Soon, possibly in the second week of December, the House of Commons will debate and then vote upon a government motion to approve the EU withdrawal agreement and accompanying political statement.
With Labour, the Liberal Democrats, the SNP and maybe even the DUP set to vote against the motion too, the withdrawal arrangement looks set to be torpedoed in the Commons.
A whopping 81 Tory MPs have said they object to the deal. Only seven Tory no votes are required to defeat it.
Theresa May continues to exhaustively insist that the deal is in the national interest and the only way of ensuring Brexit happens.
The Brexit sellout follows the historic model of democratic votes which defy the European Union being ignored over and over again.
Whether or not Theresa May loses a vote of confidence and is eliminated as Prime Minister remains to be seen, but she has been partly successful in one sense, carrying out the orders of globalists in Brussels and betraying her own country.
The deal would de facto keep the United Kingdom in the EU customs union forever and bound by rules determined by the EU over which the United Kingdom would have no say.
Citizens voted to reject the Maastricht Treaty, to reject the Nice Treaty, to reject the EU Constitution, to reject the Lisbon Treaty, to reject the Euro bailout. Each time the votes were ignored, emphasizing the fundamentally anti-democratic nature of the European Union.
May’s position is tenuous after the resignation of four ministers when she delivered the “Brexit bargain” which was completely at odds with what the British people voted for.
It doesn’t look like Theresa May will get her Brexit bargain deal passed.
Theresa May, who was with the remain campaign from the beginning, is merely following the model of earlier European countries, whose citizens have voted against the EU only to see that their votes ignored or overruled.
May and her E.U. counterparts are talking a 585-page withdrawal agreement and a less thorough seven-page declaration on future relations, which negotiators hope will be rubber-stamped in a summit this weekend.
In her resignation letter, Work and Pensions Secretary Esther McVey said May’s deal doesn’t honor the result of this Brexit referendum.
Numerous officials, including Boris Johnson, have walked away from May’s Cabinet as the rocky negotiations dragged on. Johnson has repeatedly accused May of “surrendering” Britain’s sovereignty and turning the UK into a colony of the EU.
Britons voted to leave the E.U. in a June 2016 referendum, a shock result that plunged the world’s fifth-largest economy into a political crisis.
Under both EU law and the UK’s Withdrawal Act, Brexit day is chiseled into stone on March 29, 2019. That’s when the EU Treaties will stop applying to the UK.
In my opinion, the House of Commons will reject May’s deal in which case the EU will try another backdoor method before March 29, 2019.
The most likely outcome is no trade deal between the EU and the UK before March 29, 2019.
If Parliament rejects the deal, Ministers have up to 21 days to make a statement to the Commons on how it proposes to proceed.
The prime minister could make a second attempt at getting the withdrawal deal through the Commons.
More significant could be panic on the markets and that might change minds in parliament.
Alternatively, MPs might suddenly shift in large numbers towards the idea of another referendum to break the Parliamentary impasse and open the possibility of stopping Brexit.
At the moment, about eight Tory and 44 Labour MPs have publicly committed to another referendum.
The Labour leadership has said all options should remain on the table (including another referendum) and the SNP and Lib Dems say there should be one too.
However, a second referendum can only happen if the government brings forward legislation to hold one, and a majority in the Commons supports it.
Theresa May is dead set against another referendum and it’s hard to see an alternative Tory leader picking up that baton.
Theresa May might have neutralized the chance of defeat in the Commons if she had found a Parliamentary consensus for the Brexit she planned to negotiate right at the start of the process. Instead, she faces three fraught weeks and a vote that will define the country’s future for many years.
Right now, it looks like the government’s deal cannot get through the Commons.
We know from the June 2016 referendum that Brexit can impact U.S. markets.
The outcome that is best for U.S. stock markets is a victory by corporate globalists that keeps the UK in the EU.
Should a trade deal not be reached before the March 29, 2019, Brexit deadline, that outcome will be most disruptive to markets because markets do not like uncertainty.