With the stock market hitting all-time highs, everybody wants to know if we are in a giant bubble.
You can’t trade and make money if you’re not in the market. If the fear that we are in a bubble is keeping you out, then you’re not making money.
The honey badger doesn’t care. The honey (Read More….)
We pulled off an incredible victory of getting Donald Trump elected. Congrats guys, we did it. Now the first point of focus is the backward bending Laffer Curve. Thanks to the reckless policies of Democrats and Obama, the national debt is up to almost $20 trillion dollars. The horrible national debt leaves Trump with little (Read More….)
For the week the S&P 500 fell -1.9%, the DJIA fell -1.5%, and the Nasdaq plunged -2.8%. Last week the VIX shot back above 20 to trade at levels not seen since the June Brexit vote. The S&P extended its longest losing streak since 1980 with its ninth consecutive decline on Friday.
Oil was (Read More….)
For the week the S&P 500 fell -0.7%, the DJIA was flat closing up +0.1%, and the Nasdaq dropped -1.3%. On Thursday morning of last week, I closed out all my active swing trading positions and have moved into an income fund that pays a monthly dividend and yields over 5% per year. For me, (Read More….)
Inflationary expectations are the expectations that consumers have concerning future inflation. If buyers expect higher prices in the future, they increase their demand in the present. This shifts the aggregate demand curve outward (to the right) which is good for the economy. For example, if the price of a house is expected to be higher (Read More….)
We have enough data to say that inflation is finally trending higher.
In case you are wondering why inflation moving higher is important, please review this.
The less volatile sticky CPI confirms the uptrend.
ObamaCare has exploded the cost of medical care higher.
Medical care commodities, which are prescription and (Read More….)
We all love rising wages, but it is rising wages that will cause the next recession and Bear market.
Below is a chart of labor costs (red) versus corporate profits (blue).
A clear pattern emerges from the chart above. Profits rise after a recession as labor costs fall. When the labor market reaches (Read More….)
The US national debt just broke above $19.5 trillion. Both Democrats and Republicans are to blame, but it is important to note that President Obama and Democrats increased the national debt more than all President’s before combined.
George Bush exploded the national debt by $3 trillion in response to an imploding economy and 911. (Read More….)
The overwhelming number of financial reports on the economy last week showed that the U.S. economy is continuing to slow.
The Federal Reserve has put markets on notice that they will be hiking rates by the end of the year. The Fed is not expected to hike rates next week at their September 21, 2016, (Read More….)
Fed’s Eric Rosengren was clear in his speech early Friday that rates need to be raised. Mr. Rosengren said that if we don’t raise rates soon, we could crash the economy. Mr. Rosengren said, “A failure to continue on the path of gradual removal of accommodation could shorten, rather than lengthen, the duration of this (Read More….)
The velocity of money has declined to the lowest level ever recorded, and the decline seems to be accelerating.
The quantity theory of money is based on the equation of exchange. This equation is: M x V = P x Q.
M equals the money supply. V is the velocity of money, or, the (Read More….)
Last month I dropped coverage of GDPNow after the GDP forecast was dropped by a huge amount right before the actual GDP release. Immediately after the GDP release, they release a Q3 GDP estimate that was at 3.7% which supported the Fed’s yearly lie that the economy was set to strengthen in the second half (Read More….)
The real GDP per capita shows just how rocky and unstable the U.S. economy continues to be since the Great Recession.
Most stock traders know what real GDP per capita is, but let’s quickly review for anyone who doesn’t.
GDP is the market value of all finished goods and services, produced within a country (Read More….)
The Markit PMI report on the UK shows manufacturing in the UK falling below the 50 mark.
Factory input prices have spiked higher as a result of the pound devaluation.
Folks this is a textbook definition of stagflation which is persistent high inflation combined with high unemployment and stagnant demand in (Read More….)
Last week was a big week for trader psychology with multiple economic reports showing the US economy was not in free fall. The Fed Funds Futures market is pricing in a 43.3% probability of a rate hike by December 14, 2016.
Below is a quick breakdown of the better than expected economic reports last week.
The rising Brazil real is hitting the Brazilian economy hard. A rising currency in a growing economy can indicate strength, but that is not the case with Brazil.
The Brazil is rising rapidly against the US dollar. The real is up +20% year-to-date.
Brazil is in a death-battle with inflation.
The Brazil real (Read More….)