In one of the most shocking examples of left-leaning media bias so far in 2017, CNBC quoted Ethan Harris, head of global economics at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, as saying, “He’s [President Trump] taking over at a pretty good time. The economy is at full employment; wages are beginning to accelerate. You’re not in (Read More….)
Barron’s just released a cover story that suggests that President-elect Donald Trump should take steps to make U.S. trade policy freer than it is now after a backslide during the past 15 years. Barron’s goes on to assert that any aggressive push by Trump to hike tariffs will face resistance from a Republican-dominated Congress that (Read More….)
Small cap stocks are the place to be in a Trump Administration. Trump’s economic policies will negatively impact large multinational corporations like Apple. Small cap stocks are all about domestic companies.
Small cap stocks generate most of their profits inside the US, exactly where Trump’s economic agenda is targeting.
Since Election Day, small cap stocks (Read More….)
Protectionist policies in the form of tariffs and quotas are coming from a Trump Administration. It seems appropriate then that we examine tariffs and quotas from a macroeconomics perspective.
The two most common ways of restricting trade are with tariffs and quotas. From a political point of view and to prevent a trade war, a (Read More….)
Donald Trump told Lesley Stahl of CBS that he would not take the $400,000 a year salary as President of the United States. Donald Trump said, “I think I have to take by law one dollar so I’ll take one dollar a year.”
When was the last time you heard a President refuse the presidential (Read More….)
I predict that a Trump win means down for the economy at first, then upward as the US consumer strengthens from domestic job growth.
The down first move in the economy will come from inefficiencies caused by forcing multinational corporations to bring domestic production facilities back to the US or face steep tariffs.
Several traders (Read More….)
Increases in government regulation, taxes, environmental regulations, and ObamaCare on businesses, shifted the aggregate supply (AS) curve inward and thus reduced aggregate demand (AD).
With the explosion higher in the cost of doing business, businesses hired fewer workers. In fact, many small businesses reduced the size of their workforce in response to ObamaCare. Less (Read More….)
Goldman Sachs just hired exchange owner Nasdaq Inc. to run its dark pool Sigma X stock-trading system. The Nasdaq has spent years working on “Ocean,” its dark pool hosting service.
Dark pools are similar to standard markets with one big exception; they can hide their activity by not printing the trades to any public data (Read More….)
The Federal Reserve held short-term interest rates steady as traders expected. In the Fed’s postmeeting policy statement, it said it only needed “some further evidence” of economic progress before moving forward with a rate hike.
What exactly is the further evidence that the Fed needs? To answer that, you have to know about what (Read More….)
As traders, we track the monthly Employment Situation report closely. The market often does a short-term move on the first Friday of every month when the Employment Situation report for the previous month is released. Do you understand what the Employment report is showing? I bet many traders do not. As traders, we have to (Read More….)
The prospect of a Federal Reserve rate hike is driving up the US dollar. The rising US dollar has a significant impact on the US economy and thus stock market. It’s important that traders understand the implications of a rising US dollar from a macroeconomic perspective.
Rising US interest rates mean that a lot of (Read More….)
Do you remember when the WSJ, CNN, CNBC, NBC, ABC, CBS, Bloomberg, Forbes, and Reuters ran stories at the start of the year about how no one even knows who was advising Trump on economic matters? They even went as far to say that Trump had no support of any economists.
That never sat right (Read More….)
California, New Jersey, and New York have the most cities with rent control. Sanctuary cities in California like San Francisco and Los Angeles have some of the toughest rent controls. Rent controls hurt the local economy and make rental unit availability worse. Aggregate deadweight loss from rent controls across the country negatively impacts the US (Read More….)
Inflationary expectations are the expectations that consumers have concerning future inflation. If buyers expect higher prices in the future, they increase their demand in the present. This shifts the aggregate demand curve outward (to the right) which is good for the economy. For example, if the price of a house is expected to be higher (Read More….)
Bill and Hillary Clinton’s NAFTA helped Mexico at the expense of US workers.
Economists against NAFTA in the 1990s warned everyone that all Mexico had to do was to devalue their currency to gain comparative advantage over the US for just about every product produced. The chart below shows Mexico has been devaluing their (Read More….)
Saudi Arabia is now offering an international bond that yields 4.6%. The WSJ writes…
The $6.5 billion 30-year portion of Saudi Arabia’s bond is set to pay 2.1 percentage points more in yield than a comparable U.S. Treasury, or around 4.6%. That is a sizeable pickup in a world where developed-market bond yields are on (Read More….)
We have enough data to say that inflation is finally trending higher.
In case you are wondering why inflation moving higher is important, please review this.
The less volatile sticky CPI confirms the uptrend.
ObamaCare has exploded the cost of medical care higher.
Medical care commodities, which are prescription and (Read More….)
ObamaCare has created massive shortages within the healthcare sector. In cities, it is common to wait many hours before being seen as hospitals have a shortage of beds. Doctors have stopped taking new patients as they are overwhelmed by the numbers of people coming to see them. Let’s examine what happened from a macroeconomics perspective.
Illegal immigration negatively impacts the hourly wage of US citizens. Illegal immigrants are pouring across the Mexico border, and we have no way of counting them but what we can do is track legal immigration from Mexico then double the number for a fuzzy-math estimate.
With legal immigration and an impenetrable border, economists working (Read More….)
As wages rise, more and more business owners are turning to machines instead of human labor. President Obama and Democrats have spent the last 8 years replacing high-paying jobs in the manufacturing sector with low-paying jobs in the services and health care sectors. But in all fairness, both Republicans and Democrats are to blame for (Read More….)
We all love rising wages, but it is rising wages that will cause the next recession and Bear market.
Below is a chart of labor costs (red) versus corporate profits (blue).
A clear pattern emerges from the chart above. Profits rise after a recession as labor costs fall. When the labor market reaches (Read More….)