Tag: Federal Reserve

A chart of the Fed funds rate and how rate hikes are slowing down earnings growth.

Earnings Growth Slowing As Interest Rates Rise


With Q3 earnings season in the rear-view mirror, we can now say that earnings growth is slowing. Over the last 4 quarters we have growth rates of: 2.1%, 6.5%, 6.5%, and 4.1%. Federal Reserve rate hikes and quantitative tightening are causing earnings growth to slow as you can see in the chart below. The grey Read More »

Post Holdings stock chart shows a positive divergence between large players volume and price.

Post Holdings Stock Bases As Large Players Volume Rises


Post Holdings stock has rising large players volume as the stock has pulled back over the last 6 weeks. This consumer staples company is a great seasonal play too.

S&P 500 earnings are forecast to rise in 2018.

S&P 500 Earnings Rising, No Worries Until They Fall From Fed Hikes



Citigroup stock

Citigroup Inc Rising Large Players Volume On Credit Suisse Price Target Hike



Ishares Core Short-Term US Bond In Strong Uptrend



Price of Copper Retakes Key Level as Global Economy Improves


Doctor Copper is signaling an improved outlook for the global economy as the price of copper has retaken the key $2.86 level. China is the world’s largest importer of copper using more than three million tonnes a year. In an attempt to improve the environment, China is proposing a copper import ban. China’s copper industry Read More »

High Yield Debt Surges Higher Which Favors the Bulls


Following high yield debt is an excellent way to time market swings. A high yield bond (non-investment-grade bond, speculative-grade bond, or junk bond) is a bond that is rated below investment grade. These bonds have a higher risk of default and so they pay a higher yield than better quality bonds. Bonds rated below BBB− Read More »

Corporate Bond Yields Spread Falling… Another Bullish Indicator


Corporate bond yields spreads are falling which suggests there is a low default risk. Using Fred and Moody’s we can chart the spread between lowest investment grade (Baa) and equivalent 10-year Treasury yields. Corporate Bond Yields Spread Chart Corporate bond spreads are at there lowest point since 2008. This suggests that markets are pricing in Read More »

United States Economy Teetering On Collapse


The United States economy is teetering, despite what the stock and job markets are saying. The US economy is consumption-centric. Growth in the current recovery has focused on three sectors that have fed through to consumption in its various forms: autos, energy, and financial services. The scariest set of financial indicators to emerge in decades Read More »

Fed Rate Hikes Are More About Slowing GDP Than Improving GDP


The pitch by the Federal Reserve is that GDP is growing which is why they are hiking rates. The Fed has said that rate hikes are representative of their belief that economic growth is picking up and so really, rate hikes are something that is bullish for the economy and GDP going forward. If you Read More »

Two Problems With US Retail Sales


The US retail sales report was released today and there are two big problems that traders and investors need to know about. US Retail Sales, Where’s the Recovery? According to the Federal Reserve the retail apocalypse was supposed to be transitory. We were told that retail sales were going to improve in Q2 after the Read More »

Bear Market Coming If Trump Agenda Does Not Move Forward


A bear market is coming if President Trump’s agenda does not move forward quickly. I have been saying for months now that the Federal Reserve is hiking rates not because we are in a strong economy that needs cooling off but instead to save pension fund holders and others who depend on the income generated Read More »