ISM Manufacturing Best In 13 Years as Short Gold Trade Is On

The ISM Manufacturing Index rose to 59.8 in September for the highest reading since August 2005. The ISM factory activity reading was the best in nearly 13 years.

Traders immediately took to shorting gold on the very bullish economic report.
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Iamgold At 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement Level

Iamgold has pulled back to its 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level. Personally I’m not very good at swing trading gold and silver but I wanted to make you aware of the Fibonacci Retracement setup. I did a stock trading lesson on Fibonacci Retracements here.

Iamgold Corporation is a Toronto-based international gold producer that has an annual production of approximately 800,000 ounces of gold from operations in North America, South America, and West Africa.

Iamgold

Iamgold

A pullback is taking place, which may present an opportunity for an entry off the 38.2% retracement level. There is a very little resistance above the current price.

Continue reading “Iamgold At 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement Level”

Debt Ceiling and Peter Schiff vs Trump

Peter Schiff is using the latest news about an attempt to end the debt ceiling as a way to promote his long gold positions:


Source: Peter Schiff YouTube

Of course Schiff works in the gold promotion industry and so it’s not surprising to hear all the ways Schiff interprets the news as being good for gold. He’s been wrong since 2012 when gold peaked but eventually he’ll be right again, at least for a little while.

Minus the gold bug doom and gloom spinning, let’s look at what’s really going on with the push to end the debt ceiling.

Debt Ceiling

President Trump said he would think about working with Democrats to end the limit on the country’s borrowing. According to The Washington Post, Trump and Schumer have agreed to work on a plan to eliminate the debt ceiling.

President Trump told reporters on Thursday that “there are a lot of good reasons” to get rid of it.

Speaker of the House Paul Ryan, R-Wis., specifically has come out against eliminating the debt ceiling.

Republicans Dishonest About The Debt Ceiling

Republicans have been dishonest about the debt ceiling for many years. The debt ceiling has nothing to do with being fiscally responsible. In fact, it is just the opposite. Using the debt ceiling to control spending is like a corporation using Accounts Payable to control costs. Dumb, right? In a corporation, Accounts Payable writes the check and mails it to a vendor. It would be detrimental to the health of a corporation for the boss to tell Accounts Payable to stop writing checks and paying vendors as a way to control costs. Vendors would stop doing work for the corporation and the entire business would implode. A boss controls costs by making decisions BEFORE an invoice gets to Accounts Payable for payment.

Another analogy is declining to pay a credit card bill or agreeing to go to dinner and then arguing about whether you’re going to pay the bill, after you’ve already eaten.

Congress is dumb to threaten to not pay its bills as a means of controlling costs. It destabilizes the country and sends the message that it’s risky working for or doing business with the US government. The time to control costs is during the budget approval process and NOT after the debt has already been incurred.

The debt ceiling is hardly more than a public manipulation tool of Congressmen to fool voters into thinking they are trying to control costs by voting against raising the debt ceiling, while at the same time voting for the government programs that caused the ceiling to be hit in the first place!

When Republicans took back the House in 1995, they brought back the debt ceiling vote as a way to pressure members on spending. Republicans would waver back and forth on using the debt ceiling vote. Sometimes they’d use the budget procedure to wave it through, and then other times they’d require the vote. It’s silly because it’s just politics and grandstanding. I mean how effective has the debt ceiling really been considering we have $20 trillion in debt?

If Republicans really wanted to control spending then they would vote for budgetary and spending decisions that would balance the budget. If Republicans really wanted to reduce government spending they would do that because that’s where the money is spent.

Richard Gephardt, D-Mo. has proposed the ‘Gephardt rule,’ which does away with the need for a second debt ceiling vote to approve borrowing once Congress has already voted once to approve spending that inherently necessitates borrowing.

Peter Schiff doesn’t know what he’s talking about when he claims that President Trump is for big spending and even bigger government and that his working with Democrats to end the second debt ceiling vote is somehow proof of that. I’m not sure Schiff himself honestly believes that. I think Schiff is playing to his alternative-news audience which are primarily gold bugs. Any bit of news that can be spun to support some lofty $5,000 an ounce for gold prediction, is what Peter Schiff does and boy does he do it well.

Gold Price Forecast of $1500 For First Time Since 2013

The gold price forecast puts gold at $1,500, a level not hit since 2013. The $1,500 forecast was made by the credible Frank Holmes of US Global Investors and not some perma-bear gold bug as reported by MarketWatch here.

Already in 2017, gold prices are up close to 8% which is what they gained for all of last year.

Gold is benefiting from the weakening U.S. dollar. In other words, President Trump’s policy agenda being derailed by ObamaCare is acting as one of the biggest catalysts for gold.

Gold Price Chart

I like to chart gold with a Renko chart using a box size of ATR 14. A Renko chart removes a lot of the noise inherent in a normal gold price chart. Remember, gold is girlie. Gold is always a drama play. The Renko chart helps remove a lot of that drama-noise on the chart so that you can better see the underlying trend. We are currently working on a 3 box reversal which is a bullish signal for gold.

Simple Gold Trading Strategy

Rather than try and pick high-quality gold mining stocks, I prefer the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners exchange-traded fund (GDXJ). Just last month, Van Eck announced that it was expanding the criteria determining which stocks could be included in the popular gold mining ETF because the ETF had gotten too big as investors have piled into the fund so far in 2017.

The chart doesn’t look pretty. Large Players volume and the Twiggs Money Flow looks weak. The chart pattern I do like is a Symmetrical Triangle that appears to be forming. Remember, gold is never just a technical play. The catalyst for gold is always drama and we have plenty of that right now.

Gold Price Forecast Justified

Is the gold price forecast of $1,500 justified? I think so because gold is how you play drama.

There’s so much drama going on that even John McCain left the hospital so he could use his brain-cancer to try and push forward his own agenda. That’s drama folks. Or course John McCain didn’t really make anything better, he just stirred up more drama. Meanwhile, the debt ceiling limit is fast approaching and no one is talking about it because their too busy arguing over ObamaCare that is completely collapsing now.

The FBI and Mueller, at the bequest of the Establishment, are doing a Russia witch hunt against Trump while Trump’s own Attorney General Jeff Sessions recused himself of the Russia investigation AFTER being appointed effectively tricking the President. Drama!

President Trump has already taken the US to the brink of war with Russia probably, in part, to prove he’s not in collusion with Russia.

Then you have President Trump using Twitter to bash his political enemies every chance he gets putting drama on top of drama.

All this drama bodes well for gold and the signs are that it is likely going to get worse so I’ve picked up some GDXJ in my personal trading account. You guys know me, I’m in and out for a quick gain if I can get it.

Are you thinking about buying gold? Leave your comments below.

B2Gold Corp Testing Symmetrical Triangle Resistance

B2Gold Corp is testing Symmetrical Triangle resistance for a possible breakout on building tensions in North Korea and Syria, and the slowing U.S. economy.

B2Gold Corp Stock Chart

BTG looks like a good setup on a move higher in gold. Prices have been consolidating lately in a bullish flag pattern. There is a resistance zone just above the current price starting at 2.77. Right above this resistance zone may be a good entry point. We have also had a Pocket Pivot signal on June 16, 2017 which is another bullish sign.

The Twiggs Money Flow shows some accumulation taking place into the consolidation move.

On the Effective Volume indicator, we don’t have as many large buyers as I’d like to see but that could change quickly if a flight to safety into gold takes place and B2Gold Corp does a Symmetrical Triangle breakout.

GO HERE TO CHART LARGE PLAYERS AND THE TWIGGS MONEY FLOW LIKE THE CHART ABOVE… AWESOME TOOL

Economic News: Economy is Rapidly Slowing

In an economic news report posted on YouTube (link above) by X22 Report, it cites how the average Millennial has less than $1,000 saved to buy a home. Not only do I think that’s true, I would add that the average Millennial has zero money saved for retirement.

Economic News Forecasts Recession

Most younger people have low paying service sector jobs like McDonald’s or Carl’s Junior, and most are dealing with student loan debt.

X22 Report says that the economy has already entered into a recession and is on the verge of a complete collapse.

Please keep in mind that the X22 Report is a perma-bear YouTube channel and they make money off of doomsday preppers and pitching gold and silver. They operate in the alternative news niche and so understand the alternative news industry. Don’t go bipolar and go out and short the market just yet. Nevertheless, it’s good to listen to the bearish perspective to balance against the bull perspective of the mainstream financial media.

287K Jobs: Something Is Rotten In the US

The non-farm payrolls number came in at an incredible 287,000 jobs created in June. The shocking June non-farm payrolls report has some serious problems though that seem to suggest it could be fake.

I’m betting that the next jobs report in August will show a big downward revision.

Source: Econoday.com
Chart Source: Econoday.com

Something seems sort of fake about the non-farm payrolls report. How is it possible to go from 11K jobs one month (May was revised down from 38K to 11K), to 287,000 the next? Statistically, is that even possible?

Skepticism aside, here are the “details” of the report:

Leisure and Hospitality = added 59,000 jobs
Education and Health = added 59,000 jobs
Information Technology = added 44,000 jobs
Retail Trade = added 30,000 jobs
Professional Services = added 23,000 jobs
Government = added 22,000 jobs
Financial Services = added 16,000 jobs

There is another problem with the data. How could all of these jobs have been added while the Federal Reserve refuses to raise interest rates even another quarter point? If the economy was healthy enough to have the capability of adding 287,000 in a single month, the Fed would have already hikes rates in my opinion.

There is yet another problem with the non-farm payrolls report. How can the June average hourly earnings increase come in at only 0.1%? That’s right; average hourly earnings fell short of the expected 0.2% number. Statistically, the only way that is possible is if most of the jobs added were minimum wage jobs, and so they had a little impact on the average hourly earnings growth rate.

Finally, if the jobs report was so good then why are precious metals up so much?

To borrow from Hamlet, “Something is rotten in the state of Denmark.”

Let me know in the comments section below if you think I’m completely off-the-mark here with my skeptical questions about June’s non-farm payrolls report.

NUGT Long Entry On 38.2 Percent Retracement

I took a long entry today in NUGT on a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. I booked profits in NUGT last week and was a bit bummed as I watched it go higher and higher. Then, a miracle happened and we had a huge pullback today on the ADP job report today. NUGT set up right into a 38.2% retracement.

Even if the non-farm payrolls report tomorrow is a solid number and gold goes even lower, I’m long gold for “bigger picture” reasons.

Kinross Gold Corporation Strike Ends at Tasiast Mine

June 13, 2016: Strike ends at Kinoss Gold Corporation’s Tasiast Mine. The strike was settled quickly and so it is not expected to impact annual guidance. The strike by unionized employees at its Tasiast mine that began on May 24, 2016 has ended. Striking employees began returning to work on June 11, 2016 and negotiations with the staff delegates on a new collective labour agreement and other outstanding items are expected to re-commence within ten days. Employees retain the right to strike during negotiations subject to Mauritanian labour laws.

The strike is not expected to impact the Company’s annual regional guidance and did not affect development of the Tasiast Phase One expansion.

April 11, 2016: RBC raised Kinross Gold Corporation to Outperform from Sector Perform, and sets a price target of $4.75. The price target was raised to $4.75 from $3.50. RBC analyst cites upward revision to firm’s gold price deck.

More Kinross Gold News

March 30, 2016: Kinross Gold Corporation to proceed with phase one of the Tasiast Expansion. Kinross Gold is proceeding with the Phase One expansion of its Tasiast mine in Mauritania. Phase One is expected to increase mill throughput capacity from the current 8,000 tonnes per day (t/d) to 12,000 t/d, while significantly reducing Tasiast’s operating costs and increasing production. Preparations for Phase One construction to install incremental crushing and grinding capacity to the existing carbon-in-leach (CIL) circuit, which includes an oversized semi-autogenous grinding (SAG) mill and gyratory crusher, will begin immediately. Phase One is expected to reach full production by the end of Q1 2018 with estimated capital expenditures of approximately $300 million.

February 09, 2016: Credit Suisse raised Kinross Gold Corporation to an Outperform rating from Neutral, and set a price target of $2.75. Credit Suisse analyst cites potential margin expansion and valuation.

February 7, 2016: BMO Capital Markets raised Kinross Gold to Outperform from Market Perform.

Kinross Gold Corporation engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of gold bearing properties. Kinross is a Canadian-based senior gold mining company with mines and projects in the United States, Brazil, Russia, Mauritania, Chile and Ghana.

KinrossGold published this video about their company:

KinrossGold published this video about their 20 years in Russia:

KinrossGold published this video about their Alaskan operations: