Month: October 2015

US GDP Q3 2015 Chart

Q3 GDP Not Bad, But Not Good Either


Domestic spending helped hold up GDP growth in the third quarter which came in at +1.5%. Final sales came in at 3% in the quarter. Both residential and nonresidential investment slowed in the third quarter with both net exports and inventories pulling down GDP. Personal consumption expenditures slowed 4 tenths but are still up +3.2%. Read More »

GDPNow Q3 Forecast

International Trade In Goods Boosts Q3 GDP Estimates


The advance September US International Trade In Goods report was surprisingly strong, following weeks of mixed messages in other (non-housing) US data out for the month. The trade deficit reading was nearly 10% smaller than expected, as imports contracted (mostly energy, some goods) and exports rose 2.4%, spread across a broad spectrum of sectors. One Read More »

Durable Goods Orders September 2015

Durable Goods Orders Contracts More Than Expected


There was some softness in the preliminary September durable goods report, while the August numbers were revised lower again to -3 percent. The headline decline of -1.2 percent was largely a result of a -36 percent drop in civilian aircraft bookings, which outweighed a 12 percent rebound in the defense category. Core shipments were the Read More »

New Home Sales

New Home Sales Fall In September


Sales of new homes fell in September, with the annualized rate dropping to 468K from August’s downward revised 529K rate. The data widely missed expectations and provided a strong contrast to the September existing home sales number, which came very close to the eight-year, post-crisis high seen in the August report. The rise in home Read More »


Existing Home Sales Come In Strong in September


The consensus range for existing home sales was 5.25M to 5.50M. The actual number was 5.55M, giving the report the status of positive surprise to the upside. The month’s annual sales rate, at 5.55M, is the second best reading of the recovery. The year-on-year percentage gain, at plus 8.8 percent, is back where it was Read More »

Housing Starts

Housing Starts Positive Surprise In September


The consensus range for housing starts was 1.100M to 1.205M. The actual number was 1.206M to just squeak out a positive surprise to the upside. Housing starts rose 6.5%. The multi-family component rocketed higher by 18.3% to 466K. Single family starts were only up 0.3% to 740K. Once again it’s a situation of growing demand Read More »


NYSE Margin Debt Plunged Below Signal Line


The NYSE margin debt levels were just released. The number for September 2015 came in at $453,896 which is below the 10 month moving average signal line of $476,836. This is the biggest break below the signal line since the pullback in mid 2011. What caused the margin debt to plunge? The price of oil. Read More »


Industrial Production Continues To Contract


Industrial production fell -0.2% in September showing a continued contraction of the U.S. economy. The manufacturing component fell -0.1% for a second straight decline and the fourth decline in five months. The ok news is that industrial production was revised upward for August, from an initial decline of -0.4% to -0.1%. But the improvement was Read More »

Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey

Philly Fed Business Survey Shows Contraction Spreading


The Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey for October surprised to the downside. The consensus range was -4.0 to 3.0. The actual number was -4.5. The Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey suggests that the contraction in the U.S. economy from weak exports is spreading outward and now seeping into the Mid-Atlantic manufacturing sector. This is the Read More »

Retail Sales September 2015

Retail Sales For September 2015


The consensus range for retail sales was -0.1% to 0.8%. The actual number was 0.1%. Gasoline sales dropped -3.2% which pulled down the headline number. Excluding gasoline sales, the headline number would have been +0.4%. Solid gains were in: motor vehicles (+1.7%), restaurants (+0.9%), and clothing (+0.9%). Solid drops were in: food & beverage (-0.3%), Read More »