ISM Manufacturing Best In 13 Years as Short Gold Trade Is On

The ISM Manufacturing Index rose to 59.8 in September for the highest reading since August 2005. The ISM factory activity reading was the best in nearly 13 years.

Traders immediately took to shorting gold on the very bullish economic report.

Iamgold At 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement Level

Iamgold has pulled back to its 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level. Personally I'm not very good at swing trading gold and silver but I wanted to make you aware of the Fibonacci Retracement setup. I did a stock trading lesson on Fibonacci Retracements here.

Iamgold Corporation is a Toronto-based international gold producer that has an annual production of approximately 800,000 ounces of gold from operations in North America, South America, and West Africa.



A pullback is taking place, which may present an opportunity for an entry off the 38.2% retracement level. There is a very little resistance above the current price.

Debt Ceiling and Peter Schiff vs Trump

Peter Schiff is using the latest news about an attempt to end the debt ceiling as a way to promote his long gold positions:

Source: Peter Schiff YouTube

Of course Schiff works in the gold promotion industry and so it’s not surprising to hear all the ways Schiff interprets the news as being good for gold. He’s been wrong since 2012 when gold peaked but eventually he’ll be right again, at least for a little while.

Minus the gold bug doom and gloom spinning, let’s look at what’s really going on with the push to end the debt ceiling.

Debt Ceiling

President Trump said he would think about working with Democrats to end the limit on the country’s borrowing. According to The Washington Post, Trump and Schumer have agreed to work on a plan to eliminate the debt ceiling.

President Trump told reporters on Thursday that “there are a lot of good reasons” to get rid of it.

Speaker of the House Paul Ryan, R-Wis., specifically has come out against eliminating the debt ceiling.

Republicans Dishonest About The Debt Ceiling

Republicans have been dishonest about the debt ceiling for many years. The debt ceiling has nothing to do with being fiscally responsible. In fact, it is just the opposite. Using the debt ceiling to control spending is like a corporation using Accounts Payable to control costs. Dumb, right? In a corporation, Accounts Payable writes the check and mails it to a vendor. It would be detrimental to the health of a corporation for the boss to tell Accounts Payable to stop writing checks and paying vendors as a way to control costs. Vendors would stop doing work for the corporation and the entire business would implode. A boss controls costs by making decisions BEFORE an invoice gets to Accounts Payable for payment.

Another analogy is declining to pay a credit card bill or agreeing to go to dinner and then arguing about whether you’re going to pay the bill, after you’ve already eaten.

Congress is dumb to threaten to not pay its bills as a means of controlling costs. It destabilizes the country and sends the message that it’s risky working for or doing business with the US government. The time to control costs is during the budget approval process and NOT after the debt has already been incurred.

The debt ceiling is hardly more than a public manipulation tool of Congressmen to fool voters into thinking they are trying to control costs by voting against raising the debt ceiling, while at the same time voting for the government programs that caused the ceiling to be hit in the first place!

When Republicans took back the House in 1995, they brought back the debt ceiling vote as a way to pressure members on spending. Republicans would waver back and forth on using the debt ceiling vote. Sometimes they’d use the budget procedure to wave it through, and then other times they’d require the vote. It’s silly because it’s just politics and grandstanding. I mean how effective has the debt ceiling really been considering we have $20 trillion in debt?

If Republicans really wanted to control spending then they would vote for budgetary and spending decisions that would balance the budget. If Republicans really wanted to reduce government spending they would do that because that’s where the money is spent.

Richard Gephardt, D-Mo. has proposed the ‘Gephardt rule,’ which does away with the need for a second debt ceiling vote to approve borrowing once Congress has already voted once to approve spending that inherently necessitates borrowing.

Peter Schiff doesn’t know what he’s talking about when he claims that President Trump is for big spending and even bigger government and that his working with Democrats to end the second debt ceiling vote is somehow proof of that. I’m not sure Schiff himself honestly believes that. I think Schiff is playing to his alternative-news audience which are primarily gold bugs. Any bit of news that can be spun to support some lofty $5,000 an ounce for gold prediction, is what Peter Schiff does and boy does he do it well.

Economic News: Economy is Rapidly Slowing

economic newsIn an economic news report posted on YouTube (link above) by X22 Report, it cites how the average Millennial has less than $1,000 saved to buy a home. Not only do I think that’s true, I would add that the average Millennial has zero money saved for retirement.

Economic News Forecasts Recession

Most younger people have low paying service sector jobs like McDonald’s or Carl’s Junior, and most are dealing with student loan debt.

X22 Report says that the economy has already entered into a recession and is on the verge of a complete collapse.

Please keep in mind that the X22 Report is a perma-bear YouTube channel and they make money off of doomsday preppers and pitching gold and silver. They operate in the alternative news niche and so understand the alternative news industry. Don’t go bipolar and go out and short the market just yet. Nevertheless, it’s good to listen to the bearish perspective to balance against the bull perspective of the mainstream financial media.

287K Jobs: Something Is Rotten In the US

The non-farm payrolls number came in at an incredible 287,000 jobs created in June. The shocking June non-farm payrolls report has some serious problems though that seem to suggest it could be fake.

I’m betting that the next jobs report in August will show a big downward revision.

Chart Source:

Something seems sort of fake about the non-farm payrolls report. How is it possible to go from 11K jobs one month (May was revised down from 38K to 11K), to 287,000 the next? Statistically, is that even possible?

Skepticism aside, here are the “details” of the report:

Leisure and Hospitality = added 59,000 jobs
Education and Health = added 59,000 jobs
Information Technology = added 44,000 jobs
Retail Trade = added 30,000 jobs
Professional Services = added 23,000 jobs
Government = added 22,000 jobs
Financial Services = added 16,000 jobs

There is another problem with the data. How could all of these jobs have been added while the Federal Reserve refuses to raise interest rates even another quarter point? If the economy was healthy enough to have the capability of adding 287,000 in a single month, the Fed would have already hikes rates in my opinion.

There is yet another problem with the non-farm payrolls report. How can the June average hourly earnings increase come in at only 0.1%? That’s right; average hourly earnings fell short of the expected 0.2% number. Statistically, the only way that is possible is if most of the jobs added were minimum wage jobs, and so they had a little impact on the average hourly earnings growth rate.

Finally, if the jobs report was so good then why are precious metals up so much?


To borrow from Hamlet, “Something is rotten in the state of Denmark.”

Let me know in the comments section below if you think I’m completely off-the-mark here with my skeptical questions about June’s non-farm payrolls report.

Sofi AI Market Sentiment Gauge

Sofi AI Market Sentiment Gauge

Market is neither overbought or oversold.