Last month I dropped coverage of GDPNow after the GDP forecast was dropped by a huge amount right before the actual GDP release. Immediately after the GDP release, they release a Q3 GDP estimate that was at 3.7% which supported the Fed’s yearly lie that the economy was set to strengthen in the second half of the year.
GDPNow is just another Federal Reserve perception manipulation tool in my opinion. Last month, I felt I had enough data to support that argument, and so I removed the GDPNow forecast chart from the right sidebar of the GuerillaStockTrading.com blog.
Today I peeked in on the GDPNow forecast just for the heck of it.
After the massive bogus GDPNow upward revision supporting Yellen’s assertion that the second half of the year was going to be so much stronger, now the GDPNow forecast is slowly being lowered, LOL.
Traders got burned on the Q2 GDPNow forecast where the Fed plunged the forecast right before the official Q2 GDP release. Then traders got burned on the GDPNow forecast where they raised it to +3.7%. I feel that removing the GDPNow forecast from the blog was the right call.
The Wall Street Journal recently published a blistering article entitled Years of Fed Missteps Fueled Disillusion With the Economy and Washington in which the Wall Street Journal writes…
The Fed’s struggles will be on display from Friday to Sunday when it gathers for an annual retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyo. On issues of growth, inflation, interest rates, unemployment and how to fight a recession, basic assumptions inside the central bank’s complex computer models have been upended.
All traders should be watching what comes out of Jackson Hole today.