Tag: Great Recession

Don’t Double Down On Wrong Prediction, Just Move On


Whether we are talking about individual stocks, the stock market, or the economy, when you’re wrong just admit it and then move on. The goal is to make money, not to be right 100% of the time so you can stroke your ego. AM TV and Peter Schiff predicted that the Federal Reserve could not Read More »

Frictional Unemployment and The Employment Situation Report


As traders, we track the monthly Employment Situation report closely. The market often does a short-term move on the first Friday of every month when the Employment Situation report for the previous month is released. Do you understand what the Employment report is showing? I bet many traders do not. As traders, we have to Read More »

Here Comes Inflation FINALLY! Traders Focus On Earnings


We have enough data to say that inflation is finally trending higher. In case you are wondering why inflation moving higher is important, please review this. The less volatile sticky CPI confirms the uptrend. ObamaCare has exploded the cost of medical care higher. Medical care commodities, which are prescription and non-prescription Read More »

A supply and demand chart showing equilibrium at the center axis of where supply and demand cross.

The Aggregate Supply-Aggregate Demand Model


Looking at the aggregate supply (AS), aggregate demand (AD) model, we can see where the US economy is currently at in the economic cycle. It is critical that traders and investors understand where we are at in the business cycle so as to be in on the right side of the trade. Timing Bull/Bear cycles Read More »

Low Interest Rates Making All The Difference


Falling profit margins typically precede a recession. Last week, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released the latest profit margin numbers that clearly point to an oncoming recession. Notice how the last two recessions (shaded areas) came within six months of a -20% change from a year ago (red line). The only thing that is different Read More »

US Government All In On Consumer Growing Stronger


The U.S. government is pulling out all the stops on the idea that consumers are strengthening, and that GDP will surge higher in the second half of 2016. Below is the latest Real Personal Consumption Expenditures released on Monday. Personal income also continues to grow… Growing real personal consumption and income has led to an Read More »

Real GDP Per Capita Shows Rocky and Unstable US Economy


The real GDP per capita shows just how rocky and unstable the U.S. economy continues to be since the Great Recession. Most stock traders know what real GDP per capita is, but let’s quickly review for anyone who doesn’t. GDP is the market value of all finished goods and services, produced within a country in Read More »

Deadly Parasitic Derivative Collapse Spreading Through Global Markets


Deutsche Bank may be on the verge of collapse. Last week Deutsche Bank reported Q2 2016 earnings of 20 million euros which is a 98% drop in earnings year-over-year. In 2015, Deutsche Bank announced its first full year of loss since the 2008 recession. Deutsche Bank’s stock is down -60% over the last year meaning Read More »

US Yield Curve Shocker: 60% Chance of Recession In 12 Months


The yield curve continues to flatten at an alarming rate. The spread between the two years and the 30-year bond is the lowest since 2008. In a note to clients, Deutsche Bank writes… Since the UK referendum the US yield curve has flattened to new post-crisis lows… This relentless flattening of the curve is worrisome… Read More »

Pending Home Sales Fall the Most Since May 2010


Pending home sales have fallen the most since May 2010. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is spinning this as potential buyers are being thwarted by a shortage of affordable homes because sales are so good. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, writes… With demand holding firm this spring and homes selling even faster than a Read More »

Jaw Dropping Chart Shows Severe Economic Contraction In 2016


This chart might be one of the scariest you will see this week. It gives a bleak picture of what is going on inside corporate America. The number of companies increasing dividends per share has dropped by the most since right before the Great Recession. Andrew Birstingl, Research Analyst for FactSet.com writes new Read More »

Motor Vehicle Sales Go Negative First Time Since September 2007


The motor vehicles and parts component of the Industrial Production report has gone negative for the first time since September 2007, right before the start of the Great Recession. The mainstream financial media is strangely quiet about the chart above. The economic slowdown is clearly turning into something much more serious: an outright recession. What Read More »