Tag: Recession

Swing Trading With The SPHB:SPLV Chart


The SPHB:SPLV ratio chart is showing a compelling setup for small cap stocks. The SPHB:SPLV ratio chart tracks high volatility (high beta with tendency to be small cap) stocks to low volatility (tendency to be large cap) stocks. This ratio chart is another barometer for the risk on versus risk off trade. In a risk Read More »

High Yield Debt Surges Higher Which Favors the Bulls


Following high yield debt is an excellent way to time market swings. A high yield bond (non-investment-grade bond, speculative-grade bond, or junk bond) is a bond that is rated below investment grade. These bonds have a higher risk of default and so they pay a higher yield than better quality bonds. Bonds rated below BBB− Read More »

Janet Yellen Testimony Economy Strong Enough For Rate Hikes


The US economy is healthy enough to absorb gradual rate increases and the reduction of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, Fed Chair Janet Yellen testimony before Congress on July 12, 2017. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen told Congress on Wednesday that the bank hopes to keep raising a key interest rate and also intends to Read More »

Corporate Tax Revenue By Year Is Down Suggesting Economy Is Weakening


If the economy is booming tax revenues rise as companies generate greater revenue, resulting in them paying more in taxes. If the market is rolling over, the effectiveness of corporate taxation drops as companies close up shop and stop paying taxes. Corporate Tax Revenue By Year Shows Economy is Rolling Over In 2014 tax revenues Read More »

Low Gas Prices Are Not Good For Consumers or the US Economy


Low gas prices are not good for consumers or the US economy. Remember back in late 2015 and early 2016 when oil prices fell which pushed down the price of gas? We had headlines in the MSM that lower oil prices were a big boost to consumers and so consumer spending was going to rise. Read More »

Sign Housing Market Is Teetering On the Edge of Collapse


The housing market is in a bubble. I have been saying that for about a year now. The average selling price of a house is around $377K. Right before the housing collapse in 2007, the average selling price was around $330K. New signs are emerging that the housing bubble is dangerously close to popping. Housing Read More »

United States Economy Teetering On Collapse


The United States economy is teetering, despite what the stock and job markets are saying. The US economy is consumption-centric. Growth in the current recovery has focused on three sectors that have fed through to consumption in its various forms: autos, energy, and financial services. The scariest set of financial indicators to emerge in decades Read More »

David Stockman Contra Corner

David Stockman Contra Corner Interview Warns Recession Is Coming


David Stockman contra corner man, was interviewed by Boom Bust where he warned of the enormous storm coming that will slam into Wall Street. My notes from the interview are below. I think the odds by the day are raising that we’re going to truly have a government shutdown. Expect the mother of all debt Read More »

Amazon Stock Price Moving Higher As Monopoly Expands



Why Tony Dwyer Is Wrong That Stocks Are a Terrific Buy


Tony Dwyer of Canaccord Genuity says that there’s this narrative out there that the yield curve flattening is telling you that the economy is closer to recession and the stock market is in trouble. Tony Dwyer disagrees and thinks the yield curve shows that now is a terrific time to buy stocks (link to CNBC Read More »

Interest Rate Policy May Be Too Tight As Evidenced By Inflation


The Federal Reserve shouldn’t be tightening policy with the evidence so clear that it’s falling well short of its inflation mandate. The interest rate policy is wrong because their math is wrong. Right now the Fed’s inflation goal is 2 percent. Why so low? Fed rate hikes are keeping inflation too low and possibly will Read More »

Economic News: Economy is Rapidly Slowing


In an economic news report posted on YouTube (link above) by X22 Report, it cites how the average Millennial has less than $1,000 saved to buy a home. Not only do I think that’s true, I would add that the average Millennial has zero money saved for retirement. Economic News Forecasts Recession Most younger people Read More »