Bloomberg had an awesome interview with Tony Dwyer of Canaccord yesterday.
Mr. Dwyer said, “It’s kind of 50-50 right now. Biden’s in the lead but we know not to trust the polls from the last election. We don’t know what the implication of the Supreme Court nominee is going to be. We don’t know if they’re going to have the Senate if the democrats are going to sweep and have both the White House and the Senate. I just don’t think it’s an investable event… History shows that when you have a significant equity market decline in the end of September into October, it usually means according to the Davis Research chart that I use, it usually means that the incumbent loses…
I don’t see a recession. A recession comes when you have a need for money and limited or no access to the money. We have a historic amount of excess liquidity (um, that’s bullsh*t, look at Fred’s M2 Money Supply chart, it’s crashed). We have the worst of the recession in the rear view mirror because we shut down the economy, and we have a synchronized global recovery. Is it perfect and ramping?-no.”
Tony Dwyer, equity strategist for Canaccord Genuity, says he doesn’t see a recession coming for the U.S. He speaks on “Bloomberg Surveillance.”