Swing Trading For A Living From Home

How hard is it to swing trade for a living from home? Swing trading for a living is easier than you might think. Swing trading strategies are not hard but you need to know what the right tools are and how to use them.
Continue reading “Swing Trading For A Living From Home”

4 Weapons Of Institutional Traders That You Literally Cannot Hide From

Battles have been won and lost simply on the ability of one side to hide really well. Even a superior enemy can’t take you out if they can’t find you (which is no coincidence why we are guerilla stock traders). Had the U.S. Army had Vietnamese seeking missiles, Vietnam would be a U.S. owned property.
Continue reading “4 Weapons Of Institutional Traders That You Literally Cannot Hide From”

Inphi Corporation Has Honey Badger Large Players

Inphi Corporation has an incredible strong uptrending large players volume. What’s really amazing about it is that the stock has had big volatile swings but the large players volume just keeps on steadily rising.

On October 18, 2017, Jefferies Group set a price target of $50 which is 33.33% upside from its current price.
Continue reading “Inphi Corporation Has Honey Badger Large Players”

Institutional Buying and Selling Chart Called the TICK

The institutional buying and selling chart called the TICK lets us intelligently speculate on what institutional traders are doing. Institutional trading is highly secure and is a very guarded secret among institutional trading firms. The best amateur traders can do is to speculate on what institutional traders might be doing.

Trading volume normally will spike if large institutions place a big order. Along with the stock price’s change, you can make some guesses. For instance, if trading volume spikes relative to the stock’s average volume at the moment when the stock price also goes up, that may mean large investors are buying. Alternatively, if you notice a stock’s volume increase and the stock price drops, you might guess institutions are selling.

The drawback of this method is that volume can be impacted by external variables, like options expiration, short selling and window dressing.
Continue reading “Institutional Buying and Selling Chart Called the TICK”

Delta Airlines Stock Does Candle Over Candle Reversal

Delta Airlines stock has formed a candle over candle reversal on the chart. The large players volume is uptrending and the CMF has just broken above the zero line.

Five years ago, Delta Air Lines bought a refinery to protect against the risk of high crack spreads. In the wake of Hurricane Harvey, Delta’s move now looks brilliant as it totally insulated itself against crack spreads, something their competitors did not do.

Hurricane Harvey has pushed the crack spread up more than 100% at the beginning of September. The crack spread has since come down but it is still at a very elevated level as the chart below shows.
Continue reading “Delta Airlines Stock Does Candle Over Candle Reversal”

USANA Health Sciences Positive Divergence On Large Players Volume

USANA Health Sciences’ stock has formed a positive divergence on large players volume. The price action has faded over the last couple of weeks into what could be a bullish flag channel. I bought some USANA Health Sciences in my personal trading account this morning.

The 3 month change in institutional ownership is +8.02% which suggests institutional traders are accumulating this stock.

Creative Planning increased its stake in USANA Health Sciences by a whopping 528% in Q2. Victory Capital increased its stake in USANA by 124.7% in Q1. Eqis Capital acquired a new position in USANA in the Q2 worth $210,000. Nine Chapters Capital acquired a new position in USANA in Q1 worth $207,000. KCG Holdings Inc. acquired a new position in USANA in Q1 worth $248,000. Institutional investors and hedge funds own 46.3% of the company’s stock.

On August 18, 2017, USANA announced that it would expand in four European countries beginning mid-year 2018. These four new markets constitute of Romania, Germany, Italy, and Spain.

USANA Health Sciences was recently honored by inclusion in Utah Business Magazine’s Fast 50 list. This year marks the 10th consecutive time the company has made the list of fastest growing companies in Utah. USANA finished ranked number 49 on the list.

Continue reading “USANA Health Sciences Positive Divergence On Large Players Volume”

Why Clovis Oncology Stock Plunge Didn’t Hurt Me, Did It You?

Clovis Oncology stock dropped -7% on Friday but I only took a very small loss in the trade, did you?

You need to understand the Internet and what goes on with stock trades to protect yourself. First, I’ll show you why I was protected from larger traders targeting my position.

Take a look at this chart. Where do you think I set a mental stop?

Clovis Oncology stock

If you guessed here then you got it right:

You have to understand that large players as well as institutional traders monitor social network sites as well as non-protected and open free stock trading blogs like GuerillaStockTrading.com

There is a war going on beneath the surface that you may never see. I win that war more than I lose. What I’ll do is that I’ll often post stocks that have institutional trader accumulation and then I’ll watch larger players target a stock I blog about and then I joyfully watch them get crushed and stopped out for a loss. About 60% of the time that happens. Approximately 40% of the time that doesn’t happen. For the times that doesn’t happen, your stop loss will save you.

I’m under no illusion that all visitors on my website are here to go long my stock picks. I assume as much as 40% of my web visitors will attempt to short my picks. Many webmasters have put their stock picks behind a password protected site for just this reason. I don’t because I enjoy sticking it to short sellers most of the time.

My favorite tactic is to post about a stock I like but hold back a key chart or SEC filing that shows an institutional trader heavily accumulating the stock. I put forth a weaker case for why I think a stock is a good swing long entry. I watch the 1 minute chart for the usual short selling I see right after posting a stock pick. Then BAM! In comes a wave of buying and the short seller covers which pushes my stock up even higher, often on a gap up open and I sell and take the short sellers money.

There’s a constant battle going on of me beating short sellers and short sellers sometimes beating me. It goes on below the surface of every trade I post on GuerillaStockTrading.com It happens on every website that posts about stocks including mainstream financial media websites. You have to know and understand this and protect yourself with a clearly definable stop loss level. I did a lesson on setting a stop loss here. Try not to set a physical stop loss order on a trade (always set a mental stop loss order and then market order it when the level is hit) and never enter a long position the night before so that your order is filled automatically at market open the next day. Always move quickly with guaranteed time execution and a market order so that institutional traders and market makers with special access to unfilled orders can’t game your moves.

If a stock does a gap up open in your favor, sell immediately and book those profits.

These are a few trading pointers that you should already know and be doing. Remember, it’s dog eat dog. You are attempting to take money from someone who has no intention of giving you their money. They are attempting to reach into your trading account and take money from you. Hope for the best but always prepare for the worst.

Following these pointers will help you avoid big losses in trades like CLVS when they go against you.

Am I going to play the bounce in CLVS? No. There’s too many other juicy swing long trade setups elsewhere right now but that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t.

North Korea Nuclear Test and the Stock Market

The North Korea nuclear test over the long labor day weekend in the U.S. is exactly why we try and close out of all long positions over the weekend news cycle. Sunday’s nuclear test by North Korea had an estimated strength of 50 kilotons which is 3x larger than the nuclear bomb that destroyed Hiroshima in 1945.

The stock market had a big run-up over the last week and so the news of North Korea’s nuclear test could be a catalyst for profit taking and a market pullback; however, this is not the first time North Korea has conducted a nuclear test. North Korea has conducted six nuclear tests, in 2006, 2009, 2013, twice in 2016, and 2017.

2006 North Korea Nuclear Test

The 2006 North Korean nuclear test was on October 9, 2006. On October 20, 2006, Kim Jong-il allegedly said that he was “sorry” over his country’s nuclear test, and wished to return to talk with the United Nations. On October 31, 2006, North Korea agreed to rejoin six-nation disarmament talks.

At a meeting with President Vladimir Putin, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov stated that the power of the tests carried out was between 5 and 15 kilotons.

North Korea nuclear test site in 2006.

2009 North Korean Nuclear Test

The 2009 North Korean nuclear test was an underground detonation of a nuclear device on Monday, May 25, 2009. The estimated yield was 2.35 kilotons.

The 2009 North Korea nuclear test came against a backdrop of uncertainty about North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-il and who might succeed him. Mr. Kim suffered a stroke in August 2008 which prompted him to step up preparations to transfer power to one of his three known sons. Analysts believe the favorite son is his youngest, Kim Jong-un, who was in his mid-20s at the time.

North Korea 2009 nuclear test site.

2013 North Korea Nuclear Test

North Korea’s 2013 nuclear test occurred on February 12, 2013. It was an underground test. The USGS detected a 5.1 nuclear tremor. The nuclear blast had an estimated yield of 14 kilotons.

2013 Nuclear test site in North Korea.

2016 North Korea Nuclear Test

North Korea conducted two tests in 2016. The first test was done on January 6, 2016 and the second on September 9, 2016.

The earthquake caused by the January 2016 nuclear test was 5.1 magnitude and was estimated to have a yield of 6 to 9 kilotons. North Korea declared that the 2016 test was a “successful” demonstration of a hydrogen bomb. Many expressed skepticism because the explosion was too small. Bruce W. Bennett, senior defense analyst of the RAND Corporation told BBC News that “the bang they should have gotten would have been 10 times greater… So Kim Jong-un is either lying, saying they did a hydrogen test when they didn’t, they just used a little bit more efficient fission weapon – or the hydrogen part of the test really didn’t work very well or the fission part didn’t work very well.”

January 2016 North Korea nuclear test site.

The September 9, 2016 nuclear test occurred on the 68th anniversary of the founding of North Korea. The estimated yield was between 10 and 20 kilotons.

The UN Security Council finally figured out that China was supporting North Korea’s nuclear program. US Secretary of Defense Ash Carter stated in a press conference that “China has and shares an important responsibility for this development and has an important responsibility to reverse it”. China did not confirm its support for tougher sanctions against North Korea.

September 2016 North Korea nuclear test site.

2017 North Korea Nuclear Test

North Korea conducted a nuclear test on September 3, 2017. The USGS reported a 6.3 magnitude earthquare near North Korea’s Punggye-ri nuclear test site. This was the largest nuclear weapon test to date with a nuclear yield of between 50 to 100 kilotons. North Korea claimed that they detonated a hydrogen bomb that can be loaded onto an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).

September 3, 2017, North Korea nuclear test site.

Trumps Failed Talk Tough Policy

President Trump’s policy of “talking tough” has clearly failed.

Right. Well it happened Mr. President. It happened.


Source: BBC YouTube

Ok so Kim Jong Un made a wise decision to not fire missiles at Guam. If that was wise, what do you call detonating a hydrogen bomb and threatening to put it on an ICBM and fire it at the United States? Perhaps unwise? Talk about straining out a gnat yet swallowing a camel!

The only option left for President Trump is to move forward with a massive bombing and invasion of North Korea. I think this is what the Generals that are advising President Trump are saying. I think John Bolton’s appearance yesterday on Fox News is exactly what the Generals that advise the President are saying:


Source: Fox YouTube

Stock Market Action Tuesday

With all the North Korea drama as well as the fact that September is the worst month of the year for the stock market, a VIX play like UVXY is the way to go IMO. Don’t place a market order to buy UVXY automatically at the open. UVXY could do an open gap up and then fade down or do an open gap down and then fade up. Instead, we want to see what institutional traders and hedge funds with their ALGOs are going to do first. Within 15 minutes of market open, we should have a good idea if we want to go for a quick scalp trade in UVXY.

I’m Not Buying: Shorting the Dead Cat Bounce

I’m not buying that the pull back in markets is over so I’m taking out some insurance by going long TWM in my personal trading account.

Looking at the chart of low volatility safe stocks versus risk-on high beta stocks really puts today’s price action into perspective IMO:

Chart of low volatility safe stocks versus high beta stocks

Today’s up day doesn’t even register on the TSI which continues to fall.

You would think that with markets up so much today that we would have institutional traders buying. Not so according to the TICK. The TICK chart below, while not EOD which is what counts, shows the absence of broad-based institutional traders buying this market:

No institutional buying indicated by the TICK chart

Proshares UltraShort Russell 2000 Chart

The up move today in markets looks like an opportunity to short the market. The gambit is that markets will experience a dead-cat bounce. TWM looks like a good way to play this market.

The large players volume has been rising over the last couple of weeks and the Twiggs Money Flow confirms traders are shorting the market on rallies.

President Trump Sanctions China and Russia Over North Korea

President Trump made a big mistake today by putting sanctions against China and Russia over North Korea’s nuclear program. Trump’s actions don’t fix the problem, they just expand the conflict to include more countries who are pushed together in alliances against the U.S. You can read more about the new sanctions against China and Russia here.

What you don’t want to do is to end up being prey for larger predators that are shorting the market. I did a lesson on stock traders who are prey versus traders who are predators here that you should review.

If you have any insight or thoughts on trading this market leave your comment below.