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You Can Learn A Lot From A Gold And Silver Bug

Posted On : May 9th, 2011 | Updated On : May 9th, 2011

You can learn a lot from a gold and silver bug. When the price of silver began moving up at too great an angle at the end of April, many gold and silver analysts began publishing happy articles about how silver was going parabolic. Your first warning that silver was about to pullback was the sudden drop off in buy side volume. Nobody wanted to buy and chase gold at $48. Next, you had a downside breakout, or a breakdown of the previous strong uptrend in silver. As a technical analyst, I alerted you that silver was a sell at around $42.50 and you can go back and see the video I did on that on my YouTube channel. There was even a huge cluster of sell side volume where silver fell from around $49 to about $32.50 over a period of 5 days. Rather than look at the supply versus demand volume, gold and silver bugs said now was the time to go "all in" and buy even more. They totally ignored the buy versus sell volume and the new fair value of silver that the market set. The dynamic interplay between buyers and sellers determines value for markets. It is when we see volume expanding on a directional price move that we realize that the market is out of balance. It will continue to move in its direction until it can attract sufficient buying or selling interest to create a new balance. Rather than accept that the market had set a new fair value price for silver, gold and silver bugs did not want to believe their eyes, believe the new reality set by the market place. The difficulty accepting the obvious is the result of a need to believe something different. It isn't just that the individual is blinded to reality: it's a desire to perceive a different reality. Reality spinners like Peter Schiff create a fake reality where the U.S. dollar has no value, and gold and silver are the only things that do have value. Of course reality is just the opposite. People get paid in US dollars. You can't even go into a fast-food place and buy an order of small fries with gold. I tried in Wendy's as I talked about in a video last year. I was told that I could not buy anything in Wendy's with gold. I even went into a grocery store and tried to buy garbage bags with gold. Again, I was told no. In most cases where traders fail to act on breakout moves--or worse, get run over by them as in the case with silver--there is a situation where the trader was actively anticipating a different kind of market. Once this becomes part of their analysis, it becomes their opinion, and their ego gets caught up in it. The term traders use is that they become "married to their opinion". This opinion and ego dynamic interplay can be witnessed first had in the heated comments on a video I did last week entitled: "The End Of Days For Peter Schiff?" People have their ego so caught up in gold and silver that grown adults have been reduced to child like behaviors of creating fake aliases on YouTube and posting hate filled comments on that video. Ego has no place in trading. Ego reduces grownups to little children. Ego brings down so called market gurus because they dig their heals in to save face rather than to respond to the reality of the marketplace. What I've found is helpful is the creation of "what-if" scenarios. It's a great way to tell if a trader has a bias. In April when silver went up too quickly, I asked a trader what he would do if silver broke the 50 day moving average line. He proclaimed that wasn't going to happen. I asked him to entertain me and the thought for a moment. He refused and said I was asking him to entertain something that was impossible. He said that silver trades at a 16 to 1 ratio to gold and because gold was going to be $5,000 by year end, that put silver at around $300 per ounce. At that point I knew I wasn't talking with a trader but instead a gold and silver bug who was trading in his own alternate reality: gold fantasy.

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