The central bank balance sheet reduction could crash the market according to David Quintieri (link above). The Fed is engaging in its most dangerous policy move in the last 10 years with its simultaneous moves to raise rates and to unwind its $4.5 trillion balance sheet.
One of the things I don't understand about this unwinding move from the Fed is who will buy all that toxic debt? If memory serves me correctly, most of the Fed's balance sheet is garbage toxic debt (mortgage-related securities) that no one wanted to buy and to divert a complete crash of the US economy almost 10 years ago, the Fed swooped in and bought this radioactive toxic debt. Who would want to buy this debt?
Central Bank Balance Sheet Reduction
My own economic ignorance aside as to who would be willing to buy this toxic debt from the Fed, the Fed has never before had to find buyers to shrink its balance sheet. The unwinding of the Fed's balance sheet is going to be a big challenge IMO.
Current US law states that the Federal Reserve has to be reimbursed by the US Treasury once it realizes the losses by selling the bonds. Interest rates are going up so central bank balance sheet reduction must take place. If the Fed sells a bond at a loss, that loss must be reimbursed to the Fed by the US Treasury. Congress has to send the Fed the money it lost. Congress needs to raise the debt ceiling to a high enough level to reimburse the Fed for its losses on the toxic mortgage backed securities it sells. In other words, central bank balance sheet reduction adds to the national debt.