S&P Retail SPDR Market Prediction Path Moved Lower

The S&P Retail ETF XRT was revised lower today on the Symmetrical Triangle breakdown. XRT broke down out of the Symmetrical Triangle pattern after J.C. Penny cut its 2017 earnings forecast on Friday, October 27, 2017. J.C. Penney cut its forecast for 2017 adjusted earnings to 2 cents to 8 cents per share from 40 cents to 65 cents. The breakdown today on XRT wasn’t just about J.C. Penny. Citigroup downgraded Macy’s stock from “Neutral” to “Sell” on Monday, October 30, 2017, citing poor performance from the company’s retail business as the primary reason. Citi analyst Paul Lejuez said that Macy’s has seen significant pressure on sales/margins for several years, and that they no longer make much money as a retailer.
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Clovis Oncology Symmetrical Triangle Setup on Barclays Coverage

Clovis Oncology is a good setup off uptrend line support within a Symmetrical Triangle pattern. Large players volume is rising as the stock moves into the apex of the triangle pattern.

The big news about Clovis Oncology stock is that Barclays initiated coverage on October 23, 2017, with an Overweight rating and a price target of $105 which represents 35.48% upside from its current price. Analysts ratings at Barclay’s are the most followed on Wall Street because of their excellent track record of hitting winners.
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BioDelivery Sciences Symmetrical Triangle On Rising Large Players Volume

Biodelivery Sciences is in a Symmetrical Triangle pattern on rising large players volume.

There 5 Buy ratings on Biodelivery Sciences and 1 Hold rating. The consensus price target is $4.50 which represents 52.54% upside from the current price.
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Granite Construction Does Symmetrical Triangle Breakout On Pocket Pivot

Granite Construction stock did a Symmetrical Triangle breakout today on a bullish pocket pivot signal. The breakout has occurred after the company has reported a string of contract wins over the last couple of weeks.

Analysts love Granite Construction stock. Based on their most recently released notes to investors, 6 analysts have a rating of outperform, 4 analysts have a rating of “buy”, 1 analyst has a rating of “hold”, and no analysts rate the stock as either “underperform” or “sell”.

Granite Construction reported earnings today which missed. The company reported EPS of $0.35 versus the $0.60 estimate. However, revenue beat coming in at $762.9 million versus the $678.4 million estimate.

Strong growth is taking place in Granite Construction in 2017. The company reports increased revenue opportunities and a backlog that has crossed above $4 billion for the first time in Granite’s 95 year history!

Granite is one of the largest construction companies in the US but its market cap is only $2.24 billion as of August 1, 2017. That’s a good valuation when you consider that the company’s market cap is about half of its current backlog.

Contracts are pouring in to the company. Here are some of the most recent contract wins:

Jul-31-17 = Granite Awarded $441 Million Joint Venture Design-Build Transit Project in Washington D.C.
Jul-31-17 = Granite Awarded $318 Million Bridge Project in Brooklyn
Jul-27-17 = Granite Awarded $20 Million Dam Project in Northern California
Jul-18-17 = Granite Awarded $855 Million Joint Venture Design-Build Highway Project in Texas
Jun-09-17 = Granite Construction Wins $36M Contract from Caltrans
Jun-07-17 = Granite Awarded $54 Million Highway Rehabilitation Project in Alaska

Can you imagine how big Granite Construction’s backlog will grow if we get a $1 trillion infrastructure spending program?

Public transportation and infrastructure spending overall remains steady and stable, and it will increase significantly in Washington and California.

California’s $52 billion SB 1 transportation bill was passed in April of 2017. The recently enacted 2017-2018 California budget included an increase in state transportation capital funding from less than $2 billion last year to more than $4 billion this year. Here’s the crazy thing. The $4 billion backlog does not include any SB 1 projects yet because California has said that almost half of the $4 billion will not be available for projects until the first six months of 2018.

Spending Needed To Upgrade Infrastructure

The $1 trillion infrastructure spending is only a fraction of what is needed to repair America’s aging infrastructure. The ASCE published this graphic for how much money is needed now to repair this country’s infrastructure. Note: All numbers are in billions.

Source: ASCE

The ASCE estimates that we will need to spend $4.59 trillion to update our old infrastructure.

Granite Construction Stock

Huge buying took place today after the earnings report. Notice the bullish pocket pivot (blue dot) today. The rising large player volume as the stock was dropping totally predicted the big breakout move today.

Unfortunately GVA is not a good setup right now. Prices have extended too far to the upside. For a better entry, add it to your watch list and wait for a consolidation. This market is too dangerous to be chasing any overvalued stock.

What are your thoughts on infrastructure spending and do you have an infrastructure stock you’re tracking? Leave your comments below. To find more good stocks to buy check out this lesson.

Gold Price Forecast of $1500 For First Time Since 2013

The gold price forecast puts gold at $1,500, a level not hit since 2013. The $1,500 forecast was made by the credible Frank Holmes of US Global Investors and not some perma-bear gold bug as reported by MarketWatch here.

Already in 2017, gold prices are up close to 8% which is what they gained for all of last year.

Gold is benefiting from the weakening U.S. dollar. In other words, President Trump’s policy agenda being derailed by ObamaCare is acting as one of the biggest catalysts for gold.

Gold Price Chart

I like to chart gold with a Renko chart using a box size of ATR 14. A Renko chart removes a lot of the noise inherent in a normal gold price chart. Remember, gold is girlie. Gold is always a drama play. The Renko chart helps remove a lot of that drama-noise on the chart so that you can better see the underlying trend. We are currently working on a 3 box reversal which is a bullish signal for gold.

Simple Gold Trading Strategy

Rather than try and pick high-quality gold mining stocks, I prefer the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners exchange-traded fund (GDXJ). Just last month, Van Eck announced that it was expanding the criteria determining which stocks could be included in the popular gold mining ETF because the ETF had gotten too big as investors have piled into the fund so far in 2017.

The chart doesn’t look pretty. Large Players volume and the Twiggs Money Flow looks weak. The chart pattern I do like is a Symmetrical Triangle that appears to be forming. Remember, gold is never just a technical play. The catalyst for gold is always drama and we have plenty of that right now.

Gold Price Forecast Justified

Is the gold price forecast of $1,500 justified? I think so because gold is how you play drama.

There’s so much drama going on that even John McCain left the hospital so he could use his brain-cancer to try and push forward his own agenda. That’s drama folks. Or course John McCain didn’t really make anything better, he just stirred up more drama. Meanwhile, the debt ceiling limit is fast approaching and no one is talking about it because their too busy arguing over ObamaCare that is completely collapsing now.

The FBI and Mueller, at the bequest of the Establishment, are doing a Russia witch hunt against Trump while Trump’s own Attorney General Jeff Sessions recused himself of the Russia investigation AFTER being appointed effectively tricking the President. Drama!

President Trump has already taken the US to the brink of war with Russia probably, in part, to prove he’s not in collusion with Russia.

Then you have President Trump using Twitter to bash his political enemies every chance he gets putting drama on top of drama.

All this drama bodes well for gold and the signs are that it is likely going to get worse so I’ve picked up some GDXJ in my personal trading account. You guys know me, I’m in and out for a quick gain if I can get it.

Are you thinking about buying gold? Leave your comments below.

Vulcan Materials Stock Symmetrical Triangle On Possible Earnings Beat

Vulcan Materials stock has formed a Symmetrical Triangle on a possible earnings beat when they report on August 1, 2017. I like the chart setup enough to go long this stock in my personal trading account.

Vulcan Materials News

Kiplinger’s Personal Finance called Vulcan Materials the best stock in Alabama (here). Kiplinger writes:

Vulcan is trading near an all-time high thanks to a run-up in the stocks of building-materials companies following the presidential election. And if the current administration goes forward with its plan to spend $1 trillion to revamp the nation’s infrastructure, few companies stand to benefit more than Vulcan.

Vulcan Materials Stock Chart

VMC shows a beautiful positive divergence between the Effective Volume study of large players volume and the price chart. The Twiggs Money Flow does not support the large players volume but does appear to be rounding up.

Prices have been consolidating lately and the volatility has been reduced. The chart is very close to forming a momentum squeeze setup.

The TSI has given a beautiful buy signal on a bullish cross.

There is a support zone below the current price at $126.44, a stop order could be placed below this zone.

The chart looks like a good setup as we head into the August 1, 2017 earnings report which is likely to beat IMO. This is a short-term swing long trade with a sell either before, or the day after, earnings.

What do you think about Vulcan Materials stock? Leave your comment below.


Marriott International Setting Up Symmetrical Triangle Breakout

The stock chart of Marriott International looks to be setting up into a Symmetrical Triangle after RBC Capital reiterated its Outperform rating on June 12, 2017. RBC Capital raised its price target to $109 from $92.

Marriott International Stock Chart

Notice the bullish Pocket Pivot (blue dot on the chart above) in the apex of the Symmetrical Triangle pattern. This increases the odds of a breakout. The Effective Volume shows that large players have been increasingly buying MAR as it consolidates. This positive divergence between large players and the price of the stock is bullish.

Marriott International looks like a good long entry. We see reduced volatility while prices have been consolidating in the most recent period. There is a resistance zone just above the current price starting at 104.13. Right above this resistance zone may be a good entry point. There is a support zone below the current price at 102.42, a stop order could be placed below this zone.



B2Gold Corp Testing Symmetrical Triangle Resistance

B2Gold Corp is testing Symmetrical Triangle resistance for a possible breakout on building tensions in North Korea and Syria, and the slowing U.S. economy.

B2Gold Corp Stock Chart

BTG looks like a good setup on a move higher in gold. Prices have been consolidating lately in a bullish flag pattern. There is a resistance zone just above the current price starting at 2.77. Right above this resistance zone may be a good entry point. We have also had a Pocket Pivot signal on June 16, 2017 which is another bullish sign.

The Twiggs Money Flow shows some accumulation taking place into the consolidation move.

On the Effective Volume indicator, we don’t have as many large buyers as I’d like to see but that could change quickly if a flight to safety into gold takes place and B2Gold Corp does a Symmetrical Triangle breakout.