market.
According to the market internals, they all favor the bears on top thesis going into trading next week. Now let's look at some other markets of interest.
The US Dollar is in a strong uptrend and it is approaching resistance near 80. The strong uptrend on the US Dollar is pushing gold down.
Gold has a downtrend rating. In last weeks video, I told you gold had a sidelines rating and so you should sell and get out. I hope you did that.
Silver is worse off than gold with a strong downtrend rating.
Junior gold miners are in a strong downtrend. Large cap gold miners are also in a strong downtrend.
Oil is in an uptrend. It just had a Resurrection Cross last week and this is one reason why I bought ERX today.
Fundamental analysis reports that moved markets last week were: Tuesday's GDP, Wednesday's Personal Income and Outlays and Durable Goods Orders.
The GDP report showed that the economy got a moderate downgrade for the third quarter but the downgrade largely came from where there is the least damage to forward momentum. The Commerce Department's second estimate for third quarter GDP growth was bumped down to an increase of 2.0 percent annualized, compared to the initial estimate of 2.5 percent and to second quarter growth of 1.3 percent. Analysts had forecast a revision to 2.4 percent annualized.
Personal income and spending posted additional gains in October. Inflation was tame but subscribers of Guerilla Stock Trading have known this for several months now with the charts of DBO and DBA. Personal income in October advanced 0.4 percent, following a 0.1 percent increase in September. The October rise came in higher than the market median projection for 0.3 percent. The wages & salaries component posted an even stronger 0.5 percent boost after rebounding 0.4 percent the month before.
Durables orders in October were pulled down by a drop in civilian aircraft orders. Otherwise, durables orders were moderately positive net. New factory orders for durables fell 0.7 percent, following a decline of 1.5 percent the prior month (previous estimate, down 0.6 percent). The October decline was less negative than the consensus forecast for a 1.0 percent fall. Excluding transportation, durables advanced 0.7 percent after a 0.6 percent rebound in September. The October increase topped the consensus forecast for no change in durables excluding transportation.
Fundamental analysis reports with the greatest probability of moving markets next week are:
Thursday - Dec 01, 2011 = ISM Mfg Index
Friday - Dec 02, 2011 = Employment Situation
All the major indices, the Dow, Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Russell 2000, have strong downtrend ratings.
The price action has fallen back into the previous trading range. Sometimes that happens folks. What you need to get yourself mentally prepared for is a reversal at previous supports.
Price remembers. Past battles between bulls and bears leave their mark long after the fight ends. As stocks pass through old price levels, they must continually navigate the trading debris generated by these prior events.
Use trend mirrors (TMs) to interpret these volatile chart zones. Look horizontally at past action to predict where price bars should bounce or fail. Current movement will often mimic the angle and extent of past patterns. TMs locate support and resistance hotspots just as clear air targets bar expansion. When price action swings repeatedly off either side of a mirror, odds increase that price will act the same way during the next pass. These chart memory levels can act as classic support and resistance or mark a swing axis for price to shift back and forth.
The way I'm playing a market bounce is by buying ERX. ERX is an Energy Bull 3x leverage play.
However you play it, just remember the lower end of the trading range on the S&P 500 which is a support zone from 1150 to 1074.77. This support zone represents the best probability for going long to capture the next swing move up.
The trends on the major indices support the thesis that the bears have an advantage over the bulls going into trading next week. Let's see if the market internal indicators confirm.
The TICK has a -1023 reading. Wow! This suggests institutional selling. However, keep in mind that while it labels bearish sentiment for institutional traders, it also is the level at which the TICK swings up over the next week.
Looking under the hood on the Nasdaq, the advance decline volume chart has fallen back below the 0 line and so it favors the bears.
Only 20% of stocks on the NYSE are trading above their 50 day moving average. This is bearish. Only 17% of stocks are trading above their 200 day moving average. Again, a bearish bias.
The VIX has a strong uptrend rating. This means that PUT buying or hedging is on the rise which is bearish for the market.
According to the market internals, they all favor the bears on top thesis going into trading next week. Now let's look at some other markets of interest.
The US Dollar is in a strong uptrend and it is approaching resistance near 80. The strong uptrend on the US Dollar is pushing gold down.
Gold has a downtrend rating. In last weeks video, I told you gold had a sidelines rating and so you should sell and get out. I hope you did that.
Silver is worse off than gold with a strong downtrend rating.
Junior gold miners are in a strong downtrend. Large cap gold miners are also in a strong downtrend.
Oil is in an uptrend. It just had a Resurrection Cross last week and this is one reason why I bought ERX today.
Fundamental analysis reports that moved markets last week were: Tuesday's GDP, Wednesday's Personal Income and Outlays and Durable Goods Orders.
The GDP report showed that the economy got a moderate downgrade for the third quarter but the downgrade largely came from where there is the least damage to forward momentum. The Commerce Department's second estimate for third quarter GDP growth was bumped down to an increase of 2.0 percent annualized, compared to the initial estimate of 2.5 percent and to second quarter growth of 1.3 percent. Analysts had forecast a revision to 2.4 percent annualized.
Personal income and spending posted additional gains in October. Inflation was tame but subscribers of Guerilla Stock Trading have known this for several months now with the charts of DBO and DBA. Personal income in October advanced 0.4 percent, following a 0.1 percent increase in September. The October rise came in higher than the market median projection for 0.3 percent. The wages & salaries component posted an even stronger 0.5 percent boost after rebounding 0.4 percent the month before.
Durables orders in October were pulled down by a drop in civilian aircraft orders. Otherwise, durables orders were moderately positive net. New factory orders for durables fell 0.7 percent, following a decline of 1.5 percent the prior month (previous estimate, down 0.6 percent). The October decline was less negative than the consensus forecast for a 1.0 percent fall. Excluding transportation, durables advanced 0.7 percent after a 0.6 percent rebound in September. The October increase topped the consensus forecast for no change in durables excluding transportation.
Fundamental analysis reports with the greatest probability of moving markets next week are:
Thursday - Dec 01, 2011 = ISM Mfg Index
Friday - Dec 02, 2011 = Employment Situation
All the major indices, the Dow, Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Russell 2000, have strong downtrend ratings.
The price action has fallen back into the previous trading range. Sometimes that happens folks. What you need to get yourself mentally prepared for is a reversal at previous supports.
Price remembers. Past battles between bulls and bears leave their mark long after the fight ends. As stocks pass through old price levels, they must continually navigate the trading debris generated by these prior events.
Use trend mirrors (TMs) to interpret these volatile chart zones. Look horizontally at past action to predict where price bars should bounce or fail. Current movement will often mimic the angle and extent of past patterns. TMs locate support and resistance hotspots just as clear air targets bar expansion. When price action swings repeatedly off either side of a mirror, odds increase that price will act the same way during the next pass. These chart memory levels can act as classic support and resistance or mark a swing axis for price to shift back and forth.
The way I'm playing a market bounce is by buying ERX. ERX is an Energy Bull 3x leverage play.
However you play it, just remember the lower end of the trading range on the S&P 500 which is a support zone from 1150 to 1074.77. This support zone represents the best probability for going long to capture the next swing move up.
The trends on the major indices support the thesis that the bears have an advantage over the bulls going into trading next week. Let's see if the market internal indicators confirm.
The TICK has a -1023 reading. Wow! This suggests institutional selling. However, keep in mind that while it labels bearish sentiment for institutional traders, it also is the level at which the TICK swings up over the next week.
Looking under the hood on the Nasdaq, the advance decline volume chart has fallen back below the 0 line and so it favors the bears.
Only 20% of stocks on the NYSE are trading above their 50 day moving average. This is bearish. Only 17% of stocks are trading above their 200 day moving average. Again, a bearish bias.
The VIX has a strong uptrend rating. This means that PUT buying or hedging is on the rise which is bearish for the market.
According to the market internals, they all favor the bears on top thesis going into trading next week. Now let's look at some other markets of interest.
The US Dollar is in a strong uptrend and it is approaching resistance near 80. The strong uptrend on the US Dollar is pushing gold down.
Gold has a downtrend rating. In last weeks video, I told you gold had a sidelines rating and so you should sell and get out. I hope you did that.
Silver is worse off than gold with a strong downtrend rating.
Junior gold miners are in a strong downtrend. Large cap gold miners are also in a strong downtrend.
Oil is in an uptrend. It just had a Resurrection Cross last week and this is one reason why I bought ERX today.
Fundamental analysis reports that moved markets last week were: Tuesday's GDP, Wednesday's Personal Income and Outlays and Durable Goods Orders.
The GDP report showed that the economy got a moderate downgrade for the third quarter but the downgrade largely came from where there is the least damage to forward momentum. The Commerce Department's second estimate for third quarter GDP growth was bumped down to an increase of 2.0 percent annualized, compared to the initial estimate of 2.5 percent and to second quarter growth of 1.3 percent. Analysts had forecast a revision to 2.4 percent annualized.
Personal income and spending posted additional gains in October. Inflation was tame but subscribers of Guerilla Stock Trading have known this for several months now with the charts of DBO and DBA. Personal income in October advanced 0.4 percent, following a 0.1 percent increase in September. The October rise came in higher than the market median projection for 0.3 percent. The wages & salaries component posted an even stronger 0.5 percent boost after rebounding 0.4 percent the month before.
Durables orders in October were pulled down by a drop in civilian aircraft orders. Otherwise, durables orders were moderately positive net. New factory orders for durables fell 0.7 percent, following a decline of 1.5 percent the prior month (previous estimate, down 0.6 percent). The October decline was less negative than the consensus forecast for a 1.0 percent fall. Excluding transportation, durables advanced 0.7 percent after a 0.6 percent rebound in September. The October increase topped the consensus forecast for no change in durables excluding transportation.
Fundamental analysis reports with the greatest probability of moving markets next week are:
Thursday - Dec 01, 2011 = ISM Mfg Index
Friday - Dec 02, 2011 = Employment Situation
I've come to the conclusion that it's a waste of time arguing with people over YouTube, Twitter, and other social media services.
I've spent the greater part of a day taking the fight to my ideological opponents rather than playing defense and waiting for them to come to my channel and troll my videos.
I destroyed my opponents because of my vast depth of knowledge concerning Wall Street and politics. I was also crowned the king at debate in College at one time taking on the entire class while I argued a position just to help the instructor make a point. Indeed, a good college education teaches you to be able to argue any position, on any subject, on a moments notice.
But it's vain babbling folks and it's a waste of time. Think about it. You're talking to some guy with an alias fake name who won't even tell you who he really is. Then you find out he's 18 and lives at home under Mom and Dad's roof still and you're like, I'm dumb for wasting my time arguing with children.
Folks, I've nailed readers a 33% profit in trading for the month of October. Congratulations if you've been able to trade with me and nail some of those gains yourself.
The big story today is MF Global filing for bankruptcy. Former governor of New Jersey, Jon Corzine essentially made a huge bet at the derivatives tables and lost. This is what happens when you let egos get involved in the markets over just reading charts and sticking with a stop loss.
MF Global is a great example of how NOT to trade. You always think risk mitigation. You always plan a what if this trade blows up and goes against me, what am I going to do? What is my stop loss going to be? What is my profit thesis?
When the trade goes against you, you don't rationalize. You don't hit your 5% stop loss and so, well, the market is in a swing move down, it'll come back next week, I'm going to raise my stop loss to 10%. Then 10% is hit and you say, oh man, it's on sale right now! I'm going to double down and buy more to lower my cost basis. I'm going to move my stop loss to 20%. Then 20% is hit and say, oh no, I can't sell now! I can't afford to take such a big loss! I've just got to tighten down the hatches and ride the storm out. No! You don't trade like that. When your original profit thesis is violated, you get out. When your original stop loss is hit, you get out. Never rationalize why you're still holding on to a losing position. Rationalization is the devil in stock trading.
I've come to the conclusion that it's a waste of time arguing with people over YouTube, Twitter, and other social media services.
I've spent the greater part of a day taking the fight to my ideological opponents rather than playing defense and waiting for them to come to my channel and troll my videos.
I destroyed my opponents because of my vast depth of knowledge concerning Wall Street and politics. I was also crowned the king at debate in College at one time taking on the entire class while I argued a position just to help the instructor make a point. Indeed, a good college education teaches you to be able to argue any position, on any subject, on a moments notice.
But it's vain babbling folks and it's a waste of time. Think about it. You're talking to some guy with an alias fake name who won't even tell you who he really is. Then you find out he's 18 and lives at home under Mom and Dad's roof still and you're like, I'm dumb for wasting my time arguing with children.
Folks, I've nailed readers a 33% profit in trading for the month of October. Congratulations if you've been able to trade with me and nail some of those gains yourself.
The big story today is MF Global filing for bankruptcy. Former governor of New Jersey, Jon Corzine essentially made a huge bet at the derivatives tables and lost. This is what happens when you let egos get involved in the markets over just reading charts and sticking with a stop loss.
MF Global is a great example of how NOT to trade. You always think risk mitigation. You always plan a what if this trade blows up and goes against me, what am I going to do? What is my stop loss going to be? What is my profit thesis?
When the trade goes against you, you don't rationalize. You don't hit your 5% stop loss and so, well, the market is in a swing move down, it'll come back next week, I'm going to raise my stop loss to 10%. Then 10% is hit and you say, oh man, it's on sale right now! I'm going to double down and buy more to lower my cost basis. I'm going to move my stop loss to 20%. Then 20% is hit and say, oh no, I can't sell now! I can't afford to take such a big loss! I've just got to tighten down the hatches and ride the storm out. No! You don't trade like that. When your original profit thesis is violated, you get out. When your original stop loss is hit, you get out. Never rationalize why you're still holding on to a losing position. Rationalization is the devil in stock trading.
I've come to the conclusion that it's a waste of time arguing with people over YouTube, Twitter, and other social media services.
I've spent the greater part of a day taking the fight to my ideological opponents rather than playing defense and waiting for them to come to my channel and troll my videos.
I destroyed my opponents because of my vast depth of knowledge concerning Wall Street and politics. I was also crowned the king at debate in College at one time taking on the entire class while I argued a position just to help the instructor make a point. Indeed, a good college education teaches you to be able to argue any position, on any subject, on a moments notice.
But it's vain babbling folks and it's a waste of time. Think about it. You're talking to some guy with an alias fake name who won't even tell you who he really is. Then you find out he's 18 and lives at home under Mom and Dad's roof still and you're like, I'm dumb for wasting my time arguing with children.
Folks, I've nailed readers a 33% profit in trading for the month of October. Congratulations if you've been able to trade with me and nail some of those gains yourself.
The big story today is MF Global filing for bankruptcy. Former governor of New Jersey, Jon Corzine essentially made a huge bet at the derivatives tables and lost. This is what happens when you let egos get involved in the markets over just reading charts and sticking with a stop loss.
MF Global is a great example of how NOT to trade. You always think risk mitigation. You always plan a what if this trade blows up and goes against me, what am I going to do? What is my stop loss going to be? What is my profit thesis?
When the trade goes against you, you don't rationalize. You don't hit your 5% stop loss and so, well, the market is in a swing move down, it'll come back next week, I'm going to raise my stop loss to 10%. Then 10% is hit and you say, oh man, it's on sale right now! I'm going to double down and buy more to lower my cost basis. I'm going to move my stop loss to 20%. Then 20% is hit and say, oh no, I can't sell now! I can't afford to take such a big loss! I've just got to tighten down the hatches and ride the storm out. No! You don't trade like that. When your original profit thesis is violated, you get out. When your original stop loss is hit, you get out. Never rationalize why you're still holding on to a losing position. Rationalization is the devil in stock trading.
Stocks Above I Currently Hold In My Own Trading Account: Long LIFE
Guerilla Trader Quote
“Your losing trades do not diminish you as a person. You are not your losing trades. You are also not winning your trades either. They are simply by-products of the business that you’re in.”
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The Dow is in a strong uptrend. This reveals a defensive component to this current move up. The Russell 2000, which is a great way to measure the aggressiveness of Bulls, has a sidelines rating which supports the view that this is a defensive swing move up. What we'd like to see is the Russell 2000 having a strong uptrend and leading the other major indices higher. We don't have that yet so you need to be careful with jumping in with both feet on the long side right now. It's going to continue to be difficult to make money on the long side with the Dow leading this market higher.
Talk about more of the same! We closed today almost at the exact same level we did Friday of last week.
If you follow me on Twitter then you already know that I bought Fushi Copperweld, Inc. (FSIN) today in my own personal trading account.
The Dow is in an uptrend. The Nasdaq has a sidelines rating and it is lagging behind the other major indices. The bad news today from Oracle didn't do the tech heavy Nasdaq any favors. The S&P 500 has an uptrend rating. The Russell 2000 has an uptrend rating. So according to the trends of the major indices, the bulls have a slight advantage over the bears. My thought is that the advantage is not strong enough to go long much of anything. You need to be on the sidelines and the safety of cash.
Who's your daddy?
All the major indices, the Dow, Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Russell 2000, have strong downtrend ratings.
I've come to the conclusion that it's a waste of time arguing with people over YouTube, Twitter, and other social media services.
Guerilla Stock Trading University