Category: US Economy

US Manufacturing Goes Into a Recession in Q2 2019


The U.S. manufacturing sector went into a recession in Q2 2019, something you are not hearing a lot about in the U.S. mainstream media, but is being talked about overseas. Let’s be real about this folks. Even freight shipping insiders are perplexed by the slowdown in the U.S. economy when consumer spending is still so […]

Cass Freight Index Weakest Pace Since 2008


The Cass Freight Index is having its weakest year since 2008 and the Great Recession. This is an abnormal decline in shipment activity to say the least! The year-to-date change is -5.4% below the seasonal average trend which is the weakest pace since 2008 when the economy was falling into a recession. The difference between […]

Jobs Rose by 224,000 Taking 50 Basis Rate Cut Off Table


Nonfarm payrolls rose by 224,000 jobs in June, the most in five months, according to Labor Department data. The 50 basis point rate cut is completely off the table now. This realization has caused overnight futures to be down going into market open on Friday, July 5, 2019. Average hourly earnings rose by 0.2% in […]

US Trade Gap Surges To Decade High


The U. S. trade gap surged to $621 billion in 2018. This is the highest number in a decade. Corporate globalist media outlets like the Washington Post, New York Times, NPR, and the BBC are spinning the trade gap as President Trump’s failure. In reality, it’s just the opposite. What this surging trade gap shows […]

Baltic Dry Index chart

China Cold War 2.0 Rages On Democracy Vs Communism


I’m out of this market folks because I feel that today confirmed my darkest suspicions about the trade war with China. If you really study up on the economics of China being accepted into the WTO in 2001 and what happened to the U.S. economy since, it’s clear that no deal will ever be reached […]

Give up SOVEREIGNTY to EU Says Germany’s Merkel


German Chancellor Angela Merkel is on her way out and so now she’s apparently saying the way we she really feels about nationalism. Merkel said she won’t seek re-election in 2021 but it is clear she is attempting to push the globalist agenda to its disturbing conclusion before she stands down. Angela Merkel suggested today […]

Trump Shumer Pelosi

Government Shutdown Odds SURGE Higher On December 11 2018


The odds of a government shutdown exploded higher today after Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Shumer met with President Trump today in the White House. I think there’s now a 75% chance of a government shutdown late next week. President Trump wants $5 billion in funding for a wall, while the Democrats are offering $1.3 billion […]

US and China currencies

Huawei Arrest and the China Trade War


Huawei is the biggest global supplier of network gear for phone and internet companies and has become the target of deepening U.S. security concerns over its ties to the Chinese government. The U.S. has driven European countries and other allies to limit use of its technology, warning they could be opening themselves up to surveillance […]

Treasury bonds are taking money away from the corporate bond market. This is known as the crowing out effect.

Trader Alert! Inverted Yield Curve


I’ve been telling readers of the GuerillaStockTrading blog and listeners of the weekly Saturday Stock Market Prediction Show to not worry about a Bear market until the yield curve inverts. I’ve been using the yield curve as a tool for trading for many years. In 2013, I published this video that went viral on YouTube […]

Chart of UNG

Avoid Natural Gas Stocks As Seasonality Peaks


Natural gas stocks have peaked this seasonal cycle and are on the way down. Shale drilling has made the U.S. one of the world’s lowest-cost sources of natural gas on the planet. Companies are investing billions to exploit gas as either an exportable product or even as a feedstock for manufacturing but that doesn’t mean […]