Oversupply is what is driving the crude oil price chart lower. In an article from Reuters (link above), it states that oil has hit a 6 month low on rising supply and slowing demand.

Crude Oil Price Chart

Crude Oil Price Chart

Last year I put the fair market value of oil in the mid to high 30’s. My logic last year holds true today. The oversupply of oil isn’t much better than when the price hit $26 a barrel back in February 2016.

Game Theory quantifies how it pays to cheat and it’s why OPEC production cuts always end up falling apart. We have Libya and Nigeria, who were exempt from production cuts, increasing output to take advantage and grab greater market-share.

We also have weak U.S. economic reports coming from retail sales, core inflation, and industrial production which suggests the economy is slowing and therefore oil demand will drop.