Ron Paul continues to forecast a collapse of the US economy even in light of the election of President Trump.
Ron Paul said that Federal Reserve policy has set the country up for economic collapse, and though the central bank has been very creative in making the impossible work, and putting off financial (Read More….)
Chinese bond yields exploded higher causing the Chinese government to halt trading in some futures contracts.
As the Chinese devalue the Yuan while the US Federal Reserve hikes rates, the move in China is to sell Chinese bonds and replace them with higher yielding US bonds.
Over the weekend, the PBOC extended emergency loans (Read More….)
A weekly Saturday night financial show that attempts to predict market direction for the week ahead by looking at a variety of technical and fundamental indicators. This week’s show includes commentary on the Fed’s first and only rate hike in 2016, Eli Lilly’s long-acting Basal Insulin that’s now available in the US, takeover rumors circulating (Read More….)
The rally in stocks from short covering is coming to an end as evidenced by the falling Twiggs Money Flow on all the major indices. I wrote about the Trump short covering rally here. I said a week ago that when we see a negative divergence between the Twiggs Money Flow and the major indices, (Read More….)
Traders get confused by price action in bonds relative to the stock market because of perma-bear websites like ZeroHedge. Folks, the most reliable signal for how bonds impact the stock market is very simple.
Look At Bond Prices
Your primary research into bonds should always start with bond prices first, then yields second. A bond (Read More….)
Whether we are talking about individual stocks, the stock market, or the economy, when you’re wrong just admit it and then move on. The goal is to make money, not to be right 100% of the time so you can stroke your ego.
AM TV and Peter Schiff predicted that the Federal Reserve could not (Read More….)
For the week, the DJIA gained 0.1%, the S&P 500 rose 0.8%, and the Nasdaq climbed 1.6%.
Economic data and Federal Reserve commentary virtually sealed the deal that a rate hike is coming at next month’s monetary policy meeting.
Trump needs to fire Yellen IMO. Trump has pledged a $1 trillion infrastructure spending program to (Read More….)
For the week the S&P 500 fell -1.9%, the DJIA fell -1.5%, and the Nasdaq plunged -2.8%. Last week the VIX shot back above 20 to trade at levels not seen since the June Brexit vote. The S&P extended its longest losing streak since 1980 with its ninth consecutive decline on Friday.
Oil was (Read More….)
The Federal Reserve held short-term interest rates steady as traders expected. In the Fed’s postmeeting policy statement, it said it only needed “some further evidence” of economic progress before moving forward with a rate hike.
What exactly is the further evidence that the Fed needs? To answer that, you have to know about what (Read More….)
The prospect of a Federal Reserve rate hike is driving up the US dollar. The rising US dollar has a significant impact on the US economy and thus stock market. It’s important that traders understand the implications of a rising US dollar from a macroeconomic perspective.
Rising US interest rates mean that a lot of (Read More….)
For the week the S&P 500 fell -0.7%, the DJIA was flat closing up +0.1%, and the Nasdaq dropped -1.3%. On Thursday morning of last week, I closed out all my active swing trading positions and have moved into an income fund that pays a monthly dividend and yields over 5% per year. For me, (Read More….)
Inflationary expectations are the expectations that consumers have concerning future inflation. If buyers expect higher prices in the future, they increase their demand in the present. This shifts the aggregate demand curve outward (to the right) which is good for the economy. For example, if the price of a house is expected to be higher (Read More….)
Temporary holiday season hiring in the US is stronger this year than in previous years. Employers having a higher demand for temp workers for the holiday season is a bullish signal for the US economy.
The WSJ writes…
“Five years ago we could find a lot of professional-level people that didn’t have a job,” (Read More….)
Most government revenue comes from the taxation of transactions and labor. Taxes impact both the supply and demand curves. Taxes cause a buyer to pay more for something and suppliers to receive less. The loss of value for both buyers and sellers is called the deadweight loss of taxation. Taxation has an enormous impact on (Read More….)
We have enough data to say that inflation is finally trending higher.
In case you are wondering why inflation moving higher is important, please review this.
The less volatile sticky CPI confirms the uptrend.
ObamaCare has exploded the cost of medical care higher.
Medical care commodities, which are prescription and (Read More….)
For the week, the S&P 500 lost -1%, the DJIA fell -0.6%, and the Nasdaq dropped -1.5%. Last week, preannouncements from Honeywell, Dover, Ericsson, and Fortinet scared traders, along with a disappointing Q3 report from Alcoa. HP announced a cut of 3,000 to 4,000 jobs across all divisions because of challenging market conditions.
Friday’s solid (Read More….)
Illegal immigration negatively impacts the hourly wage of US citizens. Illegal immigrants are pouring across the Mexico border, and we have no way of counting them but what we can do is track legal immigration from Mexico then double the number for a fuzzy-math estimate.
With legal immigration and an impenetrable border, economists working (Read More….)
The stock market is being taken down by the rising US dollar. Check out the chart below of UUP and the S&P 500.
Our largest trading partner Canada is devaluing the Canadian dollar.
Our second largest trading partner China is devaluing the Yuan which is pushing up the US dollar. In overnight trading, (Read More….)
We all love rising wages, but it is rising wages that will cause the next recession and Bear market.
Below is a chart of labor costs (red) versus corporate profits (blue).
A clear pattern emerges from the chart above. Profits rise after a recession as labor costs fall. When the labor market reaches (Read More….)