Whether we are talking about individual stocks, the stock market, or the economy, when you’re wrong just admit it and then move on. The goal is to make money, not to be right 100% of the time so you can stroke your ego.
AM TV and Peter Schiff predicted that the Federal Reserve could not (Read More….)
As traders, we track the monthly Employment Situation report closely. The market often does a short-term move on the first Friday of every month when the Employment Situation report for the previous month is released. Do you understand what the Employment report is showing? I bet many traders do not. As traders, we have to (Read More….)
We have enough data to say that inflation is finally trending higher.
In case you are wondering why inflation moving higher is important, please review this.
The less volatile sticky CPI confirms the uptrend.
ObamaCare has exploded the cost of medical care higher.
Medical care commodities, which are prescription and (Read More….)
Falling profit margins typically precede a recession. Last week, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released the latest profit margin numbers that clearly point to an oncoming recession.
Notice how the last two recessions (shaded areas) came within six months of a -20% change from a year ago (red line). The only thing that is (Read More….)
The U.S. government is pulling out all the stops on the idea that consumers are strengthening, and that GDP will surge higher in the second half of 2016.
Below is the latest Real Personal Consumption Expenditures released on Monday.
Personal income also continues to grow…
Growing real personal consumption and income (Read More….)
The real GDP per capita shows just how rocky and unstable the U.S. economy continues to be since the Great Recession.
Most stock traders know what real GDP per capita is, but let’s quickly review for anyone who doesn’t.
GDP is the market value of all finished goods and services, produced within a country (Read More….)
Deutsche Bank may be on the verge of collapse. Last week Deutsche Bank reported Q2 2016 earnings of 20 million euros which is a 98% drop in earnings year-over-year.
In 2015, Deutsche Bank announced its first full year of loss since the 2008 recession.
Deutsche Bank’s stock is down -60% over the last year (Read More….)
The yield curve continues to flatten at an alarming rate. The spread between the two years and the 30-year bond is the lowest since 2008.
In a note to clients, Deutsche Bank writes…
Since the UK referendum the US yield curve has flattened to new post-crisis lows… This relentless flattening of the curve is (Read More….)
China’s manufacturing sector continues to contract. The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI for June came in at 48.6. For the last three months in a row, China’s PMI has come in below 50.
Chinese corporate bond market defaults are on the rise. So far in 2016, 34 defaults are on the record books totaling (Read More….)
Pending home sales have fallen the most since May 2010. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is spinning this as potential buyers are being thwarted by a shortage of affordable homes because sales are so good.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, writes…
With demand holding firm this spring and homes selling even faster than (Read More….)
Gross private domestic investment is no longer growing. The last time that happened was in 2009 during the Great Recession.
Gross private domestic investment (GPDI) is the amount of money that local businesses invest within their country. It includes replacement purchases plus net additions to capital assets plus investments in inventories. These expenditures account (Read More….)
As goes Japan, so goes the S&P 500. History shows that the Japanese Nikkei 225 is an excellent predictor of a stock market crash in the US.
The red line is the Japanese Nikkei 225 index, and the blue line is the S&P 500 index. In 2000 and 2008, Japanese stocks turned down and (Read More….)
This chart might be one of the scariest you will see this week. It gives a bleak picture of what is going on inside corporate America.
The number of companies increasing dividends per share has dropped by the most since right before the Great Recession.
Andrew Birstingl, Research Analyst for FactSet.com writes…
But while (Read More….)
The motor vehicles and parts component of the Industrial Production report has gone negative for the first time since September 2007, right before the start of the Great Recession.
The mainstream financial media is strangely quiet about the chart above.
The economic slowdown is clearly turning into something much more serious: an outright recession. (Read More….)
George Soros has come out of retirement to personally oversee big bearish bets against the market including bearish derivatives and huge positions in gold and gold mining stocks.
The spooky thing is that the last time Soros did this was in 2007, right before the last recession.
George Soros is a big supporter (Read More….)
The fallout from the last Employment Situation report continues with a new shocking revelation: temporary jobs are continuing to drop.
You can think of the relationship between the temporary jobs market and the permanent jobs market like the relationship between the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500. The temporary jobs market is like (Read More….)
Earnings are the amount of profit that a company produces during a quarter. Earnings are the most important catalyst that drives stock price.
Folks, earnings are crashing. That’s a huge red warning flag waving right in front of investors faces but many are choosing to stick their heads in the sand.
This chart shows earnings (Read More….)