Month: June 2015


Orion Engineered Carbons Stock Testing Trend Support



Consumer sentiment

Consumer Sentiment Explodes To Highest Reading Since 1991!


The Consumer Sentiment report was crazy-awesome folks. The expectations component hit 97.8 for a 12-year high and a 13.6 point surge from May. The 13.6 gain is the biggest monthly gain since March 1991! Browser not compatible. One thing is clear, the consumer is upbeat and is earning more and spending more. This supports the Read More »

Personal Income and Outlays

Consumer Spending Rises the Most in 6 Years!


The U.S. consumer came on strong in May with a 0.9% surge in personal outlays. Spending was the heaviest in autos and retail goods. The surge in spending was supported by a 0.5% rise in personal income. Browser not compatible. This is the largest increase in consumer spending in almost six years! This supports the Read More »

housing etf chart

Wall Street Prognosis On Housing Marketplace


The housing market has roared back to life after the great downturn through the subprime mortgage crisis eight years ago. Home prices have risen in the first half of the year. Morgan Stanley estimates increases of between 4.1% and 6.8%. Starts and permits are just marginally higher for the quarter compared to the same period Read More »

durable goods orders chart

Durable Goods Orders Fall Again as Manufacturing Struggles


Total orders fell -1.8 percent in May. April was revised to -1.5 from an initial -0.5 percent. This negative report for manufacturing supports the thesis that the Philly Fed Business Outlook survey was an outlier. On the slightly positive side, capital goods (excluding aircraft) rose 0.4 percent in May vs a 0.3 percent slip in Read More »

Existing Home Sales

Existing Home Sales Rise At Highest Pace Since 2009


Existing home sales rose 5.1 percent in May to a 5.35 million annual rate. The year over year, existing home sales are up 9.2 percent. Prices are rising too, up 7.9 percent year over year. An updated chart of existing home sales shows a bullish breakout: The GDPNow forecast for Q2 Read More »

Philadelphia Fed Survey

Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey Surges Higher!


Manufacturing has surged in the June Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey report. The Philly Fed index has surged higher to hit 15.2 for the strongest reading since December. New orders came in at 15.2 which was the highest reading since November. The Philly Fed index survey was so good that some are defining it as Read More »

Jobless Claims Below 300K For 15 Straight Weeks


Jobless claims in the June 13 week fell 12,000 to 267,000. This was the 15th straight week that claims have come in below 300,000, a level historically associated with a firming labor market. Below is an updated infographic. Move your mouse over the line to see the underlying number: As stock traders and investors, we Read More »

Quick FOMC Announcement Analysis June 17 2015


Here is a quick break down of the FOMC announcement on June 17, 2015. The FOMC can be summarized as: Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April suggests that economic activity has been expanding moderately after having changed little during the first quarter… On balance, a range of labor market indicators Read More »

Housing Starts

Housing Starts Falls But Building Permits Surge the Most Since 2007


Housing starts came in at a 1.036 million rate in May which is down 11.1 percent from the April rate. April has been revised higher to 1.165 million which is a 22.1 percent gain from March. Building permits came in 1.275 million, following a 9.8 percent gain in April. This is an 11.8% gain to Read More »

Industrial Production

Industrial Production Negative Surprise


The consensus range for industrial production was 0.1% to 0.5%. The actual number was -0.2%. May is the fourth negative reading in the last six months with the other readings at no change. The chart looks like it is basing and going sideways just off the -0.5% level. It may be coiling sideways ahead of Read More »

GDP Forecast

GDPNow Forecast Raised To +1.9%


The GDPNow forecast for Q2 2015 was raised to +1.9% today following the retail trade and inventories report. Folks this is exactly what I said would happen last month on the Weekly Saturday Show on YouTube. My reasoning was that Q4 and Q1 GDP has marked the cycle low for GDP the last 4 years. Read More »