I’m not buying that the pull back in markets is over so I’m taking out some insurance by going long TWM in my personal trading account.
Looking at the chart of low volatility safe stocks versus risk-on high beta stocks really puts today’s price action into perspective IMO:
Today’s up day doesn’t even register on the TSI which continues to fall.
You would think that with markets up so much today that we would have institutional traders buying. Not so according to the TICK. The TICK chart below, while not EOD which is what counts, shows the absence of broad-based institutional traders buying this market:
Proshares UltraShort Russell 2000 Chart
The up move today in markets looks like an opportunity to short the market. The gambit is that markets will experience a dead-cat bounce. TWM looks like a good way to play this market.
The large players volume has been rising over the last couple of weeks and the Twiggs Money Flow confirms traders are shorting the market on rallies.
President Trump Sanctions China and Russia Over North Korea
President Trump made a big mistake today by putting sanctions against China and Russia over North Korea’s nuclear program. Trump’s actions don’t fix the problem, they just expand the conflict to include more countries who are pushed together in alliances against the U.S. You can read more about the new sanctions against China and Russia here.
MarketWatch is REALLY trying to push the stock market down and Google has given them a prominent position in their search engine results to do just that. Check out what the search “stock market news” outputs from Google search:
Whatever happened to the “fake news” filter Google was going to start using?
Google features this fake news story from MarketWatch at the top of their search results:
You can read the entire fake news story about the Hindenburg Omen here.
The Hidenburg Omen is one of the most inaccurate market timing tools to ever exist. Its track record of false signals should delegate it to your trash bin. But even if you ignore this fact and actually want to use the Hidenburg Omen indicator, it’s not giving a signal right now.
This is a fake news story because the Hidenburg Omen is NOT back. The company that owns the WSJ and MarketWatch is trying to manipulate you into thinking we have a Hidenburg Omen signal because they know you’re too stupid to fact check them IMO.
The Hidenburg Omen does not give a signal until the $NYLOW:$NYTOT crosses above the red line while the $NYHGH:$NYTOT is above its red line at the same time. As you can see, we are no where near a Hidenburg Omen signal.
Establish Mainstream Media Push To Destroy Trump
A picture is starting to emerge that the big gambit of the Establishment mainstream media is to push down the stock market and attack President Trump at the same time.
What those who control the content on MarketWatch and the WSJ fail to understand is that they only discredit themselves the more they try and manipulate public perception.
Google Has Hopelessly Lost Its Way
Google rose to power off the backs of hard working entrepreneurs seeking to advertise over the Internet to compete with the rich and powerful that have controlled TV and newspapers for generations.
The Internet has always been, and will always be, a way for ordinary people to communicate ideas with other ordinary people without the interference of rich and powerful corporations acting as the medium of exchange.
Years ago, Google ditched the entrepreneurs that helped it rise to power and instead has cast its lot with the Establishment mainstream media.
Google Has Fully Transitioned Into a News Aggregation Service For the Establishment Mainstream Media
As Google search updates continue to be released every couple of months, one thing is clear, Google continues to make it harder and harder for ordinary people with alternative views to get web traffic from their search engine.
As Stock Traders We Have To See the News Behind the News
The Establishment mainstream media propaganda blasted across the Internet by Google is detrimental to your stock trading efforts. These publications will publish fake news reports like the Hidenberg Omen story above. They have an alternative agenda. Sure they sprinkle in a few stories here and there that may help you make money off a trade but their overall agenda is to destroy Trump and you and I are just collateral damage. Don’t be collateral damage from the false narratives in the mainstream media news. You have to question EVERYTHING and take nothing at face value because your trading profits depend on it.
The stock market correction is likely going to push the S&P 500 to test its long-term rising trendline and support at 232.20. The bearish divergence on the Twiggs Money Flow likely signals that the pull back is not over yet.
A few traders have asked me if now is the time to buy or if they should wait on the sidelines while the market pulls back. We all know that history does not predict future price direction nevertheless, it is useful to know what has and hasn’t happened in the past.
Looking at the last 110 years of stock market price action, the data reveals that waiting for a correction when the market was expensive would have reduced investor returns significantly. The reason is that the term “expensive” is a subjective term. Even if you use a more objective approach of looking at the P/E ratio, the data still shows that staying out of the market for months or even years waiting for a correction is a losing strategy.
Where long-term investors get themselves in trouble is that the correction they are waiting for may occur at a much higher market level than it is at today. Also, sitting on the sidelines for months or even years runs the risk of the investor losing patience and ultimately capitulating to the Bulls and buying back in to the market at a much higher level.
Few investors believe markets efficiently follow a random walk even though it’s a key component of market theory.
Short Term Stock Market Correction
Timing a stock market correction for profits is best done using a short-term swing trading strategy. The idea is that you don’t want to try and catch a falling knife.
Looking at QQQ, the Russell 2000, and the S&P 500, over the last week, you can see that the Russell 2000 and QQQ are leading the S&P 500 lower:
The market is telling us that what happens in the FANG stocks and QQQ will likely dictate market direction on the S&P 500.
With the Twiggs Money Flow breaking below zero for the first time in 2017, I think a retest of the $136 support level is likely.
Right now being in cash is an excellent move. Continue to stalk your favorite stocks for a swing long entry. I wouldn’t be too quick to jump back into this market yet. Consider using stop limit orders as taught in the lesson here.
The main thing to watch out for is the Establishment ‘Defeat Trump’ propaganda in the WSJ, CNBC, CNN, and elsewhere. These media groups are so dishonest that some were even claiming that the stock market went up because Steve Bannon left the White House. That was the propaganda narrative with CNBC claiming that traders on the NYSE floor cheered as proof. First of all, those old left-leaning talking heads in stock exchange clothing walking around looking stupid on the NYSE floor are not representative of the stock market as a whole.
For the first time in our life-times, we have a President who is exposing the Establishment propaganda media in this country. There is a major information war going on right now.
As a trader, you can’t get caught up in the propaganda and the power struggle going on for control of public perception. You have to check yourself every day and make sure you aren’t making trading decisions based on propaganda. If you think the mainstream media is getting into your head too much, cancel your subscriptions like I did with CNBC Pro last week, and the WSJ and Barron’s the month before. Just turn it off because these propaganda machines are not going to help you make more money at stock trading.
Remember folks, markets mostly do random walks, especially during intra-day trading. No left-leaning propaganda media outlet can peer into the minds of millions of traders around the world and claim to know what they are thinking. These propaganda publications believe that perception is reality so if they can control the public’s perception, they can control reality.
The U.S. stock market is overbought, and the weak seasonal period is upon us. May through October marks the weakest 6 months of the year.
I don’t want to beat up on the mainstream media too bad so I’m not going to mention where I read the following bogus analysis:
Overbought markets look for excuses to sell off. Will Trump’s lack of leadership become an excuse for a big selloff in stocks?
The mainstream media is actually talking about a stock market correction as if it is some type of external beast that thinks for itself and makes up excuses. Reality check: you and I are the markets. People that work at institutional trading firms and hedge funds are the markets. Are you looking for an excuse for the market to sell off? I’m not either. Nobody is. We’re just reading the charts, analyzing the fundamentals, weighing external news events, and making our decisions. Nobody is searching under desks and looking everywhere for excuses to sell out of their positions. Especially not some make-believe entity called Overbought Markets.
Did you notice the Establishment propaganda “Trump’s lack of leadership…”? You can criticize the President on a lot of things but one thing you can’t criticize him on is a “lack of leadership”. President Trump is a strong leader with strong ideas and a vision on which he is moving to execute those ideas. Get in his way and “you’re fired”. Trump demonstrated his very strong leadership skills for over a decade on the hit-show The Apprentice. President Obama isn’t even in the same ballpark as President Trump when it comes to having strong leadership skills.
The main factors influencing a short-term stock market correction right now are: the speed of Fed rate hikes and balance sheet reduction, North Korea, the debt-ceiling, the economy, and the speed at which the Trump America First agenda is moving forward. Anything outside these main themes is likely Establishment propaganda by powerful groups battling to control public perception and thus reality.
The ‘Destroy Trump’ establishment media propaganda machine continues to attack President Trump while quietly not reporting on how the left is destroying America’s heritage and history.
In an unprecedented push to change the history of America, left-leaning groups and Democrat politicians are literally destroying statues of American history across this country. Reality check: the civil war was not JUST fought over slavery. I have studied under some of the most famous historians in this country such as Bill Coates and I can tell you that an in-depth study of history reveals that the Civil War was fought over many things and the knot that ties all these things together was a federal government in the North telling people in the South how to live.
Whether Lee, Jackson, and Davis were racists is not the point. They are, whether you like it or not, part of American history. Ripping down historic statues isn’t going to change that fact. George Washington had slaves. Let’s pull down all Washington statues. Where does it end?
This is clearly the destruction of American history and instead of reporting on the power movement behind destroying American history, here’s what CNBC is doing:
One story sort of defends trump (green), while 5 stories (red) are grotesque propaganda pieces that are part of the ‘Destroy Trump’ establishment media.
I quit subscribing to CNBC today. This is nothing more than political propaganda that has nothing to do with helping readers make money in the stock market.
Check out the stories that Google News is featuring prominent in their Google News section:
In a good and just news industry, there should be lots of stories about the movement to destroy and re-write American history by left leaning groups. We actually have a power movement underway to destroy America’s historic statues and effectively strip history away from the people and yet no one is reporting on the left leaning groups behind this push and what their ultimate agenda really is.
Sean Hannity is the only journalist that got it right IMO:
The most recent US economic sanctions against Russia has angered our ally Germany. The planned new US sanctions are set to hit German and European companies which have business interests in Russia. The German Economy Minister Brigitte Zypries asked the European Commission to consider countermeasures against the United States for increasing sanctions against Russia that would potentially hit European companies.
Germany said something I told viewers yesterday. The US sanctions against Russia are illegal. The US Congress doesn’t care about legalities. It was illegal for John McCain, Lindsey Graham, and other globalist congressmen to use tax payers money to overthrow the elected government of Ukraine. You think Congress cares about legalities? Congress considers themselves the “law makers” and so the law is what they say it is. That’s why even the SEC can’t touch Congress members for illegal insider trading that private citizens would have gone to jail over.
German Economic Minister Brigitte Zypries told a German newspaper, “We consider this to be a violation of international law. The Americans cannot punish German companies because they operate economically in another country. There are (partnerships) for natural gas and petroleum pipelines (in the region).”
Germany and much of the EU are heavily dependent on Russian natural gas, and German companies working on gas pipelines fear they could be hit with US sanctions because of Congress’ latest move.
Economic Sanctions Against Russia
Sanctions against Russia for defending itself in Ukraine against US based NGOs is misguided policy that will ultimately push Russia into a tighter alliance with China, Syria, Iran, and North Korea.
On July 21, 2017, the White House announced that President Trump will sign into law a bill on the latest set of sanctions against Russia, Iran and North Korea. Congress forced Trump’s hand because of the overwhelming support of sanctions against Russia. Congress passed the Russian sanctions bill with a veto-proof majority of 419-3 in the House and 98-to-2 in the Senate. President Trump needs to delay signing this law and instead take his case to the American people that it’s Congress, and not his Administration, that is on the marching path towards war with Russia.
Did the President make a deal with the devil to get Establishment globalists to leave his family alone in exchange for signing these sanctions against Russia? The timing seems suspect that Democrats would end the Senate Russia investigation right as new sanctions against Russia are passed.
President Putin has not given up on President Trump entirely but the New York Times writes that the way this is playing out in Russia is that US sanctions against Russia are a gift to Mr. Putin.
President Trump has an awesome opening now to take a leadership role in bringing about better relations with Russia by rejecting the new sanctions imposed against Russia by Congress.
These increased sanctions are so dumb and were not really thought out carefully. The problem is that the US has only limited trade with Russia in the first place because of previous sanctions. So to have any meaningful effect on Russia, US sanctions can’t target Russia directly but instead must target Russia’s trading partners like Germany.
Targeting German energy importers is another stupid move by Congress that could be dangerous as the EU doesn’t have any good alternatives to trade with Russia. Obviously Germany will move to protect their trade interests, irrespective of America’s wishes.
Are Sanctions Hurting Russia?
In 2015, sanctions pushed Russia’s economy into a recession with a negative GDP growth of -2.2% for the first quarter of 2015, as compared to the first quarter of 2014. Sanctions on access to financing have forced Russia to use part of its foreign exchange reserves to prop up the economy.
How do you explain to the people of Russia why the US is targeting them and putting them out of work simply because Russia defended itself against US NGOs which toppled the government of Ukraine? The optics are horrible.
Sure the latest round of sanctions imposed by Congress will hurt Russia but they will also hurt many other countries and hence our relationship with many of our allies.
Dmitri Abzalov writes in his analytical article for Russia’s online newspaper Gazeta.ru:
“Their [EU] investment share varies from 30 percent to 70 percent depending on each particular project. A possible cut off in financing will mean a serious blow to European business.”
The Blue Stream natural gas pipeline is a target of the new sanctions by Congress. Blue Stream is a major Black Sea gas pipeline that carries natural gas from Turkey to Russia. The pipeline is being constructed by a joint venture between Russia’s Gazprom and Italy’s Eni.
The new sanctions also will impact the expansion of Sakhalin-2, Russia’s LNG plant which is operated in a partnership between Japan’s Mitsubishi and Mitsui, Gazprom, and Royal Dutch Shell. Another target could be the Baltic Liquefied Natural Gas project, which is also operated by Gazprom and Royal Dutch Shell.
The sanctions also will impact the Nord Stream-2 project expansion into Germany making Germany an energy hub. If the project stops because of new US sanctions, Germany will have to give up on its dream of becoming an energy superpower as it will not be allowed to sell natural gas to Eastern Europe.
Of course the US, who is imposing these sanctions, are telling the EU that we have natural gas they can purchase. However, if the EU opts for American gas, the cost of production in Europe will increase considerably, which will be passed on in the cost of manufactured products. Germans will then be at a competitive disadvantage to cheaper goods manufactured in the US.
What about Japan? Japan has already agreed to invest in Russia’s Kuril Islands, what will it do now?
An interesting side note about the effectiveness of sanctions against Russia. When sanctions were imposed on Russia in 2015, it crashed the country’s currency which gave Russian wheat a price advantage over US wheat. The weakening Ruble allowed Russia to become the world’s #1 exporter of wheat last year. US wheat farmers were not too happy about that.
Current Sanctions On Russia
US sanctions currently against Russia specifically target Russia’s energy sector, which makes up more than half of the country’s Gross Domestic Product. No U.S. oil company can do business with Russia, nor can any companies sell drilling technology needed to access oil and gas reserves.
U.S. banks cannot issue long-term loans to Russian businesses for energy-focused projects.
European banks are also prohibited from engaging in similar financing arrangements with Russia. The European Union has also sanctioned Moscow which has pushed Russian companies to borrow money from Beijing. Beijing has become the biggest lender to Russian companies.
All of this is designed to weaken a key sector of Russia’s economy in hopes the pressure will entice Putin, over time, to reverse his annexation of Crimea and to withdraw Russian troops and its support of rebels in eastern Ukraine.
The US State.gov website shows the current sanctions against Russia:
Executive Order 13660, signed on March 6, 2014, authorizes sanctions on individuals and entities responsible for violating the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, or for stealing the assets of the Ukrainian people. These sanctions put in place restrictions on the travel of certain individuals and officials and showed our continued efforts to impose a cost on Russia and those responsible for the situation in Crimea.
Executive Order 13685 was also issued. Utilizing these Executive Orders, the United States has steadily increased the diplomatic and financial costs of Russia’s aggressive actions towards Ukraine. We have designated a number of Russian and Ukrainian entities, including 14 defense companies and individuals in Putin’s inner circle, as well as imposed targeted sanctions limiting certain financing to six of Russia’s largest banks and four energy companies.
These actions, in close coordination with our EU and international partners, send a strong message to the Russian government that there are consequences for their actions that threaten the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine. The United States, together with international partners, will continue to stand by the Ukrainian government until Russia abides by its international obligations. The United States is prepared to take additional steps to impose further political and economic costs. A secure Ukraine, integrated with Europe and enjoying good relations with all its neighbors, is in the interests of the United States, Europe, and Russia.
With Germany asking the EU to use countermeasure sanctions against the US for what it deems as illegal sanctions, a whole new level of potential conflicts and countries re-examining their relationships with the US is taking place.
The mess that we are currently in can be traced back to the Obama Administration, John McCain, and other Congress members working with George Soros to destabilize and overthrow the elected government of Ukraine.
Think of what is happening like a game of Chess. When you make a wrong move, your game slowly falls apart as every move after that initial wrong move cascades into a loss.
That’s what happens when you do something wrong. People take sides against you.
The only way out of this mess is for the US to admit it was wrong to overthrow the elected leader of Ukraine and to apologize to the people of Ukraine and Russia and to end all sanctions immediately.
What good is it that President Trump didn’t take lobbyists money in his run for the White House, if he’s constantly being manipulated by Congress who is controlled by lobbyists money? President Trump can take a leadership role in fighting against big oil and natural gas lobbyists in Congress by doing everything in his power to walk back sanctions against Russia and to improve relations with the country before it’s too late.
Putin has retaliated against the US by kicking out 755 US diplomats from Russia. Putin finally showed a crack in his maneuvering with is an opportunity for President Trump to push into that crack and take a leadership role in improving relations with Russia before it’s too late.
I was raised in the “nuclear family” as many of you were. I remember how life was under the Cold War and the constant threat of a nuclear war with Russia. Anybody actually living through that time should be fighting hard to prevent backsliding into another Cold War and nuclear arms race with Russia.
Do you have any thoughts on Germany asking the EU to use counter-sanctions against us? Leave your comments below.
Scaramucci is one tough dude brought in as the axe to purge Obama leftovers from positions of power who are hell-bent on leaking information to the press in an attempt to discredit and derail the Trump agenda.
I called for a purging of Obama leftovers from deep-state positions months ago. President Trump acted really gullible IMO. I’m so tired of watching these amateur newbies like Trump who get elected to office and then are in some serotonin fantasy of everyone holding hands and singing kumbaya and just all getting along. It’s a stupid fantasy that I called out Trump on months ago.
Finally, President Trump seems to have learned the lesson through the school of hard knocks that he needs to purge the White House and all government offices of Obama leftovers that are trying their best to sabotage his agenda.
These Obama leftovers are some sick people with communist and socialist agendas. They have high levels of security clearance and can record telephone conversations and release those conversations to Democrat controlled mainstream media groups. They are waging a silent coup against the President using the full power of the deep-state.
The President brought in the axe Scaramucci who may even recommend the firing of Reince Priebus and any other Republican Establishment dude that’s not fully on-board with the President.
Scaramucci is carrying the full-anger of the President with him and that was put on display when he said he wanted to “kill” the leakers who are trying to sabotage the President’s America first agenda.
Scaramucci called in to CNN and really laid out what is going on with the leaks and how emotionally attached he is to solving the problem:
Sean Hannity of Fox News did this interview with Scaramucci a.k.a “the axe” and the purge that’s coming to the White House and government:
I don’t think traders and the stock market care too much about leaks. This is more of a national security issue than it is a stock market issue. We are seeing a delay of the President’s agenda as a result of saboteurs inside the deep-state which is likely resulting in the drop of the US dollar. However the market has mostly shrugged off Trump agenda delays believing that eventually the President will get control of the situation. I think that’s what Scaramucci represents for stock traders: President Trump regaining control of the situation.
Do you have any thoughts on Scaramucci? Leave your comments below.
Democrats and the mainstream media are now pushing for the Trump investigation to divert to his son-in-law Jared Kushner because he bought part of the old New York Times building from a Soviet-born tycoon Lev Leviev. Like I told you, Robert Mueller as former head of the FBI, is not impartial. He’s part of the deep-state that is at odds with the President. Mueller is actually investigating Jared Kushner’s real-estate transactions now as he seeks to determine whether the Trump campaign collaborated with Russia to distort the outcome of the 2016 race.
Those who live in glass-houses shouldn’t throw rocks.
It’s looking more and more like the big power play by Democrats is to use the Trump investigation and the mainstream media to give the public the perception that President Trump is constantly under investigation. The purpose is to divert the public away from the real criminals: Hillary Clinton and the Democrat party.
Hillary’s campaign Chairman John Podesta sat on the board of a small energy company alongside Russian officials that received $35 million from a Putin-connected Russian government fund. Making things worse, Podesta never fully disclosed the relationship, as the law requires. Where is an investigation into collusion between the Hillary Clinton campaign and Russia? If Hillary Clinton took $35 million from the Russians, is that not collaborating with Russia to distort the outcome of the 2016 race?
Hillary Clinton benefited from a relationship with Russia in which she helped Vladimir Putin build Skolkovo, a high-tech community meant to be “the Russian equivalent of America’s Silicon Valley.” While Clinton was in charge at the State Department, the U.S. recruited lots of high-tech U.S. firms including Google, Cisco and Intel — to take part in the Russian project. Of the 28 companies from the U.S., Europe and Russia that took part, 17 were donors to the Clinton Foundation or paid Bill Clinton to give speeches. Where is an investigation into the Clinton Foundation’s collusion with Russia? It looks like Hillary used the State Department’s offices to line her family’s pockets through the Clinton Foundation. Why is that not being investigated? Especially since Clinton pushed for a “reset” with Russia that seems to have led to a resurgent Russia expanding its military, diplomatic and economic power in Eastern Europe. Hillary Clinton gave US tech corporations big business inside Russia in exchange for big campaign donations. Is this not collaborating with Russia to distort the outcome of the 2016 race?
If those leading the Trump investigation applied the same standards to Hillary Clinton and Democrats, they would be found guilty already!
Hillary Clinton, after receiving a subpoena for her computers, deleted thousands of emails and used the software of a company that writes over the data once it’s deleted so it can’t be recovered. It is illegal to damage and destroy information after receiving a court subpoena for that information. Where is an investigation into the cover-up by Hillary Clinton in this blatant and illegal act of destroying evidence under subpoena?
Then Attorney General Loretta Lynch had a private meeting with former President Bill Clinton aboard his airplane last year regarding the investigation into his wife Hillary Clinton. James Comey told senators that Lynch’s meeting in his view tarnished her credibility on the issue, forcing the FBI – not the Justice Department – to take the unusual step last summer of announcing that investigators had concluded their investigation of Hillary Clinton’s use of the server. James Comey dropped the investigation into Hillary Clinton’s illegal act of using her own private email server for government communications because then Attorney General Loretta Lynch had a private meeting with Bill Clinton. Why? Comey told Congress that the reason was, “…It made me worry that the department leadership could not credibly complete the investigation and decline prosecution without grievous damage to the American people’s confidence in the justice system.” We already know James Comey is drama. Where is an investigation into Attorney General Loretta Lynch and Bill Clinton which led to the FBI dropping the case against Hillary Clinton? Why is the Clinton investigation dropped so easily when proof exists of illegal activities and yet the Trump investigation is not dropped when no proof exists?
James Comey admitted leaking private and classified information to the mainstream media. Where is the investigation into the deep-state and James Comey who violated FBI rules by purposely leaking classified information to the media in a blatant attempt to harm the President after being fired by him?
CNN leaked debate questions to Hillary Clinton in order to defeat Bernie Sanders in a televised debate. This was massive election fraud that could have changed the outcome of the debate and hence the entire Presidential election. The FCC has regulatory oversight for this massive fraud against the American people. Where is an investigation into CNN manipulating the Presidential election and defrauding the public?
The biggest reason the Democrat party lost was because of their bad decision to put Hillary Clinton forward as their candidate. Hillary Clinton was a deeply flawed candidate as I discussed here. Reality check: Russia didn’t make Hillary Clinton lose. Democrats need to move on instead of acting like a bunch of babies like Miley Cyrus and wasting our valuable time and tax dollars keeping this Trump investigation going in what amounts to hardly more than a witch hunt.
I would like to read your comments if you have any. Please read the Comment Policy below before posting.