Since the 1950s, a stock market correction of -13% is the average draw-down that happens each year. In an article on ETF (link above), Ben Carlson of Ritholtz Wealth Management warns that traders and investors should not get too complacent.
Stock Market Correction
Ben Carlson says that even in years when the S&P 500 ends the year higher than when it began, usually there is a double-digit correction sometime during that year.
MarketWatch maintains a 10 year chart of the VIX at http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/vix/chartsopens in a new window. You can visually see what Ben Carlson is talking about by way of the fewer VIX spikes on the monthly chart.
The big takeaway is don’t get too complacent about the market folks. If you are new to trading since 2009, you haven’t experienced the corrections that are normal. That’s because the Fed has actively purchased some $4.5 trillion worth of assets across various markets. As the Fed advances their QT (Quantitative Tightening) agenda, normal volatility will return to markets. You can’t time when we will move from the current lower volatility market into a more normal higher volatility market.