We know what Trump is bringing to the globalists brawl that has already begun with shots like China threatening a trade war against the US. Globalists are not going just to roll over quietly for a Trump Administration.
Lisa Haven thinks that globalists could crash the US economy in response to Trump’s win. Lisa thinks globalists could even try to assassinate Trump.
I think Lisa Haven is a bit too far on the side of paranoia, but I like hearing alternative views and some of the excellent points she makes. Regardless if you agree with Lisa Haven or not, one thing is clear that we can all agree on. Stock prices are not up because of fundamentals but on risky speculation on a Trump win which begs the question. Are we being set up for a big stock market crash?
Albert writes, “Hi Lance; you had another great show tonight. A couple of questions if you don’t mind. First is, I read on your website that you think STM might be a good long term trade. Aside from margin issues (if one doesn’t buy on margin), do you think it’s still a good long-term stock even though it jumped up 17% on bad earnings?
Second, you said you temporarily jumped into a dividend paying income fund. I take it those still have downside risks? And if interest rates start to rise those type of funds would not be good to stay in? Thanks.”
Hi, Albert. I think STM is a good long term hold for several years but watch out for share dilution and stick with a stop loss.
You are correct about dividends and rising rates, so you want to stay away from bond income funds IMO. I like a dividend player that would
invest in something like small businesses with significant growth potential. The growth of small businesses can outpace the growth of inflation and rate hikes. The danger is if rate hikes negatively impact the economy, aren’t small businesses the most susceptible and likely to crash? Yes, but what do we know about this rising rates environment? Rates will be raised unbelievably slow (think Fed dot plot) so even moderate growth from small businesses will easily outpace the rate hikes.
Dividends also keep a lot of short sellers out of the stock because if anyone is short the stock, they must pay the dividend (as opposed to collecting the dividend if long the stock).
There’s a Halloween special sign up right now where you get 20% off for a one year Premium membership.
After you sign up, go to the monthly dividend payers section.
You can research high-income monthly dividend stocks. There’s energy, gold, silver, and so on. My preference is something that can outpace coming inflation and hence tied to the growth of small businesses.
I will be talking more about my favorite dividend stock next week.
Thanks Albert for your kind words about the show. Your kind words mean so much.
Falling profit margins typically precede a recession. Last week, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released the latest profit margin numbers that clearly point to an oncoming recession.
Notice how the last two recessions (shaded areas) came within six months of a -20% change from a year ago (red line). The only thing that is different this business cycle is the record low-interest rate. In other words, low-interest rates are what is propping up the economy right now. Not exactly a revelation but something you should watch carefully. If the Federal Reserve hikes rates too soon, we could go into a recession quickly.
Democrats do not want Yellen to raise interest rates before the election. Barney Frank recently told the Fed board not to risk destabilizing markets and perhaps the broader economy before the Presidential Election. The Federal Reserve is supposed to be independent and politically neutral in their rate hike decisions.
Why are Democrats so afraid? Hillary Clinton and Democrats are bragging about how much Obama improved the U.S. economy and how strong it is now. Are Democrats so scared of a little quarter point rate hike because they know how hollow the “Obama recovery” really is?
Deutsche Bank may be on the verge of collapse. Last week Deutsche Bank reported Q2 2016 earnings of 20 million euros which is a 98% drop in earnings year-over-year.
In 2015, Deutsche Bank announced its first full year of loss since the 2008 recession.
Deutsche Bank’s stock is down -60% over the last year meaning that the bank is close to collapse.
Deutsche Bank’s shares now trade for two-thirds less than their tangible book value, a steeper discount than even during the depths of the financial crisis.
Beyond Germany, few stock traders care if Deutsche Bank collapses. The problem with Deutsche Bank collapsing is its enormous derivatives portfolio valued at 42 trillion euros! To put in perspective, the entire EU (all 28 member states) has an estimated GDP value of 14.3 trillion. Deutsche Bank’s 42 trillion euro derivatives portfolio is about three times the size of the entire EU!
One might think that with such a high exposure to the derivatives market, Deutsche Bank would have already collapsed. The reason Deutsche Bank has not collapsed is because of something called netting. For every derivative position Deutsche Bank holds, they hold another position in the opposite direction, so they roughly cancel each other out. At least that’s what Deutsche Bank is reporting that they are doing. Whether that is true or not remains to be seen. Why would anyone hedge their longs with shorts in a 1:1 ratio? You would never make any money from trading, and you would slowly lose on slippage. The OCC tracks netting on U.S. banks and does, in fact, show that even with netting, net current credit exposure (NCCE) has been rising rapidly since 2014.
When Deutsche Bank collapses, it is going to be the explosion heard around the world, and it will be a disaster many times greater than the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008.
US Derivatives Exposure
The big U.S. banks have higher exposures to derivatives than Deutsche Bank. As of June 30, 2016, below are U.S. banks with the largest derivative exposures.
Citigroup has amassed the largest stockpile of interest-rate swaps as they bet on central bank rate changes.
Five U.S. banks hold 93% of all derivatives: Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Morgan Stanley. The total value of these derivatives is $247 trillion (notional).
Morgan Stanley has $31 trillion in derivatives with $1.6 trillion (notional) in credit derivatives. What is scary is that Morgan Stanley is back to speculating in the same credit derivatives market that took down AIG in 2008. I don’t think Morgan Stanley necessarily wants to speculate in credit derivatives but with revenue flat the last few years, they may be getting more desperate to prop up their stock price. Morgan Stanley’s stock is down more than -25% over the last year.
Most traders in the U.S. don’t care about Morgan Stanley’s risky credit derivatives portfolio, but they should. Morgan Stanley has more than 15,770 retail brokers managing $404 billion of other people’s money (mom and pop savings, retirees, pensions, retirement accounts, etc.cause). Morgan Stanley’s risky credit derivatives position poses a huge threat to the investing community in my opinion.
Banks and Financial Firms Will Not Disclose Information Until It’s Too Late
If you are waiting for banks and financial firms to disclose risks and even how much they were bailed out from the last time they made risky credit derivative bets, don’t.
To survive the 2007-2009 Wall Street crash, Morgan Stanley received an injection of $9 billion from the Japanese bank, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group; a $10 billion injection from the U.S. government and over $2 trillion in secret, cumulative, below-market-rate loans from the Federal Reserve. According to data obtained by Bloomberg News following a multi-year court battle to obtain the information from the Federal Reserve, Morgan Stanley’s one-day secret outstanding loans from the Fed peaked at $107.3 billion on September 29, 2008.
The public would have never known about these secret loans shoring up Wall Street’s reckless conduct and hubris and obscene bonuses except for the court battle of Bloomberg News and legislation secured by Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont requiring a Fed accounting.
Credit Derivatives Exposure On the Rise In the US
The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency reports some scary facts in their most recent quarterly OCC report.
– Insured U.S. commercial banks and savings associations reported trading revenue of $5.8 billion in the first quarter of 2016… $1.9 billion lower (24.9 percent) than a year earlier. [In my opinion, when trading revenues are down, trading divisions take on more risks in a desperate attempt to meet quotas like buying riskier credit derivatives as the data points below confirm].
– Credit exposure from derivatives increased in the first quarter of 2016. Net current credit exposure (NCCE) increased $65.1 billion, or 16.5 percent, to $460.1 billion.
– Notional derivatives increased $12.0 trillion, or 6.6 percent, to $192.9 trillion.
– Derivative contracts remained concentrated in interest rate products, which represented 76.3 percent of total derivative notional amounts.
Measuring credit exposure in derivative contracts involves identifying those contracts where a bank would lose value if the counterparty to a contract defaulted. The total of all contracts with positive value (i.e., derivative receivables) to the bank is the gross positive fair value (GPFV) and represents an initial measurement of credit exposure. The total of all contracts with negative value (i.e., derivative payables) to the bank is the gross negative fair value (GNFV) and represents a measurement of the exposure the bank poses to its counterparties.
GPFV increased by $0.8 trillion (26.6 percent) in the first quarter of 2016 to $3.8 trillion, driven by a 29.9 percent increase in receivables from interest rate and FX contracts. Because interest rate contracts make up 76.2 percent of total notional derivative contracts, changes in interest rates drive credit exposure in derivative portfolios. Declines in interest rates tend to increase exposure. This effect has increased in recent years, as the maturity profile of interest rate derivatives has increased, making credit exposure more sensitive to changes in longer-term rates.
Credit risk exposure increased a whopping 26.6% in Q1 2016. Much of that increased credit risk exposure is coming from bets on Federal Reserve rate hikes. If interest rates go up, credit risk exposure in derivative positions goes down. If interest rates go down, credit risk exposure goes up. In other words, most of the bets in the derivatives market are on interest rates rising. Better hope Janet Yellen doesn’t have to lower interest rates!
Credit Default Swaps Dwarf All Other Forms of Derivatives
Credit default swaps dwarf any other form of credit derivative trading.
The notional amount for the 54 insured U.S. commercial banks and savings associations that sold credit protection (i.e., assumed credit risk) was $3.6 trillion, up $206.4 billion (6.0 percent) from the fourth quarter of 2015. The notional amount for the 50 banks that purchased credit protection (i.e., hedged credit risk) was $3.8 trillion, $224.9 billion higher (6.3 percent) than in
the fourth quarter of 2015.
It is interesting that many people are reporting having received a letter from their credit card company informing them that their interest rate is going up from 19.9% to 25% in August 2016. Some people have even reported receiving credit limit increase letters too. How kind of these bankers to go long credit default swaps while raising your credit limit and interest rate to insane levels at the same time.
Folks derivatives are dark financial products that cause excessive risk taking that ultimately leads to disaster. I have little doubt that the next global financial crisis will, at its core, once again involve speculative derivatives betting.