GDP for Q1 was revised upward to 1.4% on an increase in consumer spending. The US economy enters its ninth year of economic growth in July.
The first GDP estimate for Q1 was originally reported at 0.7%. So Q1 GDP grew at twice the rate as originally thought. That’s great. Obviously 1.4% growth is not great but to have GDP growth at twice the rate than originally thought is awesome.
The idea that the Federal Reserve has hiked rates too far, too fast, and thus was crashing GDP is pushed a little ways off with this Q1 GDP upward revision. Clearly economic growth is not slowing as rapidly as everyone originally thought.
Some economists suspect the Q1 GDP number still underestimates the true rate of increase in the US. Regardless of the upward revision to GDP, President Trump’s stated goal of quickly boosting annual GDP to 3% remains a struggle.
Analysts estimate that the U.S. market will grow at a 3% rate in the April-to-June interval, although the downturn in equipment orders and shipments reported earlier this week increases the danger that industry investment will supply less of a boost than expected.
A sustained average economic growth rate of 3% hasn’t been achieved in the US since the 1990s. The U.S. economy has grown an average of 2% since 2000.
Initial indications that GDP has accelerated in the next quarter are unlikely in the face of recent data on retail sales and manufacturing production.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA fell -0.78%, the S&P 500 fell -0.86%, and the Nasdaq plunged -1.44%.
Without a significant stimulus to drive costs higher, equities have to reset and that is what they are doing today.
Investors also may be concerned about the increase in interest rates globally, as hawkish comments from central banks indicated the beginning of the end of ultra-loose financial policy.
If you were to select one specific point influencing trading at this time, it would be that people think large-cap technology stocks are overvalued at this time.
Stock Market Technical Analysis June 29 2017
The stock market is down on June 29, 2017, but it’s not that bad folks. Here’s why.