With the stock market hitting all-time highs, everybody wants to know if we are in a giant bubble.
You can’t trade and make money if you’re not in the market. If the fear that we are in a bubble is keeping you out, then you’re not making money.
The honey badger doesn’t care. The honey (Read More….)
Traders get confused by price action in bonds relative to the stock market because of perma-bear websites like ZeroHedge. Folks, the most reliable signal for how bonds impact the stock market is very simple.
Look At Bond Prices
Your primary research into bonds should always start with bond prices first, then yields second. A bond (Read More….)
Whether we are talking about individual stocks, the stock market, or the economy, when you’re wrong just admit it and then move on. The goal is to make money, not to be right 100% of the time so you can stroke your ego.
AM TV and Peter Schiff predicted that the Federal Reserve could not (Read More….)
Illegal immigration negatively impacts the hourly wage of US citizens. Illegal immigrants are pouring across the Mexico border, and we have no way of counting them but what we can do is track legal immigration from Mexico then double the number for a fuzzy-math estimate.
With legal immigration and an impenetrable border, economists working (Read More….)
The stock market is being taken down by the rising US dollar. Check out the chart below of UUP and the S&P 500.
Our largest trading partner Canada is devaluing the Canadian dollar.
Our second largest trading partner China is devaluing the Yuan which is pushing up the US dollar. In overnight trading, (Read More….)
The overwhelming number of financial reports on the economy last week showed that the U.S. economy is continuing to slow.
The Federal Reserve has put markets on notice that they will be hiking rates by the end of the year. The Fed is not expected to hike rates next week at their September 21, 2016, (Read More….)
Both the Fed and Wall Street analysts are forecasting a 3% GDP growth rate for Q3. After yesterday’s release of many economic reports, I would put the GDP growth rate for Q3 at 1.5% at most. Let’s look at yesterday’s economic releases on the charts.
The NY Empire manufacturing index came in at -2%. That (Read More….)
I’ve been asking traders what causes low-interest rates. The consensus is that the Federal Reserve is what causes low-interest rates. That is not entirely true and believing that could be harmful to your trading account.
Some 250 years ago, David Hume was the very first economist to explain what causes low-interest rates.
The three things (Read More….)
Donald Trump has correctly criticized the Federal Reserve for keeping interest rates low for Democrats. Yellen’s allegiance to Democrats is something I’ve been talking about for more than a year now.
Janet Yellen herself is a Democrat who was appointed by Obama. Remember how Yellen was questioned about why she was meeting with Democrats more (Read More….)
The increased volatility that we have been waiting for finally arrived last week as institutional traders clean house as they return from summer vacations. Corporate debt offerings surged as company’s looked to roll over financing costs ahead of a potential Fed rate hike by the end of the year. The August ISM Services reading hit (Read More….)
Falling profit margins typically precede a recession. Last week, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released the latest profit margin numbers that clearly point to an oncoming recession.
Notice how the last two recessions (shaded areas) came within six months of a -20% change from a year ago (red line). The only thing that is (Read More….)
The internet is buzzing about the latest Retail Sales report that shows a gradual slowdown in consumer spending. The buzz centers around the question of how can the S&P 500 be hitting all-time highs when retail sales continue to trend downward?
Some are speculating that the Democrat and Republican Establishments are working together to (Read More….)
The Federal Reserve is making a very public and very embarrassing reversal. The latest example is that of Fed hawk Bullard.
On March 27, 2016, Fed hawk Bullard (voter) said that April and June are “live meetings” for the Fed to raise rates. In a Nikkei interview, Bullard said, “The US economy is growing at (Read More….)