Stock Market Forecast For Trading Week Of May 13 2013

Posted on May 11, 2013 by Stock Trading Master

The DOW, S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000 are all in strong uptrends; therefore, my rating going into next week is that the Bulls have a strong advantage over the Bears.

Market internals mostly support that view although we had to throw out the Elder system applied to SPY this week because we had a split signal in two different time frames.

Most Institional Buying All Year Last Week

Probably the most impressive evidence of a strong bull rally is from the TICK which showed HUGE institutional buying on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday of last week. Wednesday was the highest reading on the TICK in more than a year which suggests heavy institutional trader activity.

Institutional traders mostly bought Materials, Industrials, Technology, Finance, Utilities, and cyclical stocks. Last week confirmed a breakout in cyclical stocks which is a great sign for the economy. Cyclical stocks are the first to move up on an improving economy, and the first to move down on a bad economy. The reason is that cyclical stocks are companies that people tend to buy their products and services when they have more money like houses and cars. Non-cyclical stocks are things like toothpaste and toilet paper that people are going to buy no matter how bad the economy gets.

Among recent gainers, offensive sectors tied to economic growth such as technology and financial stocks have been catching up after lagging for most of the year.

What About Sell In May and Go Away?

With the Dow and the S&P 500 hitting more record closing highs last week, the start of the weakest 6 months of the year and the “Sell in May and Go Away” may come later this year or simply not at all. About a month ago I told subscribers to use the S&P 500 MACD in the Weekly time frame to confirm a sell signal and the start of Sell In May. If you did not listen to me then you were headfaked by a MACD sell signal in the daily time frame a few weeks back. Let’s continue to look for a MACD sell signal in the Weekly time frame on the S&P 500 and continue to trade the long side until/if we get it.

Fundamental analysis reports with the greatest probability of moving markets next week are:
Mon – May 13, 2013 = Retail Sales
Wed – May 15, 2013 = Industrial Production, Producer Price Index
Thu – May 16, 2013 = Consumer Price Index, Housing Starts

IF YOU LIKE MY WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS, YOU OUGHT TO SEE THE DAILY ANALYSIS FROM MY TEACHER JB! HE’S ON A HOT STREAK RIGHT NOW!

Jason Bond Picks Hits 2 Winners Today!

Posted on May 8, 2013 by Stock Trading Master

jason-bond-picks Jason Bond Picks hit another 2 winners today! One win was from Jason in UVXY for a 5% or $2,582 gain in 1 day, and the other win was from “Jedi” Luke in the live day trading chat for a 43% win or $10,750 with a hold overnight.

There is not a lot of good looking swing trade setups right now so it was pretty amazing to have 2 big winners on a day like today.

In this episode, we study both Jason and Luke’s winning trades to better understand how some of the best traders on Wall Street look at charts in both the daily and 1 minute time frames.

IF YOU THINK THIS LESSON WAS GOOD, YOU OUGHT TO SEE WHAT ELSE JASON BOND PICKS HAS TO OFFER! CLICK HERE TO CHECK OUT HIS SERVICE! HE’S ON A HOT STREAK RIGHT NOW! DON’T YOU WANT TO BE ON A HOT STREAK TOO?

Stock Market Forecast For Trading Week Of April 22 2013

Posted on April 20, 2013 by Stock Trading Master

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All the major indices have weak downtrend ratings accept for the DOW which has a weak uptrend. Weak uptrends and downtrends have to be viewed as sidelines ratings in this market. My rating for trading next week is that you should be on the sidelines and the safety of cash.

Last Monday I detected institutional traders selling on the TICK. Most of the selling took place in the Energy sector. This is because the price of oil continues to fall. Energy has long been a favorite of institutional traders but that may be starting to change right now.

Sell In May

The sell in May and the worst 6 months of the year for the stock market is upon us. We use a 12-25-9 on the MACD to confirm the sell in May move is here. If you look at the MACD in the daily time frame, we’ve had a series of head fakes over the last several weeks. This is why I favor using the 12-25-9 MACD in the “Weekly” time frame this year instead of the daily. It filters out the head fakes to the downside.

Stocks sold off earlier in the week on recent weak economic data and a plunge in commodity prices. The major European and U.S. indices posted their worst weekly performances this year. The sell-off this week was triggered by signs of sluggish global growth.

Fundamental analysis reports that moved markets last week were Tuesday’s Industrial Production, Housing Starts, and Consumer Price Index.

Industrial production was up more than expected in March but it was due to utilities output, not manufacturing, which declined. Overall industrial production gained 0.4 percent after a 1.1 percent spike in February (originally up 0.8 percent). Unusually cold weather drove up utilities output. Analysts projected a 0.2 percent rise for overall production.

Housing starts were unexpectedly strong in March but it was all in the multifamily family component. In March, housing starts jumped 7.0 percent after a 7.3 percent gain the month before. The March starts annualized level of 1.036 million units topped analysts’ forecast for 0.930 million units and was up 46.7 percent on a year-ago basis.

In a partial reversal of February, lower energy costs brought down headline CPI inflation in March. The core rate also eased. The consumer price index for March declined 0.2 percent after jumping 0.7 in February. The March pace came in below market expectations for no change. The core CPI-excluding food and energy-slowed to a 0.1 percent pace, following a 0.2 percent rise the month before. Analysts projected a 0.2 percent gain.

Fundamental analysis reports with the greatest probability of moving markets next week are:
Wed – Apr 24, 2013 = Durable Goods Orders
Fri – Apr 26, 2013 = GDP

IF YOU LIKE MY WEEKLY STOCK MARKET ANALYSIS, YOU OUGHT TO SEE THE DAILY ANALYSIS FROM MY TEACHER JB. HE’S ON A HOT STREAK RIGHT NOW!

Stock Market Forecast For Trading Week of April 14 2013

Posted on April 12, 2013 by Stock Trading Master

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The DOW, S&P 500, and NASDAQ are in strong uptrends while the Russell 2000 is in an uptrend. My rating for next week is that the Bulls have a strong advantage over the Bears going into trading next week.

We are in a honey badger market. The honey badger doesn’t care about anything. It has no fear. It will fight a cobra or walk into a bee hive to eat. This translates into the market doesn’t care about economic numbers or earnings. It just keeps going up. Slowing GDP growth? Honey badger doesn’t give a s@#!.

We even had some institutional traders buying the market on Wednesday of last week. Most of the buying took place in Health care, Materials, Energy, and Technology.

Fundamental analysis reports that moved markets last week were: Friday’s Producer Price Index and Retail Sales.

The headline number was much weaker than expected but it was almost all related to a fall in gasoline prices. The March producer price index fell back 0.6 percent after a strong 0.7 percent boost in February. Market expectations were for a 0.2 percent decline.

Retail sales in March came in below expectation and weakness was broad based. Retail sales declined 0.4 percent, following a surge of 1.0 percent in February (originally up 1.1 percent). Market expectations were for no change.

Tue – Apr 16, 2013 = Industrial Production, Housing Starts, and Consumer Price Index

Stock Market Update April 4 2013

Posted on April 3, 2013 by Stock Trading Master

lance-LOL

What a dangerous face ripping market this is folks. The DOW is in a strong uptrend but the NASDAQ and S&P 500 both have sidelines ratings. The Russell 2000 has a downtrend rating. What a split!

This is a risk off, or flight to safety market. That’s why the defensive DOW is outperforming the other major indices right now.

The Russell 2000 or small caps are leading the market lower. Folks, we trade small caps. If you follow JB’s picks or my picks, we trade small caps. If you use the Finviz stock screener settings I showed you in an earlier video then you trade small caps. We trade small caps because we are looking for growth stocks. We are trying to grow our wealth as fast as possible and small caps are the way to do that. However, small caps lead the other major indices both up and down.

Right now the Russell 2000 is in a downtrend meaning that most of the sweet chart setups and valuations are to be found in small caps right now. However, it also means that we can’t try to force swing long trades in a downtrending market.

In this episode, you’ll see how I’m playing this very challenging, and dangerous, market.

Stock Market Forecast For Trading Week Of April 1st 2013

Posted on March 29, 2013 by Stock Trading Master

stock market forecast

The DOW, NASDAQ, and S&P 500 are all in strong uptrends. The Russell 2000 is in an uptrend. We would like to have small caps leading the other major indices higher but hey, good enough. My forecast for trading next week is that the Bulls have a strong advantage over the Bears going into trading next week.

Record Breaking S&P 500 Boosts Wall Street Sentiment

The S&P 500 closed Thursday at a record high of 1,569.19. The S&P 500 is up a whopping 10% for the first quarter.

I see next week as a pivotal week. The big question on traders minds is will the S&P 500 do a Triple Top Breakout or will it reverse and head lower, forming a Bearish Triple Top. You can see how important the next few weeks will be by looking at the chart below.

Will the general recovery in the U.S. continue or will European markets pull down U.S. markets is every traders focus going into April and the final month in the best 6 months of the year for the stock market.

“The basic scenario for the second quarter will be for the U.S. to maintain its economic recovery trend, which is key to sustaining hopes for improvement in global growth,” said Junya Tanase, chief FX strategist at JPMorgan Chase Bank in Tokyo.

Fundamental analysis reports that moved markets last week were: Tuesday’s Durable Goods Orders, and Thursday’s GDP.

Aircraft led durables orders to soar in February-but the core disappointed with a modest decline. New factory orders for durables jumped a monthly 5.7 percent, following a 3.8 percent decrease in January. Market expectations were for a 3.5 percent increase. The transportation component rebounded a sharp 21.7 percent in February after dropping 17.8 percent the prior month.

Economic growth was revised marginally higher into positive territory. Real GDP growth for the fourth quarter was revised up to an annualized rate of plus 0.4 percent from the second estimate of 0.1 percent and compared to a third quarter gain of 3.1 percent. Expectations were for 0.6 percent.

Another important fundamental report I should mention was the Personal Income and Outlays release Friday, during the Good Friday market holiday when markets were closed. While individuals are coping with higher payroll taxes, aggregate personal income posted a sizeable gain in February and personal spending rose significantly.

Fundamental analysis reports with the greatest probability of moving markets next week are:
Mon – Apr 01, 2013 = ISM Mfg Index
Fri – Apr 05, 2013 = Employment Situation, International Trade

Stock Trading Watch List For February 25 2013

Posted on February 24, 2013 by Stock Trading Master

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Last week we did a good job from the stocks on the watch list. Not all of them were winners but we cut our losers short and we let the winners ride.

The is good when you consider that we didn’t get the bounce in the Euro/US Dollar FOREX currency pair like we wanted last week. Is this the week for the bounce? On Thursday and Friday we had lower shadows on the candlesticks and hammer like patterns. Who knows but if it does bounce, the market is going to rip higher and we’ll make killer money in these swing longs.

Remember, the goal is 5% to 10% pop anywhere from 1 to 4 days then get out. Also, set a tight stop loss just below the nearest major support which is usually the lower end of the long shadow reversal or what is most comfortable for you.

Also these are NOT buys! They are watch list additions. We are looking for an entry on a candle over candle pattern or a Market Club daily buy triangle, which ever comes first.

As always, do your own research!

Watch List For Week of February 25, 2013

Quicksilver Resources Inc. (KWK) – This bastard hurt me over the last 2 weeks. Have a horrible record timing the swings on this one but am not giving up. Like the way over sold RSI. Got to be careful before entering this one, may chop out and go lower.

Meritor, Inc. (MTOR) – Crazy EPS growth forecast for this stock. Awesome when you consider the stock has pulled back nicely to lower trend channel support.

Mueller Water Products, Inc. (MWA) – Awesome EPS growth forecast. Stock broke lower trend channel support and is searching for new support. Thursday had nice long shadow candlestick but Friday was brutal. Must be patient and stalk for candle over candle because when it comes, this stock has a history of running and running big!

Quantum Corporation (QTM) – Great winner for us last week. Bearish engulfing on Friday could see the stock drop to $1.20 support and chop out before candle over candle signal. Crazy EPS next year of +140% is awesome.

Silvercorp Metals Inc. (SVM) – Damn dudes. I was afraid to buy this one on the candle over candle signal because it’s a silver mining stock. Miners have been killed lately plus I suck at trading gold and silver miners. Already big move Friday but may enter early on Monday if stock continues to move. Sweet oversold on RSI moving higher. EPS next year is estimated at +85.7%

AK Steel Holding Corporation (AKS) – Mind blowing EPS next year of +860%. Stock is trying to form a new low in here after breaking up trend channel support last week.

Gafisa S.A. (GFA) – This stock is so dangerous as it’s tied to Brazil which got crushed last week. Did candle over candle on Friday but I couldn’t pull the trigger. Beautiful RSI move higher over 30 line and eye popping EPS next year of +3,500%! Another one I might enter early Monday if stock continues to move. Gave back some of Friday’s huge gains in after hours.

IF YOU LIKE MY WATCH LIST STOCKS YOU OUGHT TO SEE MY TEACHER JB’s WATCH LIST! CLICK HERE TO CHECK OUT HIS SERVICE! HE’S ON A HOT STREAK RIGHT NOW!

Stock Trading Watch List Additions ACI, AMD, ANR, HOV, MWA

Posted on February 11, 2013 by Stock Trading Master

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February continues to be a brutal month so far for those using a trend following strategy. We have transitioned into a trading market with the ADX line on the S&P 500 going flat and the Bollinger Bands narrowing. This is a range contraction market we have entered which favors a swing trading approach.

AMD had a daily buy triangle today which moved it from the watch list to a buy. Another buy addition was MWA which already had a daily buy triangle signal on Thursday, February 7th but that has been moving counter to the signal since. Today MWA formed a beautiful doji right off the 50 day moving average line.

The stock screener I used to find these stocks is Finviz. The settings for the stock screener are shown in the video below which are: market cap $300 mil to $2 billion, price less than $10, beta greater than 1.5, and volume greater than 1 million. The pattern we are looking for is stocks at major support levels that have a history of bouncing. Always compute the risk versus reward ratio when setting your stop loss and make sure the math is in your favor (i.e. risk $0.20 per share to make $0.60 per share).

I am not long any stocks mentioned in this video in my personal account but may enter into long positions within the next 72 hours.

Watch List and Buy Additions For Tuesday, February 12 2013