The Dow is in an uptrend. The Nasdaq is in a downtrend. The S&P 500 has a sidelines rating. The Russell 2000 is in a very weak downtrend. My prediction for trading next week is that the Bears have the advantage over Bulls.
Stock Market Forecast April 2014
April “Best Month” for Dow since 1950;
Day-before-Good Friday gains are nifty.
April is the best month of the year for the Dow. The Stock Traders Almanac says April is prone to weakness after mid-month tax deadline. April is also the last month in the best 6 months of the year. We often see selling in April as traders attempt to play “Sell In May and Go Away” early. After all, nobody wants to be the guy running for the exit at the same time the herd is running for the exit in May.
The stock market prediction algorithm shows a lot of traders closing out of long positions on Friday, ahead of the weekend news cycle. This is the second Friday in the last few weeks where we had a big sell-off going into the weekend. This is likely the result of the NWO using NGOs to do what the CIA use to do: regime change around the world.
Institutional buying was detected on April 1st, 2014 which is normal for the first day of the new quarter. It is often the result of money managers investing 401k and retirement account money on the first day of the new quarter.
Institutional selling was detected by our stock market prediction algorithm on Friday, April 4th, 2014. It was a mirror opposite of what happened on Tuesday, April 1st, 2014.
The Employment Situation report was more of the same, very slow job growth mainly in temporary jobs and low paying service sector jobs.
Earnings season begins next week with Alcoa leading things off on Tuesday, April 1st, 2014.
Stock Market Prediction 2014
The stock market prediction for 2014 is still down. The U.S. government, Federal Reserve, and big money managers and hedge funds have hit the mainstream media saying that the U.S. economy is going to have a big 2nd quarter improvement and will continue to strengthen through the second half of the year. I see little reason to trump the January Barometer which signaled stocks will close down for the year in 2014 (the January Barometer is right 75% of the time).
The Aries Sun and Stock Market Prediction
With the Sun in Aries over the next few weeks, the probability of war breaking out runs high. War usually results in a sell off on Wall Street so make sure you limit your market exposure. For example, try to close out your trades by the end of the day and certainly by the end of the week so you do not hold any positions over the weekend news cycle.
The major fundamental analysis reports of last week were: Tuesday’s ISM Mfg Index, Thursday’s Jobless Claims, and Friday’s Employment Situation report.
Manufacturing did bounce back from a very soft February but not quite as much as expected. The ISM index rose only 5 tenths to 53.7.
Jobless claims moved higher but the trend is still favorable. Initial claims rose 16,000 in the March 29 week to 326,000, which is 6,000 over the consensus.
Job growth did bounce back from early months and the winter effect, but not as much as forecast. Total nonfarm payroll jobs rose 192,000 in March after a 197,000 boost in February and a 144,000 increase in January. The net revision for the prior two months was up 37,000. Expectations for March were for 206,000.
The fundamental analysis reports with the greatest probability of moving markets next week are:
Wednesday, Apr 9 = FOMC Minutes
Thursday, Apr 10 = Jobless Claims
Friday, Apr 11 = PPI-FD