Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen Speech in Rhode Island

Janet Yellen gave a speech about the U.S. economy from Providence, Rhode Island. In my opinion, this was the most important part of her speech as it relates to the stock market: Because of the substantial lags in the effects of monetary policy on the economy, we must make policy in a forward-looking manner. Delaying […]

CPI Shows Core Inflation Inching Closer to Feds 2% Goal

The headline number for the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) is up only 0.1 percent in April but the core is strengthening nicely. Excluding food and energy, core prices rose 0.3 percent. This is the highest since January 2013. The year over year rate for the core is plus 1.8 percent which is getting closer […]

House Issues Subpoena To Federal Reserve In 2012 Leak Probe

bernanke

Rep. Jeb Hensarling, the Texas Republican who heads the House Financial Services Committee, is compelling the Federal Reserve to provide files related to a possible leak of market-moving interest-rate info to a financial newsletter in 2012. The case came from an article published by The Wall Street Journal on September 28, 2012 that reported in […]

Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey May Be Stabilizing

Philadelphia Fed Survey

The Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey came in at 6.7 in May. Is this finally the end of the scary plunge that began in November 2014 with massive layoffs across the energy sector from the rising U.S. dollar? It does appear the Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey is stabilizing from both a fundamental and technical […]

Existing Home Sales Fall But Stays Above 4.8M

Existing Home Sales

Existing home sales for April came in below consensus estimates. The consensus was estimate was 5.10 M to 5.32 M. The actual number for April was 5.04 M. The existing home sales chart looks like a classic consolidation pattern after the big move up nearly a year ago in June 2014. I think the key […]

Jobless Claims Breaks Above 267K

The important 267K level that jobless claims has held below for the last 3 weeks was unfortunately broken above in the latest jobless claims number. Still, claims levels remain low and are signaling a significant lack of layoffs in the labor market. New claims rose in the May 16 week by 10,000 to 274,000. This […]

FOMC Minutes Analysis May 20 2015

FOMC Minutes Word Cloud

The stock market hardly even reacted to the FOMC minutes release on May 20, 2015 which means the Federal Reserve did exactly what traders expected. The FOMC minutes had details of the committee’s discussion about how much of the slowdown resulted from causes which will probably fade. Those comprised serious winter weather, a labor dispute […]

Hotelling’s Theory

hotelling theory 1

Hotelling’s theory is an important concept in economics. It is a hotly debated theory with good arguments both for and against the theory. Nevertheless, stock traders and investors should have some awareness of Hotelling’s theory, especially as it relates to the price of oil. Some investors will make the decision to stay out of a […]

Housing Starts Do the Seasonal Rip Higher

Housing Starts

Housing starts blew the doors of the consensus range today. Housing starts for April 2015 came in at 1.135 million. The consensus range was 0.970 million to 1.120 million. The official spring housing surge is upon us. Housing starts soared +20.2% in April. This is one of the strongest moves higher on record! This is […]

International Trade Theory and Stock Trading

World Trade and GDP

International trade theory and the increase in global trade has had a profound impact on stock trading to say the least. In this article, I will briefly discuss what international trade theory is and how to use it to profit in the stock market. What You Will Learn What is comparative advantage Mathematics behind comparative […]

Stock Market Prediction For Week of May 18 2015

isis

All the major indices continue to swing sideways in trendless sideways action. Folks, the rating this week should probably be sidelines but the stock market prediction algorithm gives Bulls a big advantage. Therefore my rating for trading next week is that the Bulls have a slight advantage over Bears. Stock Market Prediction May 2015 Sell […]