OPEC is going to increase oil production. Russia has been lobbying Saudi Arabia hard to get production numbers up. If OPEC does not agree to increase production, then Game Theory kicks in overdrive as member countries will really start cheating and the entire production agreement will fall apart anyways.
My feeling is that Russia will push for something closer to 1 million barrels a day in increased production while others will push for 500K barrels per day, and still others 100K barrels per day.
Russia’s motivation is to hit the US shale industry hard.
The oil production cut has allowed the US to become the world’s largest exporter of oil. That was not the intention of the OPEC production cut deal. The US has taken market share away from Saudi Arabia and Russia. Tomorrow’s oil production hike will be the first production increase in 2 years if it happens. I think it will happen as Saudi Arabia and Russia seek to claw back some of that lost market share.
Russia always hits back when attacked. The US and NGOs struck Russia first by overthrowing the elected government of Ukraine. Russia struck back by holding free elections in Crimea. The US struck back by putting on crippling sanctions against the Russian economy which knocked it into a recession and crashed the Ruble. Russia hit back by selling false information to the Hillary Clinton campaign which then prompted Obama to allow the wire-tapping of then candidate Trump’s communications. This ultimately created a constitutional crisis of corruption at the highest levels of government never before seen in US history as an unconstitutional deep-state was revealed inside the US government. That constitutional crisis continues today with a wave of lawsuits likely to hit Democrat conspirators soon. The US hit back with more sanctions against Russia. Russia struck out and hit a former soviet spy in the UK. The US and its allies struck back with more sanctions against Russian oligarchs and Russia corporations. Russia is now in the process of striking back against the US by pushing for a big increase in oil production to push down the price of oil and put US shale drillers out of business.
This tit-for-tat between Russia and the US was started because American tax dollars and Soros funded NGOs were used to overthrow the elected government of Ukraine in an attempt to put in a new leader and put NATO missiles inside Ukraine pointed at Russia. It was a stupid move by Democrats and the Obama Administration with the support of the mainstream media and Washington elites in both Democrat and Republican parties.
President Trump was elected on a platform of working with Russia inside Syria and forming a better relationship between our two countries. Somewhere along the way in between a bogus Mueller investigation into Russian collusion and war mongering Generals allowed to shape Trump’s foreign policy, Trump lost his way from the campaign promise to improve relations with Russia.
Somebody has to be the bigger man and put an end to the tit-for-tat cold war between the US and Russia.
The US holds more cards than Russia in terms of the size of its economy and military and so the bigger man has to be the US President. To get Russia to stop hitting us, we have to stop hitting them. The Obama Administration and elites in both parties are to blame for what happened in Ukraine. US tax dollars never should have been used to fund protests and to destabilize the government in Ukraine.
President Trump has reached out to Putin and wants to meet with him. President Trump just sent Bolton to Russia to prepare for a Trump Putin summit as early as next month. Unfortunately, this meet-up between Trump and Putin comes too late for tomorrows OPEC meeting announcement.
We will see how much influence Russia has on Saudi Arabia. Russia will push for as high oil production increase as possible. If the oil production increase is greater than 500K barrels per day, we can suspect that Russia has successfully worked a relationship with Saudi Arabia and now has considerable influence now in the region. If the OPEC production increase comes in at 200K barrels per day or lower, then it suggests the Saudis are not so easily influenced by Russia.
I do not expect Saudi Arabia or OPEC to leave the current oil production levels the same or to even reduce them further.