Market trend alert: peak US auto sales. I’m predicting that we have hit peak US auto sales for this economic cycle unless the Fed immediately stops hiking rates.
For years auto sales have been rising under a low interest rate environment.
Instead of auto sales being in a consolidation pattern, I believe it’s a major topping pattern called a Triple Top and here is why. Auto loan deliquency rates are rising. So are credit card delinquency rates.
Explaining all these charts together in a holistic economic view shows that rising interest rates are causing auto sales to fall because rental rate increases, credit card interest rate increases, and the rising cost of health care have pushed consumers to the brink of bankruptcy. We know this is true because both auto loan and credit card delinquency rates are rising fast. In fact, anything that is leased in accounts receivable is seeing a big move higher in delinquencies.
Meanwhile rising rental rates have completely zapped consumers wage increases:
In the this week’s Saturday night show, I’ll talk about how I personally had to sell my car back to Toyota and what I saw on the car lot.
Now that peak auto sales are in, delinquencies will continue to rise rapidly with Federal Reserve rate hikes. Once the consumer goes into “survival” mode and restricts spending, everything collapses as we go into the next Recession.