Category: US Economy

Trump Shumer Pelosi

Government Shutdown Odds SURGE Higher On December 11 2018


The odds of a government shutdown exploded higher today after Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Shumer met with President Trump today in the White House. I think there’s now a 75% chance of a government shutdown late next week. President Trump wants $5 billion in funding for a wall, while the Democrats are offering $1.3 billion […]

US and China currencies

Huawei Arrest and the China Trade War


Huawei is the biggest global supplier of network gear for phone and internet companies and has become the target of deepening U.S. security concerns over its ties to the Chinese government. The U.S. has driven European countries and other allies to limit use of its technology, warning they could be opening themselves up to surveillance […]

Treasury bonds are taking money away from the corporate bond market. This is known as the crowing out effect.

Trader Alert! Inverted Yield Curve


I’ve been telling readers of the GuerillaStockTrading blog and listeners of the weekly Saturday Stock Market Prediction Show to not worry about a Bear market until the yield curve inverts. I’ve been using the yield curve as a tool for trading for many years. In 2013, I published this video that went viral on YouTube […]

Chart of UNG

Avoid Natural Gas Stocks As Seasonality Peaks


Natural gas stocks have peaked this seasonal cycle and are on the way down. Shale drilling has made the U.S. one of the world’s lowest-cost sources of natural gas on the planet. Companies are investing billions to exploit gas as either an exportable product or even as a feedstock for manufacturing but that doesn’t mean […]

Bond yields versus the performance of the stock market in 2018. When bond yields surge higher, the stock market plunges lower.

Bond Yield Supply Holds Stock Market Hostage


Think interest rates only impact fixed income investors? Think again. It is stock market investors who are feeling the biggest impact. The bond yield across the yield curve is set to move higher but not for the right reasons. Rising bond yields at the first part of an economic cycle isn’t necessarily bad as long […]

Oil price chart.

Oil Prices and What Traders Should Know


Oil markets continued to fall Friday as persistent concerns about a glut in global supply were affected by weaker economic conditions. Saudi Arabia, which doesn’t want to take all the pain by itself, may struggle to convince producers like Russia and Iraq to join in making cuts. The Saudis must navigate a route between the […]

Rumors Circulating Fed May Pause Rate Hikes In Spring 2019


I’m hearing rumors that the Federal Reserve may announce as pause of rate hikes in spring of 2019. Word is the rumors are coming from The MNI story is being circulated by forex websites like this one. Reuters also picked up the story from MNI giving a little more credibility to it. My best […]

Investment grade yield spread chart

Short Sellers Target High Yield Corporate Bond Markets


Short sellers are targeting high yield corporate bonds as HYG continues its plunge. Institutional investors and hedge funds are betting against U.S. corporate credit as insurance against a recession that might be coming. Vice President Pence basically said over the weekend that the US will more than double its tariffs from 10% to 25% against […]

Investment grade yield spread widening

Junk Bond Credit Crunch Ripples Across Wall Street


U.S. companies owe more money than ever, and the quality of their loans and bonds has deteriorated. Since October 2018, rising interest rates and slowing growth are negatively impacting markets suggesting this could be the source of the next market crash. I recommend getting out of any bond funds that you are currently holding in […]

Market Trend Alert: VIX Tops In Mid-October Seasonality


Do not make seasonality timing more difficult that it has to be. If there’s one seasonality chart you should use for market timing, it would be the VIX seasonality chart as published by our trading buddies over at EquityClock. Everything that is happening in the market has to do with seasonality and we are looking […]