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S and P 500 intraday action on April 9, 2018, shows market going up for most of the day but then going down the last 1 hour and 30 minutes.

Mueller Sell Off On April 9 2018

The FBI has raided the offices of the President’s long time personal lawyer, Michael Cohen.

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Mueller is investigating a $150,000 payment for a 20 minute video-conference call Trump did for the Ukraine steel billionaire Victor Pinchuk back in September of 2015, at a conference in Kiev.

Mueller also seized records relating to Stormy Daniels in an attempt to find out if Trump or Michael Cohen paid a thug to threaten Stormy Daniels into being quiet about the sexual encounter between Trump and Stormy Daniels.

Traders are calling today’s market sell off the “Mueller sell off”. But there’s some problems with that logic.

S and P 500 intraday action on April 9, 2018, shows market going up for most of the day but then going down the last 1 hour and 30 minutes.

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Problem 1: The New York Times released the story minutes after market close. The market sell off began 1 hour and 30 minutes earlier. If you believe the Mueller sell off theory then you have to also believe that the FBI raid was leaked and that insiders traded on that information and did a front-run on the public. Where’s the SEC investigating insider trading?

Problem 2: The upward move this morning was pathetic in terms of volume. Look at how weak the buy side volume was the entire day. The volume didn’t pick up until the selling started. Notice too that the Accumulation/Distribution indicator shows that the entire day’s worth of buying and accumulation was wiped out in the last hour of trading. This suggests that the market was already extremely weak and was likely going to sell off anyway.

The list of exogenous events that could temporarily push down markets enough to clear out stops are: Syria military action, China trade war, Mueller investigation, and immigration reform.

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Will Q1 2018 earnings season starting this week, will that be enough to counter these down market exogenous events? Hard to say but one thing we can all agree on, increased volatility is not going away anytime soon. Therefore, I like volatility plays and volatility derivatives in this current trading environment.

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