Category: US Economy

Investment grade yield spread chart

Short Sellers Target High Yield Corporate Bond Markets


Short sellers are targeting high yield corporate bonds as HYG continues its plunge. Institutional investors and hedge funds are betting against U.S. corporate credit as insurance against a recession that might be coming. Vice President Pence basically said over the weekend that the US will more than double its tariffs from 10% to 25% against […]

Investment grade yield spread widening

Junk Bond Credit Crunch Ripples Across Wall Street


U.S. companies owe more money than ever, and the quality of their loans and bonds has deteriorated. Since October 2018, rising interest rates and slowing growth are negatively impacting markets suggesting this could be the source of the next market crash. I recommend getting out of any bond funds that you are currently holding in […]

Market Trend Alert: VIX Tops In Mid-October Seasonality


Do not make seasonality timing more difficult that it has to be. If there’s one seasonality chart you should use for market timing, it would be the VIX seasonality chart as published by our trading buddies over at EquityClock. Everything that is happening in the market has to do with seasonality and we are looking […]

Has the Federal Reserve Really Gone Crazy?


Trump told a reporter, “I think the Fed is uh … making a mistake. They’re so tight. I think the Fed has gone crazy.” I know left-leaning ego-maniacs like CNBC’s Steve Liesman are rushing to the defense of the Federal Reserve and are accusing the President of attacking the credibility of the Fed. But the […]

Trend Alert: Massive China Sabotage Of U.S. Computers Revealed


China is our friend, most favored nation, they said. In what could end up being the worse security breach in human history, China has infiltrated 90 percent of the world’s PCs. Any U.S. corporation that used offshoring and outsource for manufacturing in China likely has a hardware back door in it. China makes a whopping […]

FOMC Word Cloud

Three Reasons Why Wednesday’s FOMC Rate Hike Is a Mistake


The market is pricing in a 100% probability of a quarter point rate hike on Wednesday by the Federal Reserve. This will be the third quarter point rate hike this year. The Fed has already hiked rates too fast IMO. Let’s look at the fundamental economic data and three reasons why the Fed should immediately […]

Market Trend Alert: Peak US Auto Sales


Market trend alert: peak US auto sales. I’m predicting that we have hit peak US auto sales for this economic cycle unless the Fed immediately stops hiking rates. For years auto sales have been rising under a low interest rate environment. Instead of auto sales being in a consolidation pattern, I believe it’s a major […]

New home sales completed seasonally falls in July 2018.

Tracking Economic Stress From Rising Rates


We are tracking signs of economic stress caused by rising interest rates and if the increasing signs of stress are systemic. This biggest point of increasing economic stress to the economy from rising rates is in the financing of big ticket items like houses. The high price of homes is restricting activity, keeping buyers on […]

US Total Public Debt chart

Everyone Is So Happy Economy Is So Great… NOT!


Everyone is talking about how strong the US economy is but I call bullsh*t. We are running a nearly $100 billion deficit each month in the US. That comes out to $1.2 trillion a year and its rising fast because of new spending and because interest rates are going up. In fact, the interest payment […]

UUP chart which tracks the US dollar. UUP has been rising since February 2018.

President Trump Jumps Into The Currency Wars


President Trump launched himself into the ongoing currency wars today, accusing China of manipulating its currency and the Europeans of manipulating the euro. The problem with Trump’s thinking is that his own economic policies and the waging of economic warfare against the largest economies in the world are contributing to a strong US dollar. Currencies […]