Chinese bond yields exploded higher causing the Chinese government to halt trading in some futures contracts.
As the Chinese devalue the Yuan while the US Federal Reserve hikes rates, the move in China is to sell Chinese bonds and replace them with higher yielding US bonds.
Over the weekend, the PBOC extended emergency loans (Read More….)
With the stock market hitting all-time highs, everybody wants to know if we are in a giant bubble.
You can’t trade and make money if you’re not in the market. If the fear that we are in a bubble is keeping you out, then you’re not making money.
The honey badger doesn’t care. The honey (Read More….)
For the week the S&P 500 fell -1.9%, the DJIA fell -1.5%, and the Nasdaq plunged -2.8%. Last week the VIX shot back above 20 to trade at levels not seen since the June Brexit vote. The S&P extended its longest losing streak since 1980 with its ninth consecutive decline on Friday.
Oil was (Read More….)
The Federal Reserve held short-term interest rates steady as traders expected. In the Fed’s postmeeting policy statement, it said it only needed “some further evidence” of economic progress before moving forward with a rate hike.
What exactly is the further evidence that the Fed needs? To answer that, you have to know about what (Read More….)
Most government revenue comes from the taxation of transactions and labor. Taxes impact both the supply and demand curves. Taxes cause a buyer to pay more for something and suppliers to receive less. The loss of value for both buyers and sellers is called the deadweight loss of taxation. Taxation has an enormous impact on (Read More….)
Illegal immigration negatively impacts the hourly wage of US citizens. Illegal immigrants are pouring across the Mexico border, and we have no way of counting them but what we can do is track legal immigration from Mexico then double the number for a fuzzy-math estimate.
With legal immigration and an impenetrable border, economists working (Read More….)
The stock market is being taken down by the rising US dollar. Check out the chart below of UUP and the S&P 500.
Our largest trading partner Canada is devaluing the Canadian dollar.
Our second largest trading partner China is devaluing the Yuan which is pushing up the US dollar. In overnight trading, (Read More….)
The overwhelming number of financial reports on the economy last week showed that the U.S. economy is continuing to slow.
The Federal Reserve has put markets on notice that they will be hiking rates by the end of the year. The Fed is not expected to hike rates next week at their September 21, 2016, (Read More….)
The velocity of money has hit the lowest level ever recorded as I wrote about here. I believe the crowding out effect is at least partially to blame for the slowdown in the velocity of money.
President Obama has run the national debt up to nearly $20 trillion, more than all President’s before him combined. (Read More….)
I’ve been asking traders what causes low-interest rates. The consensus is that the Federal Reserve is what causes low-interest rates. That is not entirely true and believing that could be harmful to your trading account.
Some 250 years ago, David Hume was the very first economist to explain what causes low-interest rates.
The three things (Read More….)
Fed’s Eric Rosengren was clear in his speech early Friday that rates need to be raised. Mr. Rosengren said that if we don’t raise rates soon, we could crash the economy. Mr. Rosengren said, “A failure to continue on the path of gradual removal of accommodation could shorten, rather than lengthen, the duration of this (Read More….)
The increased volatility that we have been waiting for finally arrived last week as institutional traders clean house as they return from summer vacations. Corporate debt offerings surged as company’s looked to roll over financing costs ahead of a potential Fed rate hike by the end of the year. The August ISM Services reading hit (Read More….)
Falling profit margins typically precede a recession. Last week, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released the latest profit margin numbers that clearly point to an oncoming recession.
Notice how the last two recessions (shaded areas) came within six months of a -20% change from a year ago (red line). The only thing that is (Read More….)
The U.S. government is pulling out all the stops on the idea that consumers are strengthening, and that GDP will surge higher in the second half of 2016.
Below is the latest Real Personal Consumption Expenditures released on Monday.
Personal income also continues to grow…
Growing real personal consumption and income (Read More….)
Last month I dropped coverage of GDPNow after the GDP forecast was dropped by a huge amount right before the actual GDP release. Immediately after the GDP release, they release a Q3 GDP estimate that was at 3.7% which supported the Fed’s yearly lie that the economy was set to strengthen in the second half (Read More….)
The internet is buzzing about the latest Retail Sales report that shows a gradual slowdown in consumer spending. The buzz centers around the question of how can the S&P 500 be hitting all-time highs when retail sales continue to trend downward?
Some are speculating that the Democrat and Republican Establishments are working together to (Read More….)
The significant negative impact on US markets from Brexit is the rising US dollar. It is the rising dollar which will ultimately cause a stock market crash. Traders from around the world are selling out of the British Pound and the Euro, and buying safer US dollars.
The rising US dollar is harmful to (Read More….)
If you are looking for a black swan event that could plunge the weak US economy into a full-blown recession, Brexit could be it.
Big US banks have already taken brutal losses over the last year.
Bank of America has more than $2.1 trillion in assets. Bank of Amerca’s stock has plunged -20% from a (Read More….)
The motor vehicles and parts component of the Industrial Production report has gone negative for the first time since September 2007, right before the start of the Great Recession.
The mainstream financial media is strangely quiet about the chart above.
The economic slowdown is clearly turning into something much more serious: an outright recession. (Read More….)
The fallout from the last Employment Situation report continues with a new shocking revelation: temporary jobs are continuing to drop.
You can think of the relationship between the temporary jobs market and the permanent jobs market like the relationship between the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500. The temporary jobs market is like (Read More….)
Back on May 19th, when the Federal Reserve was out in force declaring that the US economy was strong and that a rate hike was likely coming in June or July, I published an article entitled Shocker: A Recession May Have Already Started.
I can’t help but think that Friday’s Employment Situation report just confirmed (Read More….)