Fed Speak Jackson Hole Increase Risk of Deflation


Fed Conference Paper for Jackson Hole Economic Symposium shows that Fed sees a growing risk of deflation. The risk of the U.S. experiencing deflation over the next 5 years increases from zero in short term, to about 15%. For Japan, the risk remains around 50%. For the Eurozone, “in the short-run the risk of deflation Read More »


Q2 GDP Revised Up to 3.7%


Q2 GDP was revised up to 3.7%. This was a positive surprise and just above the consensus range of 2.7% to 3.6% growth. Consumer demand was strong with personal consumption expenditures at a 3.1 percent rate led by an 8.2 percent rate for durables, a gain that was tied to vehicle spending. The economy’s acceleration Read More »


Durable Goods Orders Up 2%


The mainstream financial media is hyping the Durable Goods Orders report which came in at 2%. New orders rose 2% in July which beat out the pathetic expectation for a 1.2% gain. Orders for vehicles were up 4% in July, following June’s 0.8% gain. Vehicle shipments are up 3.9% following a 0.9% gain last month. Read More »

Former Treasury Secretary Says Rate Hike Serious Error


The Former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said that the Federal Reserve raising rates in the near future would be a serious error. FT News reports that Mr. Summers said, “A hike now would threaten all three of the Fed’s major objectives, price stability, full employment, and financial stability.” Mr. Summers went on to support Read More »


Yield Curve Flattens on Institutional Trader Selling On TICK


The yield curve has been flattening over the last 3 months at a rate that appears to be beyond just the normal ebb and flow and “heart beat” of the yield curve. Check out what short term yields (3 month) have done for the last 3 months: Short term yields are impacted by the Fed’s Read More »

Existing Home Sales July 2015

Existing Home Sales Honey Badger Don’t Care


The Existing Home Sales report showed existing home sales up a stronger-than-expected 2.0 percent in July to a 5.59 million annual rate. Sales are up 10.3 percent year-on-year, with the median price rising 5.6 percent to $234,000. Check out this strong uptrending chart in existing home sales: The market should get some type of bounce Read More »


Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey Very Weak


The Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey came in at 8.3 for August. That’s a tiny little move up from the 5.7 reading in July and shows a weak business environment. This index has plunged since the beginning of 2015, far below the highs of 2014. The demand for manufactured goods, as measured by the survey’s Read More »


FOMC Minutes Tank Treasury Yields


The FOMC Minutes from the July 28-29 meeting cheat sheet: – Several participants expressed concerns about China – Most voting members say economy is not strong enough yet for a rate liftoff. Most members thought conditions were not yet appropriate for a rate liftoff, but we are “approaching” those conditions – Further progress towards goals Read More »

housing starts

Housing Permits Fall 16 Percent In July


Housing permits fell -16% in July to a 1.119 million annual rate. The decline in housing permits points to less growth than expected for the new home market in the months ahead. The S&P 500 sold off big on the news: CNBC’s Liesman says expiration of a large tax break for new construction in NY Read More »

Q3 GDP Forecast

Q3 GDP Forecast is Falling As Fed Contracts Economy


The Federal Reserve has already started raising rates and contracting the economy by ending QE last year and talking up a rate hike this year. It is important that traders understand that rates are already going up and have been this entire year. In a rising rates environment, the U.S. dollar rises also and that Read More »