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Archive for the 'technical analysis' Category



There are certain times of the year when specific markets and sectors do better. We call this seasonality.

The Santa Claus rally is a rise in stock prices in the month of December, generally seen over the last week of trading in December.

Focusing on the month of December and taking into account the last 10 years of market activity, I have created probability charts for you.

In the video below, I will show you the probability charts of the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000.

You will notice that the seasonality pattern clearly shows that the start of December and the end of December have the greatest probability of the market closing up.

When the Dow closes below its December closing low in the first quarter, it is frequently an excellent warning sign. The December Low Indicator was originated by Lucien Hooper, a Forbes columnist and Wall Street analyst back in the 1970s. Hooper dismissed the importance of January and January's first week as reliable indicators. He noted that the trend could be random or even manipulated during a holiday-shortened week. Instead pay much more attention to the December low. If that low is violated during the first quarter of the New Year, watch out!

There is also seasonality concerning sectors that have a tendency to outperform other sectors based on the time of year. In December Oil and Gas stocks tend to outperform.

There are certain times of the year when specific markets and sectors do better. We call this seasonality. The Santa Claus rally is a rise in stock prices in the month of December, generally seen over the last week of trading in December. Focusing on the month of December and taking into account the last 10 years of market activity, I have created probability charts for you. In the video below, I will show you the probability charts of the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000. You will notice that the seasonality pattern clearly shows that the start of December and the end of December have the greatest probability of the market closing up. When the Dow closes below its December closing low in the first quarter, it is frequently an excellent warning sign. The December Low Indicator was originated by Lucien Hooper, a Forbes columnist and Wall Street analyst back in the 1970s. Hooper dismissed the importance of January and January's first week as reliable indicators. He noted that the trend could be random or even manipulated during a holiday-shortened week. Instead pay much more attention to the December low. If that low is violated during the first quarter of the New Year, watch out! There is also seasonality concerning sectors that have a tendency to outperform other sectors based on the time of year. In December Oil and Gas stocks tend to outperform.


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Fundamental analysis of Citibank suggests bottom feeders with a long term investment horizon of several years or more may start buying Citibank (NYSE:C).

In their April shareholders meeting, Citibank promised to raise their dividend and also to start a share buyback within the next year.

Citi has been profitable every quarter in 2010 and had recorded total earnings of $10.6 billion in its first year in the black since the crisis.

They also carried out a one-for-ten reverse stock split that set the price at $40. Such a reverse stock split is important to lure in institutional investors who may have in-house rules that prohibit the purchase of any stock under $5.

Citi has also started paying a very small dividend and appears set to raise that dividend over the coming year. Citi explained that the dividend, albeit small, would enable more funds to buy Citi shares. Some fund managers are not allowed to buy stocks of companies that do not pay dividends.

When a big corporate bank sets up a Facebook page and wants you to "like" them, it's, well, probably not the best idea.

You ever work for an American corporation? Being sick is defined as can't walk or you're in the hospital.

I mean people just don't like big corporations. Nobody likes doing business with a corporation. They do business with real people and individuals at that corporation. People do business with individuals, not big faceless corporations.

So Citigroup, in an attempt to improve investor relations, has set up a Facebook page and they want you to "like" them.

So instead of doing something like increasing their dividend or buying back shares, Citigroup has chosen the cheap a** path of creating a Facebook page to wow investors.

Don't get me wrong. Facebook is a great site for loners. It's the only place where they can talk to a wall and not be considered mentally insane.

Maybe Citigroup will be the underwriter when they merge FaceBook, MySpace, and Twitter into one mega-super social networking conglomerate corporation. CEO of Citigroup, the genius Vikram Pandit, will call it "My Twit Face."

Citigroup's Facebook page to woo investors is already paying off with comments like "Vikram we C stock holders need your help!!! Stock dropped like crazy since the split!" and "The worst company ever!". Or this classic, "Why did Citibank start the Icelandic volcano eruption? Because they made a fortune shorting all the airline stocks!" My personal favorite Facebook comment has to be, "How many Citibank bankers does it take to change a light bulb? Two. One to take out the bulb and drop it, and the other to try and sell it before it crashes."

I just can't buy stock in a company that responds to investors complaints of poor stock performance by setting up a Facebook page and trying to get people to "like" them. But I want to know what you think. Has a company creating a Facebook page ever brought you value as an investor?

Fundamental analysis of Citibank suggests bottom feeders with a long term investment horizon of several years or more may start buying Citibank (NYSE:C). In their April shareholders meeting, Citibank promised to raise their dividend and also to start a share buyback within the next year. Citi has been profitable every quarter in 2010 and had recorded total earnings of $10.6 billion in its first year in the black since the crisis. They also carried out a one-for-ten reverse stock split that set the price at $40. Such a reverse stock split is important to lure in institutional investors who may have in-house rules that prohibit the purchase of any stock under $5. Citi has also started paying a very small dividend and appears set to raise that dividend over the coming year. Citi explained that the dividend, albeit small, would enable more funds to buy Citi shares. Some fund managers are not allowed to buy stocks of companies that do not pay dividends. When a big corporate bank sets up a Facebook page and wants you to "like" them, it's, well, probably not the best idea. You ever work for an American corporation? Being sick is defined as can't walk or you're in the hospital. I mean people just don't like big corporations. Nobody likes doing business with a corporation. They do business with real people and individuals at that corporation. People do business with individuals, not big faceless corporations. So Citigroup, in an attempt to improve investor relations, has set up a Facebook page and they want you to "like" them. So instead of doing something like increasing their dividend or buying back shares, Citigroup has chosen the cheap a** path of creating a Facebook page to wow investors. Don't get me wrong. Facebook is a great site for loners. It's the only place where they can talk to a wall and not be considered mentally insane. Maybe Citigroup will be the underwriter when they merge FaceBook, MySpace, and Twitter into one mega-super social networking conglomerate corporation. CEO of Citigroup, the genius Vikram Pandit, will call it "My Twit Face." Citigroup's Facebook page to woo investors is already paying off with comments like "Vikram we C stock holders need your help!!! Stock dropped like crazy since the split!" and "The worst company ever!". Or this classic, "Why did Citibank start the Icelandic volcano eruption? Because they made a fortune shorting all the airline stocks!" My personal favorite Facebook comment has to be, "How many Citibank bankers does it take to change a light bulb? Two. One to take out the bulb and drop it, and the other to try and sell it before it crashes." I just can't buy stock in a company that responds to investors complaints of poor stock performance by setting up a Facebook page and trying to get people to "like" them. But I want to know what you think. Has a company creating a Facebook page ever brought you value as an investor?


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My friend, who you'll often hear me call the 'Millionaire Trader', has released a video for GuerillaStockTrading.com readers on gold and where he thinks this market is headed.

Kenny, Adam's assistant, writes, "Good morning Lance. Gold had a big breakout to the upside that many people have been waiting for. Adam got to work making a video immediately and I wanted to get it to you ASAP."

In the video below, Adam shares with you his upside target zones for gold.

I like the cyclic analysis Adam does on the gold market to project a price target, and a date, for where he sees gold by August to September 2011. This is some creepy cool analysis and how you can see that gold is making a new swing high every 22 to 24 months.

Gold has recently fell back below $1,430 though so none of this is a slam dunk foregone conclusion.

Check out this killer video.

My friend, who you'll often hear me call the 'Millionaire Trader', has released a video for GuerillaStockTrading.com readers on gold and where he thinks this market is headed. Kenny, Adam's assistant, writes, "Good morning Lance. Gold had a big breakout to the upside that many people have been waiting for. Adam got to work making a video immediately and I wanted to get it to you ASAP." In the video below, Adam shares with you his upside target zones for gold. I like the cyclic analysis Adam does on the gold market to project a price target, and a date, for where he sees gold by August to September 2011. This is some creepy cool analysis and how you can see that gold is making a new swing high every 22 to 24 months. Gold has recently fell back below $1,430 though so none of this is a slam dunk foregone conclusion. Check out this killer video.


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I Tweeted/Facebooked in real time when I bought the United States Natural Gas ETF (UNG) today before market close.

Folks I like this stock chart.

In 2010, natural gas got beaten down something bad.

Supply exceeded demand and the price of natural gas fell big time.

New shale drilling techniques exploded the supply of natural gas the United States has. This helped spur on the U.S. Department of Energy to approve exporting of liquid natural gas (LNG).

The United States appears set to become a major exporter of natural gas as natural gas companies scramble to install LNG conversion equipment on their facilities.

Will 2011 be the turn around year for natural gas? I don't know. But I do like this chart.

Look at the huge buy spike today! Folks that can only be institutional investors and money managers buying up millions of dollars in natural gas companies today.

In the video and podcast below, I look at the chart of UNG and show you exactly why I bought this stock right before market close today.

For a FREE daily email alert on the trend of the US Natural Gas ETF (UNG) click here. Just leave the PACF_UNG in for the symbol and enter your name and email address.

For a FREE daily email alert on the trend of the US Natural Gas ETF (UNG) click here. Just leave the PACF_UNG in for the symbol and enter your name and email address.

I Tweeted/Facebooked in real time when I bought the United States Natural Gas ETF (UNG) today before market close. Folks I like this stock chart. In 2010, natural gas got beaten down something bad. Supply exceeded demand and the price of natural gas fell big time. New shale drilling techniques exploded the supply of natural gas the United States has. This helped spur on the U.S. Department of Energy to approve exporting of liquid natural gas (LNG). The United States appears set to become a major exporter of natural gas as natural gas companies scramble to install LNG conversion equipment on their facilities. Will 2011 be the turn around year for natural gas? I don't know. But I do like this chart. Look at the huge buy spike today! Folks that can only be institutional investors and money managers buying up millions of dollars in natural gas companies today. In the video and podcast below, I look at the chart of UNG and show you exactly why I bought this stock right before market close today. For a FREE daily email alert on the trend of the US Natural Gas ETF (UNG) click here. Just leave the PACF_UNG in for the symbol and enter your name and email address. For a FREE daily email alert on the trend of the US Natural Gas ETF (UNG) click here. Just leave the PACF_UNG in for the symbol and enter your name and email address.


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JP Morgan (JPM) confirmed a breakout today above a key resistance level that has kept the stock in a trading range for most of 2010.

But it gets even better.

A Resurrection Cross has taken place where the 50 day moving average has crossed above the 200 day moving average.

I know. Some of you are thinking how much you hate JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs. Some of you think these companies are not ethical for how they profited off the biggest meltdown in real estate since the Great Depression.

Stock trading has nothing to do with ethics. If you are such an ethical person, go join a church. Become a preacher. But don't bring ethics, which is a subset of ideology, into your stock trading decisions. Remember, all your decisions should be based on mathematics and charts, not on ideology.

JP Morgan has their hands in everything and so this breakout in a financial bell weather stock like JPM is not only bullish for the finance sector, but for the economy as a whole.

Now I need to disclose to you that just a couple of days ago, I bought a financial fund in my 401K. This fund probably has some JP Morgan stock in it. I say probably because the prospectus is a freakish book and I don't have the time to read it all so I'd rather error on the side of too much disclosure than not enough. The financial fund I bought trades for around $11. I can easily see this fund in 2 or 3 years trading around $20 to $30. I take a longer term investing approach when it comes to my 401K unless the market dictates otherwise.

I like finance for a long term, turn around play folks.

In the video and podcast below, I talk about the significance of today's confirmation of the breakout in financial sector bell weather JP Morgan (JPM).

JP Morgan (JPM) confirmed a breakout today above a key resistance level that has kept the stock in a trading range for most of 2010. But it gets even better. A Resurrection Cross has taken place where the 50 day moving average has crossed above the 200 day moving average. I know. Some of you are thinking how much you hate JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs. Some of you think these companies are not ethical for how they profited off the biggest meltdown in real estate since the Great Depression. Stock trading has nothing to do with ethics. If you are such an ethical person, go join a church. Become a preacher. But don't bring ethics, which is a subset of ideology, into your stock trading decisions. Remember, all your decisions should be based on mathematics and charts, not on ideology. JP Morgan has their hands in everything and so this breakout in a financial bell weather stock like JPM is not only bullish for the finance sector, but for the economy as a whole. Now I need to disclose to you that just a couple of days ago, I bought a financial fund in my 401K. This fund probably has some JP Morgan stock in it. I say probably because the prospectus is a freakish book and I don't have the time to read it all so I'd rather error on the side of too much disclosure than not enough. The financial fund I bought trades for around $11. I can easily see this fund in 2 or 3 years trading around $20 to $30. I take a longer term investing approach when it comes to my 401K unless the market dictates otherwise. I like finance for a long term, turn around play folks. In the video and podcast below, I talk about the significance of today's confirmation of the breakout in financial sector bell weather JP Morgan (JPM).


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The chart of FedEx (FDX) is in a strong uptrend! Yes, with all the negative people everywhere, it seems incredible. But it's true.

FedEx (FDX) has been in an uptrend since July of 2010.

I did a video months ago about how FedEx leads the S&P 500 both up and down. This is a bell weather company folks. As the economy slowly strengthens, FedEx's uptrend should continue. This stock being in an uptrend is a bullish leading indicator for the entire economy!

Let's all hope that it leads to a drop in the unemployment rate within the next 6 months.

FOR A 2 WEEK FREE TRIAL OF THE STOCK SCREENER AND CHARTING TOOL SEEN IN THIS VIDEO CLICK HERE. THIS IS NOT A BS CREDIT CARD REQUIRED TRIAL EITHER. NO CREDIT CARD IS REQUIRED! THIS IS A FREE AND CLEAR, NO OBLIGATION TRIAL. CLICK HERE TO START USING THIS TOOL IN THE NEXT 2 MINUTES. FIND YOUR NEXT BIG MONEY MAKING TRADE NOW!

FOR A 2 WEEK FREE TRIAL OF THE STOCK SCREENER AND CHARTING TOOL SEEN IN THIS VIDEO CLICK HERE. THIS IS NOT A BS CREDIT CARD REQUIRED TRIAL EITHER. NO CREDIT CARD IS REQUIRED! THIS IS A FREE AND CLEAR, NO OBLIGATION TRIAL. CLICK HERE TO START USING THIS TOOL IN THE NEXT 2 MINUTES. FIND YOUR NEXT BIG MONEY MAKING TRADE NOW!

The chart of FedEx (FDX) is in a strong uptrend! Yes, with all the negative people everywhere, it seems incredible. But it's true. FedEx (FDX) has been in an uptrend since July of 2010. I did a video months ago about how FedEx leads the S&P 500 both up and down. This is a bell weather company folks. As the economy slowly strengthens, FedEx's uptrend should continue. This stock being in an uptrend is a bullish leading indicator for the entire economy! Let's all hope that it leads to a drop in the unemployment rate within the next 6 months. FOR A 2 WEEK FREE TRIAL OF THE STOCK SCREENER AND CHARTING TOOL SEEN IN THIS VIDEO CLICK HERE. THIS IS NOT A BS CREDIT CARD REQUIRED TRIAL EITHER. NO CREDIT CARD IS REQUIRED! THIS IS A FREE AND CLEAR, NO OBLIGATION TRIAL. CLICK HERE TO START USING THIS TOOL IN THE NEXT 2 MINUTES. FIND YOUR NEXT BIG MONEY MAKING TRADE NOW! FOR A 2 WEEK FREE TRIAL OF THE STOCK SCREENER AND CHARTING TOOL SEEN IN THIS VIDEO CLICK HERE. THIS IS NOT A BS CREDIT CARD REQUIRED TRIAL EITHER. NO CREDIT CARD IS REQUIRED! THIS IS A FREE AND CLEAR, NO OBLIGATION TRIAL. CLICK HERE TO START USING THIS TOOL IN THE NEXT 2 MINUTES. FIND YOUR NEXT BIG MONEY MAKING TRADE NOW!


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Happy Thanksgiving Day! We're having Thanksgiving at my house this year, like we did last year.

Yeah, it's tough but there's always a feeling of satisfaction that you helped make Thanksgiving enjoyable for your family and friends.

The markets look bullish folks with an upgrade of the S&P 500 to a weak uptrend rating.

But it's more than just the S&P 500 chart that shows bulls controlling the trend, it's the Russell 2000.

The Russell 2000 is in a strong uptrend. Why do technicians watch the Russell 2000? It has a tendency to lead the S&P 500 both on the upside and the downside. The reason is that the Russell 2000 is made up of 2000 small cap stocks. When bulls are on the offensive, they usually are more willing to gamble in small cap stocks. A strong uptrend on the Russell 2000 shows less of a defense and more of an offense by the bulls.

The Energy sector continues to be in an uptrend and doing well as Oil swings up and looks ready to run back to $90.

XLF is back into its trading range and is in a very weak downtrend. I use XLF to measure if a trader is a retard. If you're still in banking and have been since May of 2010, you just need to accept the fact that you, yes you, are a retard. That's ok. Retards have a right to trade to. Just know and embrace how stupid you are for going long in banking some 7 months and counting too early.

I think the real surprise that nobody is talking about is Biotech. The Biotech sector is in a strong uptrend and has been for awhile now.

In the video below, I cover many sectors and stocks that are likely to pay out very well over the coming weeks.

FOR A FREE TWO WEEK TRIAL, NO CREDIT CARD REQUIRED, OF THE TREND RATING TOOL SEEN IN THIS VIDEO, CLICK HERE

FOR A FREE TWO WEEK TRIAL, NO CREDIT CARD REQUIRED, OF THE TREND RATING TOOL SEEN IN THIS VIDEO, CLICK HERE

Happy Thanksgiving Day! We're having Thanksgiving at my house this year, like we did last year. Yeah, it's tough but there's always a feeling of satisfaction that you helped make Thanksgiving enjoyable for your family and friends. The markets look bullish folks with an upgrade of the S&P 500 to a weak uptrend rating. But it's more than just the S&P 500 chart that shows bulls controlling the trend, it's the Russell 2000. The Russell 2000 is in a strong uptrend. Why do technicians watch the Russell 2000? It has a tendency to lead the S&P 500 both on the upside and the downside. The reason is that the Russell 2000 is made up of 2000 small cap stocks. When bulls are on the offensive, they usually are more willing to gamble in small cap stocks. A strong uptrend on the Russell 2000 shows less of a defense and more of an offense by the bulls. The Energy sector continues to be in an uptrend and doing well as Oil swings up and looks ready to run back to $90. XLF is back into its trading range and is in a very weak downtrend. I use XLF to measure if a trader is a retard. If you're still in banking and have been since May of 2010, you just need to accept the fact that you, yes you, are a retard. That's ok. Retards have a right to trade to. Just know and embrace how stupid you are for going long in banking some 7 months and counting too early. I think the real surprise that nobody is talking about is Biotech. The Biotech sector is in a strong uptrend and has been for awhile now. In the video below, I cover many sectors and stocks that are likely to pay out very well over the coming weeks. FOR A FREE TWO WEEK TRIAL, NO CREDIT CARD REQUIRED, OF THE TREND RATING TOOL SEEN IN THIS VIDEO, CLICK HERE FOR A FREE TWO WEEK TRIAL, NO CREDIT CARD REQUIRED, OF THE TREND RATING TOOL SEEN IN THIS VIDEO, CLICK HERE


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My China solar pick LDK Solar (LDK) beat expectations and has put on a big move in after hours trading.

LDK Solar said Monday, after market close, that its net income tripled from a year ago.

LDK said its third-quarter net income was $93.4 million, or 72 cents per American depositary share, compared with $29.4 million, or 27 cents per ADS, a year earlier.

Revenue more than doubled to $675.6 million from $281.9 million a year ago.

Analysts were expecting 43 cents per ADS on revenue of $628.1 million.

Daily Chart of LDK Solar (LDK)

LDK Solar Stock Chart

This chart does not include the action in after hours. The fact that the stock is testing previous resistance going into the close means we have a high probability of a breakout at market open.

I have marked each indicator with a + if its bullish, or an 'n' for neutral.

With 6 bullish indicators and one neutral indicator, there is a 85% probability that the stock will move higher tomorrow.

My China solar pick LDK Solar (LDK) beat expectations and has put on a big move in after hours trading. LDK Solar said Monday, after market close, that its net income tripled from a year ago. LDK said its third-quarter net income was $93.4 million, or 72 cents per American depositary share, compared with $29.4 million, or 27 cents per ADS, a year earlier. Revenue more than doubled to $675.6 million from $281.9 million a year ago. Analysts were expecting 43 cents per ADS on revenue of $628.1 million. Daily Chart of LDK Solar (LDK) LDK Solar Stock Chart This chart does not include the action in after hours. The fact that the stock is testing previous resistance going into the close means we have a high probability of a breakout at market open. I have marked each indicator with a + if its bullish, or an 'n' for neutral. With 6 bullish indicators and one neutral indicator, there is a 85% probability that the stock will move higher tomorrow.


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