Category: US Economy

Bond yields versus the performance of the stock market in 2018. When bond yields surge higher, the stock market plunges lower.

Bond Yield Supply Holds Stock Market Hostage


Think interest rates only impact fixed income investors? Think again. It is stock market investors who are feeling the biggest impact. The bond yield across the yield curve is set to move higher but not for the right reasons. Rising bond yields at the first part of an economic cycle isn’t necessarily bad as long […]

Oil price chart.

Oil Prices and What Traders Should Know


Oil markets continued to fall Friday as persistent concerns about a glut in global supply were affected by weaker economic conditions. Saudi Arabia, which doesn’t want to take all the pain by itself, may struggle to convince producers like Russia and Iraq to join in making cuts. The Saudis must navigate a route between the […]

Rumors Circulating Fed May Pause Rate Hikes In Spring 2019


I’m hearing rumors that the Federal Reserve may announce as pause of rate hikes in spring of 2019. Word is the rumors are coming from The MNI story is being circulated by forex websites like this one. Reuters also picked up the story from MNI giving a little more credibility to it. My best […]

Investment grade yield spread chart

Short Sellers Target High Yield Corporate Bond Markets


Short sellers are targeting high yield corporate bonds as HYG continues its plunge. Institutional investors and hedge funds are betting against U.S. corporate credit as insurance against a recession that might be coming. Vice President Pence basically said over the weekend that the US will more than double its tariffs from 10% to 25% against […]

Investment grade yield spread widening

Junk Bond Credit Crunch Ripples Across Wall Street


U.S. companies owe more money than ever, and the quality of their loans and bonds has deteriorated. Since October 2018, rising interest rates and slowing growth are negatively impacting markets suggesting this could be the source of the next market crash. I recommend getting out of any bond funds that you are currently holding in […]

Market Trend Alert: VIX Tops In Mid-October Seasonality


Do not make seasonality timing more difficult that it has to be. If there’s one seasonality chart you should use for market timing, it would be the VIX seasonality chart as published by our trading buddies over at EquityClock. Everything that is happening in the market has to do with seasonality and we are looking […]

Has the Federal Reserve Really Gone Crazy?


Trump told a reporter, “I think the Fed is uh … making a mistake. They’re so tight. I think the Fed has gone crazy.” I know left-leaning ego-maniacs like CNBC’s Steve Liesman are rushing to the defense of the Federal Reserve and are accusing the President of attacking the credibility of the Fed. But the […]

Trend Alert: Massive China Sabotage Of U.S. Computers Revealed


China is our friend, most favored nation, they said. In what could end up being the worse security breach in human history, China has infiltrated 90 percent of the world’s PCs. Any U.S. corporation that used offshoring and outsource for manufacturing in China likely has a hardware back door in it. China makes a whopping […]

FOMC Word Cloud

Three Reasons Why Wednesday’s FOMC Rate Hike Is a Mistake


The market is pricing in a 100% probability of a quarter point rate hike on Wednesday by the Federal Reserve. This will be the third quarter point rate hike this year. The Fed has already hiked rates too fast IMO. Let’s look at the fundamental economic data and three reasons why the Fed should immediately […]

Market Trend Alert: Peak US Auto Sales


Market trend alert: peak US auto sales. I’m predicting that we have hit peak US auto sales for this economic cycle unless the Fed immediately stops hiking rates. For years auto sales have been rising under a low interest rate environment. Instead of auto sales being in a consolidation pattern, I believe it’s a major […]