Month: May 2015

GDP Revision Swings Negative Due To Port Strike


First quarter GDP was revised down to -0.7 percent from the initial +0.2 percent estimate. Is it time to panic? Not really. The source data shows that the port strike had a bigger negative impact on the economy than originally thought. Nevertheless, this is the first contraction in GDP since the first quarter of 2014 Read More »

Jobless Claims Signal Great Strength In the Labor Market


Initial jobless claims rose 7,000 in the May 23 week to 282,000. This is still very low. Continuing claims, up 11,000 in trailing data for the May 16 week, are also very low at 2.222 million. Initial jobless claims are signaling great strength in the labor market, and that layoffs are at record lows. I Read More »

PBS PF Chart

Entertainment Media Stocks On Improving Consumer



Durable Goods Orders

Market Sells Off On Durable Goods Orders Report


Markets sold off big on May 26, 2015 after the Durable Goods Orders report was released. The consensus range was -3.0% to 1.8%. The actual number was -0.5%. Business investment is slowly picking up after one of its worst stretches since the recession, a sign the U.S. economy may be poised for a turnaround following Read More »

IHF Monthly Chart

iShares Healthcare ETF Massive Buying and Pullback For Entry



Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen Speech in Rhode Island


Janet Yellen gave a speech about the U.S. economy from Providence, Rhode Island. In my opinion, this was the most important part of her speech as it relates to the stock market: Because of the substantial lags in the effects of monetary policy on the economy, we must make policy in a forward-looking manner. Delaying Read More »

CPI Shows Core Inflation Inching Closer to Feds 2% Goal


The headline number for the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) is up only 0.1 percent in April but the core is strengthening nicely. Excluding food and energy, core prices rose 0.3 percent. This is the highest since January 2013. The year over year rate for the core is plus 1.8 percent which is getting closer Read More »

Philadelphia Fed Survey

Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey May Be Stabilizing


The Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey came in at 6.7 in May. Is this finally the end of the scary plunge that began in November 2014 with massive layoffs across the energy sector from the rising U.S. dollar? It does appear the Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey is stabilizing from both a fundamental and technical Read More »

Existing Home Sales

Existing Home Sales Fall But Stays Above 4.8M


Existing home sales for April came in below consensus estimates. The consensus was estimate was 5.10 M to 5.32 M. The actual number for April was 5.04 M. The existing home sales chart looks like a classic consolidation pattern after the big move up nearly a year ago in June 2014. I think the key Read More »

Jobless Claims Breaks Above 267K


The important 267K level that jobless claims has held below for the last 3 weeks was unfortunately broken above in the latest jobless claims number. Still, claims levels remain low and are signaling a significant lack of layoffs in the labor market. New claims rose in the May 16 week by 10,000 to 274,000. This Read More »