Mexico Archives - GuerillaStockTrading.com

PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Short Play As Summer Ends

Large players volume is surging higher in the PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Short ETN DTO. This is the seasonally weak time of the year for oil as the summer driving season comes to an end and demand for oil drops. Short sellers often target oil at this time of year.

PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Short ETN

The surge in large players volume and the positive Twiggs Money Flow suggests the seasonal short oil trade is on for 2017. Playing the seasonally weak time of year by shorting oil is a bit more risky this year due to the increased probability that hurricanes will disrupt oil production in the Gulf of Mexico.

Russia Expels US Diplomats As Congress Brings US Closer to War

Russia expels US diplomats in retaliation for Congress increasing sanctions against Russia last week. Let’s just get it out of the way. Congress is stupid. Congress can’t act to help Americans who are suffering under a collapsing ObamaCare. Congress can’t help out Americans who are paying too much in taxes. Congress can’t even act to help the failing infrastructure across this country.

But Congress sure can act fast to impose sanctions against Russia. Congress may be doing the bidding of big US energy corporations.

Folks I’m on the verge of exercising my constitutional right to take up arms against my government. Alright so maybe that’s not a constitutional right but it should be one! I’m thinking of Thomas Jefferson saying, “a little rebellion now and then is a good thing.”

Sanctions never should have been put against Russia for Ukraine. John “traitor” McCain and others in Congress worked with George Soros and the Obama Administration and used NGOs to destabilize Ukraine and oust an elected leader. It is illegal for the US government to use tax payers money to overthrow an elected leader.

Those inside the US government did it to gain control of the oil pipelines in Crimea and to move NATO missiles into the country to point at Russia.

Ukraine is right on the doorstep of Russia. How would we feel if China used NGOs to overthrow the government of Canada or Mexico so that they could control the flow of oil from Canada into the US and point missiles at us from across the border?

President Trump Is a Colossal Failure On Dealing With Russia

President Trump should have ended sanctions against Russia and apologized for what the former Administration and those in Congress like John McCain had done. Instead, Trump got manipulated by the Establishment like a school boy going to the restroom without a hall pass.

Trump won’t do the right thing with Russia because he has to make it look like he’s not in collusion or something with Russia. Stupid idiot. He’s more concerned about himself and looking tough against Russia than he is about causing a war.

Idiots Run Our Country Now

From the President, to the Congress, their all a bunch of idiots.

Why am I so angry?

Russia Expels US Diplomats

CNBC reports that Russia just expelled US diplomats from its country in retaliation for increased sanctions put on Russia by Congress.

In this video I explain in greater detail why I’m mad at Congress and the Trump Administration.

Here is how Russian news is reporting what is happening to the Russian people:

[amp-optin id=’96403′]

Public Infrastructure Disaster as Sewage Becomes Chemical Attack

Public infrastructure is so bad that Border Patrol agents have been sent to the hospital suffering rashes from sewage seeping out of Mexico and into Southern California according to a report in the Washington Times (link above).

Mexico released 330,000 gallons of wastewater into the U.S. via the Tijuana River which amounts to a chemical attack against Border Patrol agents.

Was this just an accident? Mexico says it was. The timing of this so called “accident” is highly suspicious when it occurs precisely at a time when US and Mexico relations are the worst they have been in decades. But if you think this is only something that could happen in Mexico, think again.

Public Infrastructure Spending on Sewage and Waste Disposal

The U.S. is broke and government receipts from tax payers have plunged. As a result, spending on sewage and waste disposal is in free-fall.

Spending on sewage and waste disposal has plunged -23.5%. Civil engineers have been warning us for years that our public infrastructure is in desperate need of a major investment to fix failing wastewater facilities.

According to the 2017 report card released by the American Society of Civil Engineers, U.S. infrastructure earned a D , meaning it’s “poor and at risk” due to chronic under investment.

Effects of Climate Change, Who Cares? Trump Pulls US Out

President Trump has honored his campaign promise to pull the US out of these globalist run bureaucracies that tax Americans in the name of bad effects of climate change (see Washington Post link above). You go honeybadger Trump! Trump supporters finally have something to be happy about again.

Effects of Climate Change, Who Cares?

We all want a clean environment for ourselves and future generations but Democrats under the Obama Administration destroyed our economy and middle class in an attempt to control the effects of climate change. With $20 trillion in debt and most Americans struggling just to keep a roof over their heads and food on the table, it’s criminal that US citizens are taxed and those tax dollars are sent to a non-elected globalist run bureaucracy of socialists whose goal is to create a one-world order.

The message is not that we don’t care about the environment. The message is that America has been run into the ground by decades worth of rule under Republican and Democrat administrations that milked the US tax payer for hundreds of billions of dollars while crony environmental capitalists like Elon Musk made a fortune. The message is that free handouts from America are over because we are on the verge of bankruptcy after decades of high taxes and jobs shipped offshore to places like Mexico and China.

Wikileaks Vault 7 Shows President Trump In Danger Along With Stock Market

Help us spread the word about the growing America first movement conservative movement. We’re reaching thousands, help us reach millions by sharing this show with your family and friends.

A weekly Saturday financial show that attempts to predict market direction for the week ahead by looking at a variety of fundamental and technical charts. This week’s show features commentary on the plunge in oil markets, the largest CIA release in history called Vault 7, China’s increasing manipulation of our media in the US, Mexican George Ramos’ claim that the US is not “theirs” meaning “whites”, and the growing danger of a globalist soft coup against the Trump Administration.

What The Trump Win Means For Multinational Corporations

I predict that a Trump win means down for the economy at first, then upward as the US consumer strengthens from domestic job growth.

The down first move in the economy will come from inefficiencies caused by forcing multinational corporations to bring domestic production facilities back to the US or face steep tariffs.

Several traders have emailed me asking what stocks are good to short or go long in a Trump Administration.

Here is how a Trump win is likely to impact industries negatively.

IoT Industry

Tesla is the big driver of autonomous vehicles. Tesla is shipping all new Model 3 cars with the hardware for full autonomy. These autonomous cars are also electric cars. Tesla’s new Model 3, after tax credits, was priced for under $30,000. The Trump Administration is likely to be unfriendly towards companies like Tesla that benefited under the Democrats crony capitalism. The Trump Administration will likely offer few proposals for combating climate change. Trump will likely not pursue “green policies,” which means the discontinuation of “green” tax credits like the kind Tesla benefits from. Without these generous tax credits, Tesla automobiles will be more expensive which will slow purchases and slow the spread of the self-driving car.

Industrial IoT trends have been towards automation and replacing human workers with machines and robots. Trump has promised to renegotiate trade deals to bring manufacturing jobs back to the US. If IoT trends are taking away US jobs, it’s a pretty good bet that a Trump administration will advocate against industrial machines and robots that replace human labor.

Payments Industry

Trump has threatened to cut off remittance send from the US to Mexico until Mexico pays for a border wall. Trump is considering forcing Mexico to pay for the wall by invoking the US Patriot Act to cut off portions of the flow of money between the US and Mexico until Mexico makes a one-time $5 billion to $10 billion payment for the wall. Mexico is the largest receive destination for US remittances, cashing an estimated $25 billion in 2015. Western Union recently doubled the size of its retail network in the country, and MoneyGram unveiled a product in partnership with Walmart to make it easier and less expensive to send money from the US to Mexico. Cutting off the flow of money from the US to Mexico, even temporarily, would negatively impact Western Union and MoneyGram.

A Trump Administration will focus on bringing manufacturing back to America, specifically targeting firms like Ford and Apple to build products in the US rather than in Mexico or China. To implement a plan of bringing manufacturing back to the US, a Trump Administration will need to use tariffs and issue tougher manufacturing restrictions. This will likely cause a major decrease in international business spending as more businesses are either unable to make transactions due to restrictions or unwilling to pay the extra fees.

Technology Industry

Net neutrality is the concept that all data transmitted over the internet should be treated equally. Trump has not released official statements about the topic of net neutrality, but he has expressed distaste for President Obama’s approach. A Trump Administration could push to change the FCC’s net neutrality rules which would result in different price points for various data types and enable service providers to throttle data delivery.

In a Trump Administration, technology companies will likely be forced to change encryption policies to provide backdoor access to the US government. Trump supported the court order calling for Apple to facilitate access to an encrypted iPhone used by the San Bernardino shooter and asked consumers to boycott the company until it complied. Civil liberties groups are likely to take the Trump Administration to court. Requiring companies to provide backdoor access to the US government would violate consumers’ trust and likely lead to a decline in users of these companies’ products at first. Over time, though, consumers will likely not care.

Policy changes by a Trump Administration would harm tech companies that manufacture overseas, like IBM and Apple. Apple’s iPhone is likely going to become much more expensive for US consumers.

Apple and Google make more of their revenues overseas than within the US. Higher tariffs and protectionist policies could make it more expensive for tech companies to move and sell their products around the world. The broader use of trade tariffs would likely spur more countries to invest in domestic technology sectors within their own countries and to reduce their reliance on US technology providers, which would further hurt US tech multinational corporations.

Large mergers between service providers and digital content companies could face greater scrutiny. Trump said that the $85 billion AT&T and Time Warner merger would not be approved by a Trump administration because “it’s too much concentration of power in the hands of too few.” A Trump Administration could lead to a decrease in M&A activity.

The technology sector has been granting more H-1B immigration visas to highly skilled workers with STEM backgrounds.

A Trump Administration will likely include fees that will make it more expensive for companies to hire foreign workers through the H-1B visa program. If such fees are enacted, it would likely drive up wages for highly skilled IT talent even further across the technology sector.

E-Commerce

Protectionist policies and tariffs will increase the cost of goods. Trump wants to tax US companies that choose to manufacture goods overseas. Such a policy would harm retail companies that manufacture their goods overseas. Most retail companies will raise their prices to offset these tax penalties and the added cost of building manufacturing plants in the US.

E-commerce companies are pushing to deliver products to consumers as fast as possible. Think Amazon, and it’s Amazon Prime membership with free two-day delivery as well as its drones for remote area deliveries. This fast delivery involves automation within distribution centers. A Trump Administration will likely move to protect American workers from being displaced by machines thus forcing e-commerce companies to invest in traditional forms of labor over cheaper and faster new ones.

While a Trump Administration will be great for the US economy long term IMO, short term, I think we get a pullback in the economy while corporations adjust to higher costs and lower sales.

Guess Who Is On Trump’s Economic Team, SWEET!

Do you remember when the WSJ, CNN, CNBC, NBC, ABC, CBS, Bloomberg, Forbes, and Reuters ran stories at the start of the year about how no one even knows who was advising Trump on economic matters? They even went as far to say that Trump had no support of any economists.

That never sat right with me. I saw what Trump was doing at every level and how it would impact GDP. For example:

Border security = Eliminate illegal workers from coming into this country and competing with American citizens for jobs. Macroeconomic impact of illegal immigration discussed here. The mainstream media tried to convince the public Trump was a racist, bigoted, xenophobe who will send the police around knocking on doors to check your citizenship status.

Eliminate sanctuary cities = Eliminate sanctuary cities as they create lots of inefficiencies in the US economy including the murder of working Americans. Macroeconomics of rent control which is just one negative economic impact of sanctuary cities here. The mainstream media told everybody that Trump was a rich elitist Nazi who was attacking poor people who came to America for better opportunities and that illegals have only killed a few Americans.

Renegotiate international trade agreements = Look at all international trade agreements and renegotiate them so that they are fair to America and its workers. Penalize currency manipulators like China and Mexico. Increase exports and reduce imports as imports subtract from GDP. Macroeconomic analysis of trade deficits here and also here. The mainstream media tried to scare everyone into thinking that Trump was bringing in dangerous “nationalism” and that Trump will start a trade war which will crash the economy and stock market.

Significantly reduce refugees = Block all refugees coming from Syria and other Muslim countries if we cannot do a background check and make sure they are not radical Muslim terrorists coming to America to kill Americans. Terrorist attacks are bad for the economy and stock market. The OPEC cartel has been illegally manipulating the price of oil for decades (although Game Theory explains why they haven’t been too successful at it). Make OPEC countries take care of their neighborhood with all their ill-gotten gains over the years. Establish safe zones in Syria and elsewhere for Muslim refugees. A macroeconomic analysis of the OPEC cartel is discussed here. The mainstream media stirred up Muslims and other races by claiming Trump was a xenophobic racist on the order of Hitler and that he has a vision of a “white” Klu-Klux-Klan America.

Lower taxes = Lower taxes and institute supply side economics like Reagan did during the 80s. Higher taxes result in an increase in deadweight loss. Lowering deadweight loss will improve efficiencies in the economy and lead to both greater demand and supply. A macroeconomic analysis of taxation is here. The mainstream media stirred up class-warfare claiming that everybody should “pay their fair share” when it comes to taxes and that Trump’s tax plan will just allow the rich not to pay their fair share.

End ObamaCare = ObamaCare is a big tax on businesses. ObamaCare passed because Obama and Democrats lied to Congress and the American people about who was going to pay for it. It takes from the value producers and job creators, and gives to illegal immigrants and lower value producers, causing inefficiencies and disincentives in both hiring and working. Worse, it has lowered the quality of healthcare for everyone with long waiting lines and more doctors not accepting new patients. A macroeconomic analysis of ObamaCare is here. The mainstream media told everyone that Republicans just want to take away your healthcare so that they can get even richer.

Guess Who Is On Trump’s Economic Team?

I had to ask myself, was I just biased towards Trump and was I just twisting Trump’s positions into macroeconomics because I support him for President?

Fox News showed who is on Trump’s economic team. You won’t believe this. Dr. Peter Navarro is on Trump’s economic team, my favorite professor that I talk about here!

It now makes sense why I so clearly saw what Trump was doing while so many others did not. My economics professor is advising the Trump team! LOL.

Papa Giorgio posted a recent audio interview on Talk Radio with Peter Navarro:

MSNBC which supports Hillary Clinton had Peter Navarro on under the pretense of a serious talk about the economy. MSNBC then tried to talk about everything but the economy and trap Peter Navarro. Check out this heated exchange:

Folks, I don’t think Trump is going to win the Presidency. Most Americans are just not smart enough to understand economics. All they understand is that Hillary Clinton gives them a free iPhone and $1,500 to cause violence at Trump events. But I could be wrong. I never thought Trump would make it past Jeb Bush or Ted Cruz and he did.

Clintons NAFTA Helped Mexico At The Expense Of US Workers

Bill and Hillary Clinton’s NAFTA helped Mexico at the expense of US workers.

Economists against NAFTA in the 1990s warned everyone that all Mexico had to do was to devalue their currency to gain comparative advantage over the US for just about every product produced. The chart below shows Mexico has been devaluing their currency for more than a decade.

Ross Perot, back in 1992, warned everyone that NAFTA was bad for the US economy.

Both Hillary and Bill Clinton promised Americans that NAFTA was going to be good for jobs.

Here is a news report about what Bill Clinton did to get NAFTA passed.

Democrats are some of the biggest supporters of NAFTA and open borders because of the liberal-leaning University education establishment in this country. Left-leaning economists use Adam Smith and the Ricardian free trade model as justification for NAFTA-like trade agreements. Folks, Adam Smith and David Ricardo lived hundreds of years ago and had nowhere near the skill set that modern day economists have. Adam Smith and David Ricardo did not even know about supply and demand charts! Smith and Ricardo didn’t even have computers to crunch vast amounts of data to test economic models! Folks, left-leaning economists messed up not taking currency devaluation into account. I talk more about the huge mistake that left-leaning University economists made here. The other huge thing that Smith and Ricardo did not take into account was Game Theory. Game Theory is less than 100 years old, and yet it has vastly improved our understanding of quantifying the “it pays to cheat” motive. I talk more about Game Theory here.

Anyone who thinks voting a Clinton back in the White House is going to be good for the US economy and jobs; you’re being sold a bill of goods. It was the Clintons who negotiated and signed into law NAFTA, one of the worst international trade agreements in history. I’ve heard some people do a “pivot” and say well George Bush and Republicans supported NAFTA as well. That’s true. The establishment center of both parties sold America down the river; however, we’re not voting on putting another Bush back in the White House.

Illegal Immigration and Job Wage Stagnation In the US

Illegal immigration negatively impacts the hourly wage of US citizens. Illegal immigrants are pouring across the Mexico border, and we have no way of counting them but what we can do is track legal immigration from Mexico then double the number for a fuzzy-math estimate.

With legal immigration and an impenetrable border, economists working for the US government can control and set the upper limit on the number of immigrants competing with existing US citizens for jobs. With illegal immigration, the flow of people into this country that are competing with US citizens for jobs and resources can not be controlled.

With the flow of millions of illegal immigrants into our country, the labor supply of workers with less than a high school education significantly increases. That puts even more downward pressure on the wages of the poorest Americans. That, in turn, limits their ability to climb the economic ladder. Limiting the number of jobs available for American citizens is not a smart economic policy for the long-term economic development of our nation.

The following graph illustrates the effects of importing illegal workers on the American labor market.

The “Y” axis shows wages paid per hour for a job, and the “X” axis shows the quantity of labor available for that job. Equilibrium (thin black line) is where the supply and demand curves cross. In this hypothetical example, at $16 per hour, there are 33 applications for a particular job.

An increase in the supply-of-labor from illegal immigration shifts the supply curve down from S1 to S2 as available labor rises. A new market equilibrium is established (thin red line). The business listing the job can lower the hourly wage to $13 per hour as there are now 45 applications for the job.

Without illegal immigration, the business would have to offer $19 per hour (w1) to get 45 applications for the job because the higher the hourly wage offered, the more people would apply for the job. The loss (shaded area) from illegal immigration, therefore, is w1 – S2 = -$6 per hour lost.

Macroeconomics and the supply and demand graph above proves that the effect of illegal immigration is to shift the supply-of-labor curve downward, causing it to intersect the demand-for-labor curve at an equilibrium point with a much lower wage level and a higher quantity-of-labor level. This shift signifies the willingness of illegal immigrants to perform more labor for lower wages than American citizens. This effect on the labor market affects all laborers, both illegal and legal.

Lower and lower wages caused by more and more illegal immigrants means consumers have less purchasing power because they make less per hour. Businesses will have to lower prices to sell their goods and services which creates a negative feedback loop and deflation. Remember, deflation is a decrease in general price levels throughout an economy. Massive illegal immigration during the Obama Administration explains in part why the Federal Reserve is having trouble getting inflation going (CPI) even after spending trillions of dollars of tax payers money to boost the economy.

But I Heard That Americans Are Unwilling To Take The Jobs Mexicans Take

It is not true that Americans are “unwilling to take the jobs” in question. The issue is not whether Americans are or are not willing, but at what hourly wage level. In a free market, American citizens have the right not to take a low paying job. In a free market, having some jobs go unfilled because businesses are not willing to pay higher wages is a legitimate outcome.

Illegal immigrants should not be able to compete with American citizens for jobs because their presence in our country is a violation of the law. The number of people granted citizenship in the US has to be at a controlled rate else our economy will crash under the weight of a deflationary spiral. This dire outcome of a deflationary crash is not an opinion but instead fact based on macroeconomics.

We have to get our immigration and borders under control else America’s shining beacon of light will burn out.