Category: Economics

A supply and demand chart showing equilibrium at the center axis of where supply and demand cross.

The Aggregate Supply-Aggregate Demand Model


Looking at the aggregate supply (AS), aggregate demand (AD) model, we can see where the US economy is currently at in the economic cycle. It is critical that traders and investors understand where we are at in the business cycle so as to be in on the right side of the trade. Timing Bull/Bear cycles […]

A Macroeconomic Analysis of ObamaCare


ObamaCare has created massive shortages within the healthcare sector. In cities, it is common to wait many hours before being seen as hospitals have a shortage of beds. Doctors have stopped taking new patients as they are overwhelmed by the numbers of people coming to see them. Let’s examine what happened from a macroeconomics perspective. […]

Illegal Immigration and Job Wage Stagnation In the US


Illegal immigration negatively impacts the hourly wage of US citizens. Illegal immigrants are pouring across the Mexico border, and we have no way of counting them but what we can do is track legal immigration from Mexico then double the number for a fuzzy-math estimate. With legal immigration and an impenetrable border, economists working for […]

A FRED chart of labor costs (red) versus corporate profits (blue). A clear pattern emerges from the chart. Profits rise after a recession as labor costs fall. When the labor market reaches capacity, profits fall as labor costs rise. When labor costs rise, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to tame inflation which causes the next recession.

Rising Wages Are What Will Cause The Next Recession


We all love rising wages, but it is rising wages that will cause the next recession and Bear market. Below is a chart of labor costs (red) versus corporate profits (blue). A clear pattern emerges from the chart above. Profits rise after a recession as labor costs fall. When the labor market reaches capacity, profits […]

Chart showing supply and demand lines crossing.

Macroeconomics of the OPEC Cartel


All the recent talk of an OPEC deal to push up the price of oil is nonsense. Here is a hypothetical supply and demand chart of oil. In this hypothetical example, equilibrium is set where the supply and demand curves cross at a price of $40 a barrel at 75 MMbpd. Shifting the Supply Curve […]

With So Much Debt In the US Economy, Is It Even Possible To Grow Faster?


The US national debt just broke above $19.5 trillion. Both Democrats and Republicans are to blame, but it is important to note that President Obama and Democrats increased the national debt more than all President’s before combined. George Bush exploded the national debt by $3 trillion in response to an imploding economy and 911. Obama […]

Mexico Devalues Peso To Dominate Auto Production In North America


Mexico is devaluing its currency to gain a huge advantage in international trade. Democrats and the Obama Administration have done nothing to stop it. Like most economists, I am for free trade; however, free trade today is not Adam Smith or David Ricardo envisioned hundreds of years ago. The classical concept of free trade works […]

Government Spending and the Crowding Out Effect


The velocity of money has hit the lowest level ever recorded as I wrote about here. I believe the crowding out effect is at least partially to blame for the slowdown in the velocity of money. President Obama has run the national debt up to nearly $20 trillion, more than all President’s before him combined. […]

An info graphic that shows the different leading economic reports Lance Jepsen tracks as they relate to the GDP. GDP has the reports ECRI Leading Index, stock market, and Yield Curve Spread. The C component of the GDP formula has Consumer Confidence, Retail Sales, and Home Sales. The I component of GDP formula has ISM Manufacturing Index. The G component of GDP formula has Treasury Report. The X minus M component of GDP formula has trade report.

Powerful Economics Case For Trumponomics


One of the reasons I began supporting Donald Trump and declared GuerillaStockTrading as an official supporter of the Trump candidacy had to do with economics and ultimately the stock market. The majority of people who are against Trump are not very smart when it comes to understanding international trade and macroeconomics. Donald Trump has nothing […]

Yield Curve

Quantitative Easing, Inflation, and the Yield Curve


Back in October of 2010, I did a video on YouTube called Bonds and Quantitative Easing For Dummies. It has over 69K views. I still get compliments on this video today. The battle line drawn in the sand by the Federal Reserve has been to hold a normalized yield curve. If you look at the […]