DryShips Inc. owns a fleet of 40 drybulk carriers comprised of seven Capesize, 29 Panamax, two Supramax, and two newbuilding drybulk vessels, as well as two ultra-deep-water semi-submersible drilling rigs and two ultra-deep-water newbuilding drillships. The Company's drybulk fleet carries a variety of drybulk commodities including coal, iron ore, and grains, bauxite, phosphate, fertilizers and steel products. DryShips Inc. employs its drybulk vessels under period time charters, on bareboat charters, in the spot charter market and in drybulk carrier pools. Its subsidiaries include Ocean Rig ASA, DrillShips Investment Inc. and Primelead Shareholders Inc.
Drybulk shippers have been hammered in this recession, and DRYS was probably hit the worst.
Less than a year ago, DRYS traded above $110 a share. Today you can buy this stock at $6.27.
April appears to be the bottom in DRYS. This month DryShips announced the signing of the Petrobras Contract. Its wholly owned subsidiary Ocean Rig ASA signed a 3-year employment contract with Petrobras for exploration drilling in the Black Sea for its semi-submersible rig, the Leiv Eiriksson. The contract is expected to commence in direct continuation from the current contract with Shell. The contract value is approximately USD $630,000,000 and includes an estimated 60 days of mobilization, disassembly and reassembly of the derrick structure, and an incentive bonus of 8%.
April was also a big month in that DRYS secured additional financing, something that had been pushing the stock down for months. The ATM Equity Offering allowed DryShips to raise gross proceeds of approximately $500 million. Merrill Lynch & Co. acted as sales agent in the offering. Following the completion of the program, the Company has approximately 184,760,000 common shares outstanding.
George Economou, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of the Company, commented: "Given the status of the world economy, the fact that we have successfully raised $500 million of primary equity is a testament of DryShip's ability to tap the capital markets at any point in time. We would like to thank Merrill Lynch & Co. for their assistance. We believe the primary equity that we have raised has significantly improved our balance sheet and liquidity, and will enable us to continue reducing our debt obligations while also allowing us to take advantage of future growth opportunities."
The well respected Oppenheimer went NUTS over the ATM Equipty offering success buying an estimated 5 to 10 million shares on Friday, April 17th, 2009. Oppenheimer upgraded the stock to OUTPERFORM.
I bought about $600 worth of DRYS this morning.
After an analyst upgrade, never chase a stock. If it gets away from you, let it go, it wasn't meant to be. Always go for a 50% retracement. Here is how I bought the stock using non-advanced tools everyone has at their disposal. I hate it when traders want to show off who has the biggest tool. Put it in your pants and zip it up. I'll never show you level 2 trading screens or anything else. This is a straightforward Scottrade account (not elite) with a StockCharts.com chart.
Remember, the institutional trader Oppenheimer is your mortal enemy. Of course they are going to upgrade DRYS AFTER they blow their wad on it. They want you to buy it to push up the value of the shares they already own.
Ultimately what all institutional traders want is to draw us guerrilla fighters out from behind our hidden locations and into the lush green valley over the next few months. Then, at some secret time in the future, give the sell order and kill us all.
The first order of business is to establish the 50% retracement level.
So $6.18 would be a perfect entry but remember, nothing is perfect. You want to enter as close to $6.18 as possible but don't be anal about it. $6.30 to $6.18 is fine. How stupid you are if you let the stock get away from you just because you wanted it to drop ten cents. The 50% retracement just gives you an idea of what you want to shoot at.
Now, we watch and wait.
The white lines are a 3 and 5 period simple moving average. The chart is a 10 minute chart. So a 3 period moving average is 3, 10 minute periods or 30 minutes. The 5 period moving average is 5, 10 minute periods or 50 minutes. When the 3 period moving average crosses above the 5 period moving average it's a buy. Conversely, when the 3 period moving average crosses below the 5 period moving average it's a sell.
At market open you can see that both moving averages were falling with a wide space between the two and no chance of crossing over. This means you wait.
At $6.27 I bought DRYS and here's why.
First, notice the rounding out pattern forming on the chart. Second, notice the volume falling off into the downward move. This means that sellers are drying up. Third, notice the 3 period moving average rounding out and getting close to the 5 period moving average. Fourth, notice the high/low bars have held at $6.27 two periods or the last 20 minutes. Finally, all of this is happening close enough to the 50% retracement level.
UPDATE: I WALKED AWAY WITH A 30% GAIN IN THIS STOCK ABOUT A WEEK BEFORE THEY HAD A 500 MILLION SHARE OFFERING WHICH SENT DRYS ALL THE WAY BACK DOWN. LUCK? I DON'T THINK SO. THE VIDEO BELOW IS OF THE STOCK SCREENER I USED TO FIND DRYS AND BEFORE EVEN ENTERING THE TRADE I SET MY TARGET PRICE AT 10% ABOVE MY COST BASIS.
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Guerilla Trader Quote
“All Warfare is about Deception. Hence, when able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces; we must seem inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near.... If your opponent is choleric temper, seek to IRRITATE him. Pretend to be Weak, That he may grow ARROGANT.”
by Sun Tzu
“All Warfare is about Deception. Hence, when able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces; we must seem inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near.... If your opponent is choleric temper, seek to IRRITATE him. Pretend to be Weak, That he may grow ARROGANT.”
by Sun Tzu
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